706
FXUS63 KOAX 200832
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
232 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of fog/drizzle is expected overnight, with
  visibilities dropping to near one mile after 2 AM.

- Another storm system will move into the region Friday,
  bringing a 20-60% chance for rain across southeast Nebraska
  and far southern Iowa.

- Mild, dry weather returns over the weekend before a third
  system arrives on Monday.

- Thanksgiving temperatures look slightly cooler than normal
  for this time of year (around 45 degrees for Omaha).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Today...

Winds began to shift to the north overnight, as a cold front moved
in from the northeast. Radiational cooling enhanced by clear skies
ahead of the front allowed for the development of patchy fog
early last night. Another area of fog developed behind the
front. By 2 AM the front remained draped from Neligh, NE to
Yankton, SD. Visibilities ranged from a quarter to 5 miles with
temperatures in the 30s and low 40s.

Lower visibilities are expected to continue to spread southeast
with the passing front through the early morning hours. The
rising sun will struggle to erode fog this morning. Temperatures
will vary based on how much sunlight is allowed to reach the
surface through the decreasing cloud cover. Overall, highs will
generally top out in the low to mid 50s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Fog will likely redevelop tonight, as temperatures dip into the
mid 30s and low 40s. A low pressure system will move out of the
Four Corners region and into Central Kansas tonight, with
precipitation overspreading the southern Plains. A few showers
could sneak into southeast Nebraska and far southwest Iowa late
this evening and overnight, with rain chances continuing to
overspread the southern half of the forecast area on Friday.
Temperatures will remain cooler than the previous few days,
topping out in the upper 40s and low 50s Friday afternoon.

Saturday and Beyond...

Rain chances will diminish Friday evening as the low shifts east and
subtle upper ridging builds in for the weekend. Temperatures will
rebound back into the upper 50s and low 60s on both Saturday and Sunday.

Another low will move out of the southwestern CONUS, and into the
Central Plains on Monday. This will bring another chance for showers
early next week, with the best chance once again across the southern
half of the forecast area on Monday.

A clipper system will drop southeast out of Canada by mid week
bringing noticeably cooler temperatures to the region just in
time for the Thanksgiving holiday. While the track of this
system remains uncertain at this time, if it drifts far enough
south as a few of the longer range models indicate, we could see
a couple snow flakes late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1106 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fog will be the main concern at the terminals through 15Z. Fog
has developed to the east and west of the terminals, reported at
KJYR, KMLE, K4V9, KTQE, and KOFF. Fog will continue to expand in
coverage over the next couple of hours, bringing visibility down
to MVFR to IFR levels, which will impact terminals. Patchy dense
fog may be possible in some locations; however, confidence in
this occurring at the terminals is uncertain at this time, so
this was held out of prevailing conditions. The fog should burn
off around 15-18Z. North winds will be fairly light through the
day, turning to the north- northeast heading into the afternoon
at KOFK and KOMA. Ceilings should improve to VFR heading into
the afternoon. Toward the end of the forecast period, there will
be a chance of a few rain showers at KLNK, with coverage
increasing northward to include KOMA overnight.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...ANW