486
FXUS63 KOAX 222027
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet conditions continue today and Sunday with highs in the
  50s and 60s. Fog may develop over western Iowa and far eastern
  Nebraska Sunday morning.

- Rain returns late Sunday night into Monday (60-80% chance).
  Cooler with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Continue to monitor forecast from Thanksgiving into the
  weekend as potential exists for snowfall, although specific
  details and confidence remain low at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

20z RAP objective analysis shows the sfc high now over Missouri into
Kansas. A sfc low is seen over western Ontario, while the cold front
extends south southwestward toward the forecast area. Latest METARs
show the front draped from the Siouxland area to Columbus to near
Kearney, Nebraska. Temperatures remained in the upper 50s to low 60s
this afternoon, with breezy northwesterly winds behind the front.
Weak lift and limited moisture along and just behind the main front
has resulted in some mid to high level cloudiness. Looking aloft at
the H5 pattern, a prominent shortwave trof axis associated with the
aforementioned disturbance extends south from western Ontario into
Minnesota. Two prominent closed lows are also seen: one entering the
southwest US and the other over far eastern Canada.

Despite the front moving through, dry conditions are expected with
most areas seeing clouds and sun today. The breezy winds will
eventually subside late this afternoon and evening. Highs are
forecast in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Lows tonight will cool to the
upper 20s to low 30s.

Sfc high pressure currently over the west will pivot and move into
the Northern Plains late tonight into Sunday. By early Sunday
morning, the ridge axis will be overtop, and with clear skies and
light winds resulting in good radiational cooling, patchy fog may
develop once again across western Iowa into far eastern Nebraska.
Recent HREF and CAM guidance continues to key in on this area for
development, so have kept mentions of patchy fog in these areas from
07z to 15z.

Fog will burn off Sunday morning, and the quiet conditions will
continue for most of the daytime as we`ll still be influenced by the
sfc high. So, expect mostly sunny skies for most of the daytime.
Highs reach the upper 50s to low 60s with light south southwesterly
winds.

By late Sunday afternoon, clouds will be on the increase as the
557dam closed low in the southwest US ejects northeast. H7-H5 Q-
vector convergence and implied lift will overspread much of the
Central and Northern Plains Sunday evening. Increasing low level
moisture transport should result in rain developing with 20 to 45%
PoPs gradually increasing from west to east. Lows Sunday night will
be in the low to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain will be ongoing Monday as the H5 cutoff low moves east across
the Central Plains. PoPs increase to 60 to 80% Monday morning over
much of the forecast period, eventually tapering off and exiting to
the east by Monday evening. Storm total QPF will be light as most
locations will see a few hundredths to around 0.15 inches. Highs
Monday reach the low to mid 50s.

After the cutoff low passes, an H5 shortwave will eject from the
Pacific Northwest to the southeast, arriving at our doorstep on
Tuesday. The shortwave will induce a sfc low which will track east
across the Dakotas into Minnesota and Wisconsin. Model guidance
suggests the sfc low will deepen across Minnesota into Wisconsin,
tightening the sfc pressure gradient over much of the Northern
Plains. Aloft, a 40-50 kt jet behind the H8 closed low coupled with
strong cold air advection should help promote strong subsidence and
lead to gusty 30 to 35 mph northwest winds. Model guidance is also
suggesting the shortwave will have enough moisture to work with
resulting in a band of precipitation forming primarily over the
Dakotas in the early morning, but this may clip far northeast
Nebraska (15-20% PoPs). Forecast BUFKIT soundings suggest that snow
would be the most likely precip type, but chances remain low for
snow to occur (~15% chance) at this time. For what it`s worth, most
ensemble guidance keeps the forecast area dry. High temperatures
Tuesday are forecast for the mid to upper 40s.

The H5 shortwave will intensify into a closed low, elongating the
longwave trof over the eastern CONUS for Wednesday. Behind the trof,
deterministic guidance suggests an area of sfc high pressure
overspreading much of the Central and Northern Plains, lingering
through Thanksgiving and Friday. Highs Wednesday through Friday
largely range in the mid 30s to low 40s. Northwesterly flow at H5
should allow for at least some shortwave energy to eject southeast,
and while the current forecast package has dry conditions persisting
from Wednesday to Friday, a minimal amount of LREF members suggest a
band of precip somewhere across portions of the Northern Plains
during this period. By the weekend, a longwave trof is progged
to amplify over the western CONUS, but lots of spread in
location/solution placement is seen. Obviously, considerable
uncertainty exists regarding precip type, amounts, feature
locations, etc., so expect further refinements and adjustments
with subsequent forecast packages. Those with travel plans
should continue to monitor the forecast for the latest
information and updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1113 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions are observed at the start of the TAF cycle. A
front will move through from northwest to southeast, switching
winds from west southwest to northwest this afternoon. Winds may
gust around 20 kts at times, primarily at KOFK while slightly lighter
winds are anticipated at KOMA and KLNK. Confidence has
increased regarding fog development after 08z across western
Iowa, eventually reaching KOMA after 12z. Have added a FM group
reducing visibilities to MVFR at KOMA for this issuance, but
expect further refinements and adjustments with subsequent
issuances.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Castillo
AVIATION...Castillo