406
FXUS63 KOAX 141727
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1127 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and potentially record-breaking temperatures
  today.

- Very high fire danger in northeast Nebraska this afternoon.

- 30 to 50 percent chance for precipitation Monday. While mostly
  rain is expected, there is a 10-25% chance for some snow to
  mix in over northeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Today...

Light patchy fog crept into low lying areas in southeast Nebraska
and southwest Iowa overnight, dropping visibilities to 3 to 7 miles
in some locations. Temperatures only dipped into the upper 30s to
mid 40s by 2 AM, with light southerly winds.

A ridge will shift eastward, bringing another push of well above
normal temperatures to the Central Plains. Southwesterly winds will
draw highs into the 70s today, with a few locations pushing toward
80. Daily records will be threatened at all three climate sites this
afternoon. Norfolk is forecast to reach 78, easily breaking the
record of 72 degrees, set in 2001. Lincoln is expected to reach 77,
surpassing their record of 75, set in 1990. Omaha`s record of 76,
set in 1964, has the best chance of surviving, as they are only
forecast to reach 76 this afternoon.

In combination with the warm temperatures, breezy southwest winds
and persistent dry conditions will bring an increased risk for fire
danger, primarily across far northeast Nebraska. There, minimum
relative humidities will dip to 19-25 percent this afternoon.
Thankfully, wind gusts will remain 20 kts or less. Therefore, kept
the region west of a line from Columbus to Wayne, NE limited to Very
High Fire Danger, with Red Flag Warnings just to the west of our
CWA. However, we will keep a close eye on conditions this afternoon,
as it wouldn`t take much for fires to spread rapidly.

Saturday and Sunday...

An upper trough moving from Canada into the Great Lakes region will
draw a surface cold front across the forecast area this weekend.
Temperatures will slip back into the mid to upper 60s Saturday with
upper 50s to low 60s forecast for Sunday. While not quite as
comfortable as Friday`s mid/upper 70s, temperatures will still be 5
to 15 degrees above normal for mid November. While a sprinkle or two
can`t be completely ruled out with the frontal passage tonight,
better columnar moisture associated with this system is expected to
remain well to our north, allowing dry conditions to prevail through
the weekend.

Monday and Beyond...

The next low pressure system to impact the region will move out of
the Rockies Sunday night, and into the Central Plains on Monday.
While the GFS continues to remain the slightly cooler solution,
indicating the potential for snow to mix in across northeast
Nebraska and western Iowa, the majority of model guidances remains
warmer. All together, ensemble solutions indicate a 40-70%
chance of precipitation, with only around a 10-25% chance for
light snow late Saturday morning through Saturday afternoon.
Thankfully, even if a few flakes do fly, impacts would be
minimal given the warm surface temperatures, as afternoon highs
are still expected to reach the 40s and 50s, Monday.

Temperatures will remain cool through the middle of next week, with
highs in the 40s and 50s Tuesday through Friday. Our next storm
system looks to arrive late Wednesday and into Thursday, likely
bringing rain to the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. South winds
this afternoon will gradually shift to southwesterly late this
evening. A passing weather system and accompanying cold front
begins to overspread the region overnight. Ahead of the cold
front, strong low-level winds may result in low-level wind shear
at times for all terminals late this evening into the early
morning tomorrow. Any low-level wind shear will subside behind the
cold front as it moves across the area bringing a northwesterly
wind shift.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Chehak