809
FXUS64 KOHX 020152
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
752 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 752 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

- Low to medium chances for a light accumulation of freezing rain,
  sleet, and snow for northwest portions of Middle Tennessee
  tonight into tomorrow morning. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect.

- Dry weather expected Tuesday night through Thursday with decreasing
  chances for rain Friday and Saturday.

- Temperatures remain below seasonal norms for the next several
  days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 752 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

We were getting reports of sleet earlier, but it seems that has
transitioned into all rain for now. Into tomorrow, we should see
that switch back to wintry precipitation as it exits to the east.
Forecast remains on track!

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

There`s a nice plume of west-southwesterly flow aloft overspreading
the eastern CONUS ahead of a shortwave trough moving east across the
Plains currently. High pressure to our northeast continues to
foster a dry, cold day across Middle Tennessee with light NE
winds. Upper/mid-level clouds will continue to thicken through the
afternoon with isentropic ascent increasing from the southwest as
the disturbance approaches. By late afternoon/evening, chances
for light rain increase once the lower atmosphere saturates. In
fact, rain is already now approaching far southwest Tennessee
(near Memphis). Rain will become widespread tonight with a quick
increase in the low-level jet and northward expansion of the
inverted surface trough. Surface temperatures will remain above
freezing through much of the evening. However, cooler air will
begin to advect into the northwest after 9 PM, and certainly after
Midnight. This will support a wintry mix of precipitation for
areas generally west of I-65 and north of I-40. HREF probabilities
for a light accumulation of ice/sleet/wet snow have increased to
20-50% for these areas. With possible impacts to travel for the
Tuesday morning commute, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued
which runs 9 PM tonight through 8 AM Tuesday. Once the back side
of the surface low/trough moves east, dry air will move in from
the west ending precipitation, though lingering light
snow/flurries are possible during the afternoon, especially
across the Plateau. Most of Middle TN will likely see a brief
period of wintry precip but our focus for meaningful
accumulations/impacts are focused on the advisory area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Mid-week looks to be cold and dry across the region due to
influence of high pressure at the surface, though low aloft
appears to maintain a zonal split flow configuration. A subsequent
disturbance aloft looks to enter the area late week, but guidance
has trended colder, drier for this period. PoPs have decreased
from previous forecasts but still remain low. We do not expect
wintry precipitation at this time. Temperatures continue to favor
below-normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Messy and complicated aviation forecast is upcoming. Rain is moving
into the area from the west, but once temperatures fall tonight,
wintry precipitation is expected. Precipitation is expected to be
a mixture of rain, sleet, and snow. Highest confidence in wintry
precipitation is at CKV, BNA, and MQY where TEMPO groups are in
the TAFs. Precipitation will end between 11Z and 14Z from west to
east, and then winds will become northwesterly behind a cold
front. Cigs will also drop overnight with the precipitation,
resulting in widespread IFR conditions tonight. Conditions will
gradually improve after 12Z, but MVFR conditions will likely
persist through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      32  38  24  49 / 100   0   0   0
Clarksville    29  36  21  46 / 100   0   0   0
Crossville     31  37  21  46 / 100  30   0   0
Columbia       31  38  21  50 / 100   0   0   0
Cookeville     31  36  22  46 / 100  20   0   0
Jamestown      30  36  22  46 / 100  20   0   0
Lawrenceburg   31  38  21  50 / 100   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   32  38  21  49 / 100   0   0   0
Waverly        29  36  21  46 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST Tuesday for TNZ005>007-
023>026.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....Clements