359
FXUS64 KOHX 080058
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
658 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 655 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

- Low chance for scattered light rain or sprinkles tonight into
  early Monday morning. A few snow flurries possible Monday
  morning.

- Next chance for light rain Wednesday night through Friday,
  possibly ending with some light snow showers.

- Up and down temperatures this week. An Arctic blast arriving
  late week with frigid temperatures for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A disturbance accompanied by a cold front will move across the Mid
State tonight. Moisture / light rain showing up on radar across
the Ms Delta will move into mainly southern and eastern sections
of Middle TN late tonight. Rainfall will be scattered and very
light with most places seeing just "sprinkles". There may be
enough cold air for a flurries Monday morning.

High pressure will build in behind this system Monday, but as we
have seen during several recent events, the low level moisture
will linger under a strong temperature inversion, so clouds will
be slow to break up after this front. Monday will be another
chilly, cloudy day with temperatures struggling to reach 40. Wind
chills will be in the 30s through the day.

The forecast was recently updated for hourly trends, but the main
elements are on track. This includes our continued expectations
for an Arctic blast late this week that will bring the coldest air
yet this season.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Stratus once again is making today another overcast day. I`m not
sure we will be in the 50s for highs today with all the cloud cover
if it persists. Some locations on the plateau have had sunshine
until very recently, which makes me think that some spots that have
seen more sun before the clouds came in could reach the low 50s
today. The rest of us will remain in the 40s. Some rain chances will
begin to impact Middle Tennessee in the evening hours, as a cold
front moves in and pulls in just enough moisture to give us some
rain, but not much. QPF amounts look pretty dry, with guidance
suggesting probabilities for over a tenth of an inch of
precipitation are slim (<20%). Overnight into Monday morning, this
rain will changeover into flurries, but no accumulation is expected.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1035 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

After our dreary weekend, high pressure will build in through
Wednesday morning, driving temperatures into the 50s for highs. This
story changes mid-week, as a trough is expected to dig south and
bring more rain chances to Middle Tennessee. Precipitation amounts
with this system once again do not look like much in our area, with
better chances for a wetting rain in the eastern part of the state.
One notable thing is an arctic air mass from close to the arctic
circle will be behind another cold front that will move through at
the end of the week. We`re still refining exacts with how cold we
will get but it looks like this could be our first widespread run at
the teens for lows this season.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Look for another night and another day with low ceilings across
Middle Tennessee, with also some evening and overnight fog
primarily along and near the Cumberland Plateau. An inverted
surface trough has already slipped past the mid state, and an
upper trough currently situated to our west will come through
later tonight that looks to produce light precipitation, mainly
across the Cumberland Plateau, hence the PROB30 remarks at KCSV
and KSRB. Elsewhere, PoPs are too low to warrant mention in the
TAFs. There isn`t a great deal of antecedent moisture across the
region, despite the persistent low clouds; the 00Z sounding from
OHX shows a moist column up to ~800 mb, then much drier above.
Expect low clouds to linger at least through Monday, with surface
winds increasing from the NNW later this evening and persisting
tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      37  43  28  51 /  30  20   0   0
Clarksville    34  41  27  50 /  30   0   0   0
Crossville     34  39  23  48 /  40  20   0   0
Columbia       37  43  25  52 /  30   0   0   0
Cookeville     35  39  25  48 /  40  30   0   0
Jamestown      33  38  24  47 /  40  40   0   0
Lawrenceburg   37  42  25  51 /  30   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   37  43  25  51 /  20  10   0   0
Waverly        34  41  26  50 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Holley
LONG TERM....Holley
AVIATION.....Rose