301
FXUS63 KOAX 081658
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1058 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A brief warmup is expected Monday into Tuesday, with highs in
  the 30s and 40s on Monday, rising another 10-15 degrees on
  Tuesday.

- Precipitation chances increase late Wednesday into Thursday
  (25-50%), followed by a return to cooler conditions by the
  end of the workweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Waking to another cool morning here in the Omaha metro, but
surface analysis reveals the warm front has pushed through
Columbus, Wahoo, and Lincoln as of 2:30am. West of the front,
temps are generally in the mid-20s with mid- and low-teens east
of it.

Water vapor imagery betrays the presence of a longwave trof over
the eastern CONUS and general ridging over the West Coast. A
shortwave is easy to spot exiting southeast Missouri.

KOAX/KDMX radars are returning a few dbZs associated with the
light snow that has now moved east of the forecast area. A
dusting was reported at Lincoln, Valley, and Eppley. Papillion
recorded 0.1" and there was 0.5" at OFK. Continued warm air
advection will drive temps through the 20s today and into the
snow melting realm for all but the eastern-most points of the
CWA. Mid- to upper-40s are progged for the area`s western
fringe. Low clouds this morning will give way to partly cloudy
skies with more sunshine expected south of the interstate than
north of it.

.TUESDAY...

Surface temps will be another 10-15 degrees higher than on
Monday afternoon. Our forecast calls for 50s developing over
the western half of the CWA. NBM says there`s 70% chance of
managing 50F from Lincoln and Columbus and points west. The REFS
is much more gung-ho. Regardless, for some spots it`ll be the
warmest day since before Thanksgiving.

The active northwesterly H5 flow keeps a parade of shortwaves
driving through the Dakotas this week, but the waves of Tuesday
morning and Tuesday night are expected to pass too far to the
north to bring precip to eastern Nebraska / western Iowa.

The late Tuesday wave is the stronger of the two and is expected
to drag a cold front through the area and bring a round of
breezy winds. For a second consecutive night, I`ve boosted the
NBM`s wind speeds for Tuesday night... though have kept them
sub- advisory criteria for now.

.WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, and FRIDAY...

Wednesday will be cooler than the two previous days. The stalled
front in the area is responsible for 30-40% PoPs of light snow.
This `stationary` front is progged to oscillate north and south
over the course of Wednesday and Thursday... leaving temp
forecasts with plenty of uncertainty this far out.

Global models continue to insist on depicting another arctic
cold front on Friday. If the forecast validates, it would mean a
Saturday and Sunday morning of single digit lows. It`s quite
early in the season, but Omaha has already found itself in the
`severe` category of the "accumulated winter season severity
index". These cold air outbreaks won`t be helping.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1058 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

IFR cigs have socked in across eastern Nebraska and are
impacting all the terminals this morning. These will be slow to
clear, but we should see gradual clearing from west to east.
KOFK looks like will clear here around 19-20Z, while KOMA and
KLNK probably won`t clear until 20-22Z. Once we see VFR
conditions return, they should remain through the rest of the
evening with winds generally out of the south or southwest.
Model guidance isn`t showing it just yet, but with melting snow
today leading to plenty of low-level moisture and weakening
winds this evening, wouldn`t be surprised if we saw significant
areas of fog develop overnight tonight. If fog does impact the
terminals (30% chance at this time), it would likely be around
10-15Z Tuesday as high clouds moving in overnight could help to
hold it off until early Tuesday morning.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...McCoy