336
FXUS64 KOHX 031846
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1236 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Rain chances return Thursday night. There is a low chance of a
  wintry mix across Middle TN Friday morning. This will need to be
  monitored closely as there`s a 25-30% chance of accumulating
  ice on the Cumberland Plateau.

- Temperatures recover quickly Friday morning to limit any
  accumulating ice impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1237 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Update...

So much for the clouds! Clouds have quickly eroded over the last
two hours after every ounce of guidance suggesting they were going
to stick around. Temperatures are still going to run cool this
afternoon even with sun making a return. Have updated the grids to
reflect this. This may also open the door for more fog tonight as
grounds are still pretty saturated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1034 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

The biggest story with this forecast package is shaping up to be the
previously mentioned system tomorrow night. It still looks like the
setup is one of an overrunning scenario where rain and warm air
aloft moves in from the south and precipitates into a cold surface
layer. Now, there`s a LOT of things that will go into this,
including wetbulb temperatures, surface temperatures and how intense
the rain is that decides whether we get freezing rain out of
tomorrow night`s system. As of right now, probabilities of
getting a few hundredths of freezing rain tomorrow night stand at
25-30% on the Cumberland Plateau and 10-15% elsewhere across
Middle TN. While that doesn`t seem like a great chance, those
numbers have ticked up 10-15% in this morning`s NBM/LREF suite.
We`ll get into HREF territory later today, but let it be said one
of its members (HRRR) is showing a little less than a tenth of an
inch of ice on the Cumberland Plateau tomorrow night. For now,
we`ll highlight the highest probability is a cold rain, but there
is a low risk of a swath of mixed wintry precipitation somewhere
in Middle TN.

Precipitation in whatever form it ends up being should be out of
here mid-morning on Friday and while there might be some clearing of
these clouds Friday afternoon, our next weather system will likely
push additional (or continued) cloud cover into the mid-state
Saturday and rain chances Saturday night right into Sunday. The NBM
is showing these rain chances as low due to inconsistencies from
model to model, so this will likely have to be revisited a couple of
times over the next few days. In either scenario, temperatures
through this forecast will remain several degrees below normal for
this time of the year. After the Saturday night/Sunday rain chances,
we should dry out for a couple of days before another system enters
the picture mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1114 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Satellite is starting to show low clouds breaking up and we should
see gradual clearing as the afternoon goes on with VFR conditions
expected by 21z. Mid level clouds build in during the evening and
overnight and there is a moderate chance of MVFR cigs returning
to KCKV tomorrow morning. Southerly winds up to 6 knots through
the afternoon becoming northerly under 5 knots overnight. No
precip through the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      31  41  33  46 /   0  10  60  30
Clarksville    28  36  29  43 /   0  10  20  20
Crossville     28  40  30  42 /   0  10  90  60
Columbia       30  42  33  47 /   0  10  90  30
Cookeville     29  40  31  43 /   0  10  90  50
Jamestown      28  38  29  42 /   0  10  80  60
Lawrenceburg   30  43  34  46 /   0  10  80  40
Murfreesboro   29  42  33  46 /   0  10  90  40
Waverly        30  37  29  44 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Unger
SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller