011
FXUS64 KOHX 142346
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
546 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Breezy, warm on Saturday with afternoon temperatures in the
  upper 60s to the upper 70s.

- Low to medium rain chances (10-40%) Saturday night along a cold
  front, but rain amounts remain very light.

- Active weather pattern expected next week with temperatures
  favoring above normal along with rain chances most days.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Short-term forecast updates mainly targeted temperatures and wind/wind
gusts tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. It
will certainly be breezy mid morning through the afternoon. Strong
southwest winds will support warming temperatures into the 70s
west of the Plateau. In fact, we may flirt with the record high in
Nashville (record is 79). The front will move through late tomorrow
night which could contain scattered light rain showers mainly
east of I-65. Very light rain totals (less than 0.1") are forecast
across the Plateau.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

There`s been plenty of sunshine across the area this morning and
temperatures have climbed into the 60s. High pressure is centered to
the east of us and southerly low level winds are starting to
increase. Temperatures this afternoon should top out in the 70s west
of the plateau. Surface winds will remain 5-10 mph overnight not
allowing decoupling of the boundary layer, so lows will only drop
into the 50s except for the coldest locations on the plateau. The
warm weather will continue on Saturday with highs 2-3 degrees
warmer than today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1026 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will move through the area Saturday night with a low
chance of a couple light showers in the east. The cold front will
knock temperatures back on Sunday with highs in the 60s instead
of the 70s. The good news is that there will be plenty of
sunshine. As we get into the next work week, we`ll be watching a
large trough digging into the southwest US. Ahead of that large
trough a weakening shortwave will eject through the central plains
increasing rain chances locally Monday night into Tuesday. After
that, there are timing discrepancies regarding the ejection of
the next wave of energy, but it looks like another round of
showers and storms mid to late in the week. Above normal
temperatures look like they`ll continue through the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 534 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR conditions expected across Middle TN terminals through the
TAF period. Winds will increase during the morning hours with
gusts persisting through the afternoon ahead of an approaching
front. SW winds with gusts 18-25 kts are forecast along with sct
afternoon cu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      56  78  55  66 /   0   0  10   0
Clarksville    58  77  52  63 /   0   0  20   0
Crossville     48  69  54  62 /   0   0  30   0
Columbia       54  77  57  69 /   0   0  10   0
Cookeville     50  72  54  63 /   0   0  30   0
Jamestown      51  69  53  60 /   0   0  40   0
Lawrenceburg   53  77  57  69 /   0   0  10   0
Murfreesboro   53  77  56  68 /   0   0  10   0
Waverly        57  76  53  65 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Sizemore
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....Sizemore