174
FXUS64 KOHX 261704
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1104 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Cooler temperatures persist through Thanksgiving with highs in
  the 40s and lows in the upper-teens to mid-20s.

- High rain chances return this weekend with slightly warmer
  temperatures. Precipitation chances persist into early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 1013 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A cold front has cleared the area, and temperatures are noticeably
cooler than this time yesterday with current readings in the upper-
40s to low-50s. Behind the front, northwesterly winds are breezy
with gusts of 20 to 30 mph, helping it feel cooler despite the sun.
Temperatures will continue to fall tonight with lows near the
freezing mark, and these colder temperatures will stick around
through Thanksgiving Day. Highs for the holiday will only be in the
40s. While not as breezy compared to today, wind gusts of 15 to 20
mph will persist through Thursday afternoon. All in all though,
it`ll be a pretty nice holiday with plenty of sunshine and dry
conditions. But before you head out for any post-dinner activities,
bundle up! With mostly clear skies, our coldest period of this
forecast will come Thursday night and into Friday morning with lows
in the upper-teens to mid-20s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1013 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Calm weather continues into Friday, but it`ll remain cool as our
highs stay in the 40s. Temperatures will warm a few degrees this
weekend as surface pressure heights rise. Meanwhile, an upper-level
trough will be taking shape to our west, and as it approaches,
surface winds and flow aloft will become southerly which allows
for moisture advection into our area. The upper-level trough
tracks through the Ohio River Valley late Saturday and into
Sunday, increasing our own rain chances during this time. The NBM
maintains high rain chances (60-80%) through Sunday before the
trough exits to the east. Rain amounts continue to trend down with
new model runs with ensembles giving a low chance (10-20%) that
rain amounts exceed 1 inch by Monday morning.

A cold front will move through late Sunday and into Monday, bringing
another shot of cold air as we start the month of December. From
here, models and ensembles are in good agreement that a troughing
pattern will persist into next week although they disagree on
placement and how any system tracks through the eastern CONUS. At
any rate, it does look like next week will stay active maintaining
medium (30-60%) chances for precipitation Monday through at least
the middle of next week. Something else to watch closely will be
the potential for wintry precipitation. Models have trended cooler
next week, and depending on timing of precipitation, this could
have implications on what type of precipitation we get. At this
point, don`t think it`s anything to get too worried about.
Ensembles give us about a 10% chance for anything more than a
dusting of snow, but of course, stay tuned as the forecast
continues to get refined.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds
will be gusty at 20 to 25 knots with winds diminishing around 00Z.
Northwesterly winds will strengthen again late Thursday morning
with gusts of 15 to 20 knots. Otherwise, high clouds will increase
overnight, but will clear Thursday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      53  34  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    50  33  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     53  28  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       53  34  48  25 /   0   0   0   0
Cookeville     53  31  43  21 /  10   0   0   0
Jamestown      53  29  41  21 /  10   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   54  33  48  24 /   0   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   55  33  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Waverly        50  33  46  26 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Clements
LONG TERM....Clements
AVIATION.....Clements