641
FXUS63 KOAX 110505
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Becoming much warmer this week with highs reaching the 60s to
  low 70s by Friday

- Dry through the work week followed by a 20-40% of
  precipitation this weekend, though confidence is rather low in
  the details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Quiet and cool across the region today as a surface trough was
pushing through on the western periphery of an upper level
trough/cutoff low over the eastern CONUS. Temperatures as of 3
PM were in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Southwesterly winds will
pick up tonight on the back side of departing high pressure and
ahead of incoming shortwave energy and a surface front over the
Pacific Northwest. The warm air advection will lead to some
increased cloudiness to start the day, but most of those clouds
should quickly exit to our southeast and give way to decent
sunshine in the afternoon. Winds will become northwesterly
behind the front, but temperatures on Tuesday will be much
warmer with downsloping helping to warm us into the upper 50s
and 60s.

We`ll stay warm through the end of the week and possibly into
Saturday as a mid level ridge gradually shifts eastward and
southerly low level flow sets up between eastward departing high
pressure and developing low pressure east of the Rockies.
Expect highs mostly in the 60s and possibly a few 70s by Friday,
with lows mainly in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Guidance then starts to diverge quite a bit heading into the
weekend. The general idea is that a cutoff low pushes into the
Desert Southwest Friday and across the Southern Plains through
Sunday. Meanwhile, another shortwave trough and area of surface
low pressure develop over the Dakotas/southern Canada and help
to drag a cold front through the area Saturday. Guidance
indicates there will be precipitation development along the cold
front at some point, but whether that`s over us or to our east
remains the big question as there`s still lots of spread in
various ensemble members regarding timing, track, and
interaction of the various features. Overall consensus gives us
a 20-40% chance of precip Saturday afternoon, through Sunday,
with perhaps some lingering into Monday. If we do get anything,
it currently looks like it should be mostly rain, but plenty of
guidance suggests we stay completely dry, too, so overall
confidence is on the lower side regarding precip. There`s more
confidence in temperatures heading into next week, as we will
cool down behind the front, but it`s looking fairly seasonable,
with highs back in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
considerable high-level cloudiness (FL200-250) decreasing by
late Tuesday morning. South to southwest winds at 12 kt
overnight will switch to northwest in the 15-17z timeframe with
speeds of 10-13 kt. LLWS will continue at the terminal sites
through 13z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...Mead