142
FXUS64 KOHX 151140
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
640 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Warm conditions once again across the mid state this morning.
Temperatures are in the 70s, upper 60s Plateau. Patchy fog will be
possible as we approach sunrise.

Surface high over Lake Michigan will give us a light
easterly/northeasterly flow for today. At the same time , however, an
upper high will begin strengthening across the deep south. This
feature will continue to strengthen as it moves to our east. A more
uniform southerly flow will set up on Sunday and Monday with
additional humidity expected. This will result in a returning chance
of mainly afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms.
Pops still look rather low with perhaps some 40% values on Monday.
Best coverage appears to be across our west given that that area
will be furthest from the upper high.

The more important story will be the heat. The high will reach the
Carolinas on Monday. Westward thermal extension will be in place,
and with 850 mb temps in the 19-21C range we will continue to see
highs in the mid to upper 90s. Sunday looks like the hottest day
with 97F expected at BNA. The one Savior will be that dewpoints
should remain in the mid to upper 60s. This should temper the heat
index just enough to keep us out of any advisory requirements. As
always though, we will need to play particular attention to areas
along the TN river. Across that area, heat index values of 100-104F
cannot be ruled out for Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

For the extended forecast, the upper high will reach the New
York/New Jersey area on Tuesday. Ridging will extend southwestward
toward our area and build with time. A moisture undercut will be
possible, especially just west of Tennessee. NBM numbers just show
10 pops so it`s unlikely that precip inclusion will occur in the
extended. But, that hot weather is going to continue. Look for mid
90s for highs through the period. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 70-75F range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

A few passing clouds are possible today, but conditions will
remain VFR across the area. Winds will be between 5 and 10 knots
out of the northeast this afternoon before going calm overnight
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      94  70  97  75 /   0   0  20  10
Clarksville    92  67  96  73 /   0   0  20  10
Crossville     88  64  89  69 /   0   0  20  10
Columbia       95  69  97  72 /   0   0  20  10
Cookeville     88  68  92  72 /   0   0  20  10
Jamestown      87  64  91  70 /   0   0  20  10
Lawrenceburg   94  69  96  72 /   0   0  20  10
Murfreesboro   95  69  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Waverly        93  69  96  73 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Whitehead