414
FXUS63 KOAX 152317
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
517 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmth lingers through Wednesday, with highs in the 40s 50s
  for most of the area.

- Chances for light precipitation are increasing Wednesday night
  into early Thursday (30-50% chance) falling mainly as rain,
  though a brief transition to a rain/snow mix will be possible
  at end.

- Windy Thursday with gusts of at least 40-50+ mph out of the
  northwest. Lingering snow chances during the afternoon could
  join the wind and heavily reduce visibility in northeast
  Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Today and Tomorrow:

Water vapor imagery this afternoon features low-amplitude ridging
over much of the Intermountain West, propped up by a deep system
pushing moisture into the Pacific Northwest while northwesterly flow
spills into the eastern half of the CONUS. Temperatures have taken
quite the turnaround, soaring into the 40s for most of the area
while areas of central and northeast Nebraska climb into the 50s and
60s. Visible satellite imagery has shown the quick erosion of
the limited snow that had been sticking around, helping to
increase surface moisture and signaling that chances for fog
formation are climbing. Temperatures overnight should cool down
into the 20s, which would be in the ball park for hitting
crossover temperatures unless we can mix out some of the
increased dewpoints. As of now, a comparison of observations,
overnight lows, and model guidance points to northwest/western-
central Iowa as the most likely area to fog up. The light winds
overnight could allow for more efficient cooling and cold air
draining and if that does happen, expect fog issues to expand
southwest, especially into some of the major river valleys
across Nebraska.

After a cool morning, above average temperatures are set to return
for Tuesday alongside continued dry weather. Winds that had been
largely out of the southwest will become northwesterly, as a surface
trough is dragged through by a system well off to the north in
Canada without much impact to temperatures. Highs should reach the
40s and 50s, and if today`s over-performing temps have any
bearing, there is likely upward potential for them as well.

Wednesday and Beyond:

The forecast`s main chance for rain comes in the form of a stronger
shortwave that dives eastward from the action affecting the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday into Thursday. As it pushes through the Northern
Plains, it deepens into a full-blown trough before quickly
exiting the area to the east. Strong winds will join this system
both in anticipation of it and with it`s departure, with gusts
Wednesday of 25-35 mph and higher speeds Thursday in the 40-50+
mph range Thursday. Dynamic temperature changes will also
accompany this system, with high temperatures Wednesday in the
upper 40s and 50s followed by highs at midnight early Thursday,
that are then followed by temps that bottom out in the single
digits and teens late Thursday. As far as precipitation goes,
the NBM has been low-balling chances due to what is expected to
be low QPF output, while ensemble members push chances to see
anything closer to 40-70%. We`re taking a measure approach to
push things in that direction without going all the way, with
most of that occurring late Wednesday in the form of rain. Some
snow chances do linger into Thursday, but they should remain in
the flurry variety, owing to steep low-level lapse rates behind
the cold front and in the strong winds that have some potential
to be snow showers. If they do occur alongside the strongest
wind gusts, it may not take much to heavily reduce visibility
despite the limited output of snow.

Once Thursday is in the rear view mirror we`ll return to quasi-zonal
flow aloft, with most of the action sticking to the northernmost
tier or two of states through the weekend. Temperatures will
respond to the northerly displacement of the jet stream and we
will enjoy above-average temperatures heading into the weekend
before Christmas -- perfect if you have some last minute
shopping to do or if you have plans with family.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 502 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated through much of the period. Light
winds should become mainly southwesterly tonight under mostly
clear skies. Patchy fog may develop, especially over west-central
Iowa around sunrise. At this time, confidence in aviation
impacts remains low. If aviation impacts were to occur, a brief
reduction to MVFR ceilings would be possible. Trends in fog
development will continue to be monitored. By Tuesday afternoon,
winds become more westerly and increase in speed slightly.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Chehak