139
FXUS63 KOAX 111738
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1138 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light, mixed-precipitation will move through portions of
  eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning. Minor ice
  accumulation could lead to travel impacts in some areas, with
  the most accumulation across northeast Nebraska into west-
  central Iowa.

- Another round of light snow is likely (60-80%) in northeast
  Nebraska and west-central Iowa late Friday night and
  Saturday. There is a 40-60% chance of minor travel impacts in
  those areas.

- Temperatures turn much colder Friday through Sunday morning
  before warming again by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Widespread radar returns continue across the area this morning,
but ASOS/AWOS sites have reported almost no precip and a perusal
of highway cameras has suggested less than 10% of the detected
snowflakes are making their way to the ground. This makes sense
as forecast soundings have indicated that the lowest 5kft will
be saturating from the top down overnight.

This precipitation is in response to warm air building in from
the west. Temperatures at 2-5 kft will warm enough by daybreak
to melt any falling snow before it finds its way to the surface.
Surface temps, however, would be sub-freezing, especially if
subjected to evaporative cooling. PoPs are highest along the
northern tier of counties. Precip probabilities of 20-40%
aren`t high enough to issue a winter weather advisory, but
confidence in the freezing rain p-type is notably higher than
normal. Should that precip materialize, an advisory may be,
well, well-advised.

The best lift pushes northeast of the area by lunch today and
light precip would end quickly early this afternoon.

High temps in the northeastern corner of the CWA will peak only
a degree or two above freezing. The southwest corner of the
forecast area will push almost 30 degrees warmer. A cold front
pushes through this evening, and will leave temperatures a
little more uniform for the weekend.

.Friday and the Weekend...

Arctic air pours into the area as another Alberta clipper sweeps
through the Great Lakes. Friday`s highs will only peak in the
20s (north) and 30s (south). Another weaker clipper drives
through the northwesterly H5 flow on Saturday, producing a
stripe of frontogenesis and resultant potential snow across the
High Plains. Confidence continues to grow that this band will
impact northeastern Nebraska and west-central Iowa. Solutions
have been trending farther south over the past three days.
Current PoPs are peaking at 80% in our northern counties. NMB
probabilities of 2" or more of snow are 50% or greater from
Norfolk and Blair, NE and Avoca, IA and all points north. That
chance is only 25% at Omaha as the forecast stands. The
probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index suggests a 60% chance
of minor travel impacts in northeast Nebraska and northwest Iowa
on Saturday.

Winds won`t be all that bad, but temps will slip lower. Highs
will mostly peak in the teens and Saturday night`s lows are
progged to end up on the wrong side of zero. Wind chills could
be as cold as -25 along the SD state line. Thankfully, this will
represent the nadir of the forecast as upper level ridging
begins to nose in from the west for early next week.

.Next Week...

Unfortunately, the ridge will be deamplifying as it approaches
from the west as an upper low cross the prairie provinces of
Canada. Still, temps will quickly moderate and push above normal
by Monday and are likely to remain above normal for the
foreseeable future. There is no strong signal for precip for
next week at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Generally expect VFR conditions through the afternoon, though a
few areas of MVFR ceilings will move through portions of
northeast Nebraska and west-central IA, along with a spotty
light wintry mix of precipitation. More widespread MVFR ceilings
will then move in from the north overnight (around or after 06Z)
and linger through the remainder of the period. Otherwise, winds
will be southerly to southeasterly through the afternoon before
becoming northwesterly this evening and overnight. Speeds will
mostly remain below 12 kts, but a few 18-20+ kt gusts will be
possible by Friday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...CA