912
FXUS64 KOHX 100042
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
642 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

- High probability for a widespread hard freeze Sunday and Monday
  nights.

- Low to medium chance (30-50%) for light snow accumulation of a
  dusting to half inch across the Plateau tonight and again Monday
  afternoon.

- Temperatures rebound to near normal values by Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 621 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

It was a cold, blustery Sunday evening with temperatures dropping
through the lower 40s to mid 30s. Northwest winds were gusting
over 20 mph at times, dropping wind chills down near 30. Scattered
very light precipitation was reported, still mainly rain but
mixed with some sleet and snowflakes. This evening`s precipitation
will shift to the Plateau where a change to all snow may bring a
dusting to one half inch accumulation. A few slick spots may
develop overnight, mainly on elevated surfaces.

The precipitation will taper down to just scattered flurries late
tonight, but the precip will increase again Monday afternoon as
another disturbance crosses the area. The second wave could produce
more accumulation for the Plateau than the first, giving amounts
around one half inch, except maybe a little more than 1 inch for
the highest elevations from Jamestown to Monterey. Outside the
Plateau, little or no accumulation is expected, but many of us
will see the first snowflakes of the season either tonight or
Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday Night)
Issued at 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The cold front has cleared Middle TN, and current temperature
readings are generally sitting in the 40s across the area. Much
colder air will continue to seep into the area as Arctic air makes
its way southward. Temperatures will fall as the day progresses,
bottoming out in the 20s tonight/early Monday morning. Highs
Monday will only warm into the 30s to low-40s, and under clear
skies Monday night/early Tuesday morning, we`ll have our coldest
temperatures of this event with lows in the teens to low-20s.

Meanwhile, we`re still watching the potential for light snow this
evening and into Monday morning. There remains a low to medium
chance for light showers this afternoon through early Monday
morning. While these showers will start as rain, falling
temperatures will allow for a changeover to snow. While flurries may
fly outside of the Cumberland Plateau, any light accumulations of a
dusting to a half inch are still favored across the higher
elevations. Models show about a 20% chance that the Upper
Cumberland from about Monterrey and into Jamestown and Pickett
County picks up near an inch of snow. This may result in a few
slick spots where snow accumulates, but no major impacts are
anticipated. An upper-level low tracking through the area on
Monday will keep low rain & snow chances across the Plateau, but
still light accumulations should keep impacts at a minimum.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1007 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

If you`re not a fan of this Arctic blast, then the mid-week period
is for you. By Tuesday, the trough responsible for this colder air
will move out, and our surface winds become southerly. Warm air
advection will help highs warm into the 40s to low-50s Tuesday, but
temperatures will quickly rebound so that by Wednesday, highs are
back in the 60s for areas west of the Plateau. With dry northwest
flow aloft, dry and calm conditions are expected through the
remainder of the week. As for the next chance of rain, we`ll have to
keep an eye on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

MVFR conditions through the TAF period. Wind gusts will be the
only concern as we could see gusts to 25 knots by tomorrow
afternoon. Sites on the plateau could see some snow showers
briefly before midnight. Winds will lessen to around 10 knots
overnight before picking back up tomorrow morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      26  40  25  52 /  20  10  10   0
Clarksville    26  41  24  52 /  10  10   0   0
Crossville     20  30  18  43 /  60  50  30   0
Columbia       25  40  21  52 /  10  10  10   0
Cookeville     22  33  19  45 /  70  30  20   0
Jamestown      21  31  19  43 /  70  70  30   0
Lawrenceburg   24  39  21  51 /  10  10  10   0
Murfreesboro   26  39  21  51 /  20  10  10   0
Waverly        24  39  22  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Holley