520
FXUS63 KOAX 190849
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
249 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and drizzle should diminish slowly through the
  morning hours.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-60% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 247 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Today through Thursday...

Lower visibilities seeped into locations along and east of the
Missouri River overnight, as patchy fog and drizzle developed.
Temperatures dipped into the upper 30s and low 40s overnight, with
the cloud cover keeping the area warm enough to prevent the
development of icy patches.

Today, cloud cover will slowly decrease from west to east, as
easterly winds become southerly this afternoon. This will allow
temperatures to rise back into the low to mid 50s today, with upper
40s expected across western Iowa.

A weak cold front will drift through the region late Wednesday
night/early Thursday morning, brining winds back to the north as low
temperatures dip into the mid 30s. The frontal passage still looks
to be dry as any notable moisture remains well to the north and
south of the forecast area. Subtle upper ridging, ahead of the next
trough approaching from the southwestern CONUS, will allow
Thursday`s high temperatures to reach into the mid to upper 50s,
with a few locations again reaching 60 degrees.

Friday through Next Week...

The previously mentioned low will eject northeastward toward Kansas
on Friday. Models continue to shunt precipitation from this system
southward, clipping the southern portion of the forecast area.  Even
if we see a northward nudge to the system, rain will be forecast due
to the primary jet stream locking up the coldest air in Canada.

After a dry weekend, a second low will move out of the southwestern
CONUS, likely taking a similar path to its predecessor, bringing low
precipitation chances to the region early next week.  High
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 50s this weekend, and
early next week, after a brief dip into the 40s on Friday. But,
unfortunately, above normal temperatures won`t last forever.
Colder air looks to sink into the region by late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1056 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

MVFR ceilings expected to linger into late Wednesday
morning/early afternoon, gradually scattering out from west to
east. Could also see some patch fog development, along with
patchy drizzle, especially near and east of the Missouri River
including at OMA. For now kept visibility reductions (4SM) confined
to a TEMPO group from 10-14Z when best drizzle potential is
expected, but will need to keep an eye on trends for possible
prevailing conditions. Otherwise, expect very light winds
overnight to turn clockwise and settle in at southerly to
southeasterly Wednesday morning, with speeds around 6-11 kts
through the day.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...CA