322
FXUS61 KOKX 262043
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
343 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches moves across the area tonight. The
region will then remain between strong low pressure to the
north and high pressure well southwest for the remainder of the
week. Strong high pressure will build across on Saturday, then pass
east of New England Saturday night. Low pressure moving across
the upper Great Lakes on Sunday will send a cold front across
Sunday night, followed by strengthening high pressure building
across on Monday. The high will retreat into New England Monday
night into Tuesday as low pressure approaches from the
southwest. The low will pass east on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Closed upper low over the Great Lakes will send a cold front
across the area this evening. Ahead of the front, mild
conditions will continue along with low clouds and some fog.

Locally dense fog is possible across central/eastern Long Island
into early this evening. Have issued a special weather statement
for Suffolk County. Fluctuations in visibilities are likely
and conditions may be better heading north of the LIE. A short-
fused advisory issuance remains possible. Some of this fog may
reach into coastal CT, but confidence remains low.

A few showers are also possible ahead of the front. A broken
band of showers may also accompany the actual cold front passage
between 7pm NW of NYC, 8-10pm, along Hudson River/NYC metro,
then 10pm-12am out east. The showers will be quick moving with
little impact anticipated.

Clouds will quickly clear behind the front along with much cooler
and drier air advecting into the area. Strong cold advection
commences as well, which will lead to increasing boundary layer
mixing. Winds will quickly pick up out of the west once the front
passes. There is a potential for gusts to peak around 40 mph with
the front. Winds and gusts will then decrease somewhat early
Thanksgiving morning, but still remain gusty with gusts 20-30 mph
possible.

Temperatures by day break Thanksgiving will range from the mid to
upper 30s with wind chills potentially as low as the mid to upper
20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key points

* Brisk conditions expected on Thanksgiving with winds 15-20 mph
  gusting 25-35 mph. Daytime temperatures reach the low to mid 40s,
  but wind chills stay in the 30s.

* Brisk and chilly conditions continue on Friday with potential of
  stronger winds. Sustained winds 20-25 mph possible with gusts 30-
  40 mph. A few gusts up to 45 mph are possible. Wind chills stay
  mostly in the 20s to lower 30s.

Deep upper troughing along with a closed upper low will persist over
the eastern US through the end of the week. Surface low pressure
will reside over southeast Canada Thanksgiving morning and then
slowly lift towards the maritimes through Friday night. Strong high
pressure will remain across the Plains on Thanksgiving and then
slowly shift east on Friday. This will leave the region between
these two systems, setting up a strong pressure gradient over the
area. Model soundings are indicating modest mixing on Thanksgiving,
with a subsidence inversion between 5-10 kft. Low level winds
average around 25 kt within the boundary layer. Cold advection will
continue with the mixing allowing winds to reach 15-20 mph along
with gusts 25-35 mph, strongest near the coast. Maintained
continuity with previous forecast which continues to be around or
slightly above the 90th percentile of the NBM for wind gusts.
Scattered to broken stratocu clouds are possible, especially in
the afternoon.

Thursday night will be cold with temperatures bottoming out in the
mid 20s inland and lower 30s closer to the coast. Combining the
winds it could feel like the upper teens to low 20s at times early
Friday morning.

Friday still looks like the strongest winds although there remains
uncertainty, especially with peak gusts and timing. Models have
trended slightly weaker overall over the last 24 hours. However,
similar patterns in the last few months have resulted in stronger
wind gusts, especially compared to the NBM and even the 95th
percentile of the NBM. Previous forecasts have been going above
the 95th percentile and this still seems reasonable, especially
for Friday afternoon. Mixing is expected to be deeper, up to
6-8kft. Winds in this layer may reach 40-45 kt at times Friday
afternoon. There is always a question of how much of this mixes
to the surface. Cold advection, subsidence, and westerly flow
along with the deep mixing support potential of gusts 40-45 mph
Friday afternoon. These values are just below wind advisory, but
it is not out of the question for a wind advisory to be needed
in subsequent forecasts.

Otherwise, temperatures will likely be a few degrees colder in the
lower 40s. Several vortmaxes within the upper trough pass through
the area. Some snow showers/flurries may reside just NW of the area.
A few flurries could push into the Lower Hudson Valley. Winds should
start to weaken Friday night as surface high pressure starts
building closer to the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Saturday will be cold and brisk as high pressure builds from the
  west.

* Sunday will feature near to slightly above normal temperatures
  ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. Cold fropa should
  take place Sunday night, preceded/accompanied by some showers.

* Monday should be mainly dry and becoming colder as strengthening
  high pressure slides across.

* The first widespread wintry precipitation event of the season may
  occur mainly from Tuesday into Tuesday night as the high retreats
  into New England and low pressure approaches from the southwest,
  riding a frontal boundary to the south.

NWP guidance is consistent through early next week on the idea of
vertically stacked high pressure sliding across on Sat, then an
upper trough and sfc low moving through the upper Great Lakes on
Sunday and sending a sfc cold front toward the area on Sunday. As
this upper trough moves across the Northeast Sunday night the cold
front should move through, with mid level confluence in its wake
supporting high pressure moving across from the west.

Forecast certainty of course diminishes farther out in time as flow
aloft becomes WSW aloft and a srn stream upper trough moves across
the Plains states on Tue and then toward the Mid atlantic Coast on
Wed. Forecast follows the NBM and keeps precip character light at
best for Mon night should any even occur during that time frame.
Better chances for precip attm appear to be Tue into Tue night as
better forcing with the approaching sfc low approaches, with precip
mostly rain for NYC and coastal sections, and either snow or a
rain/snow mix inland. As the low passes by and temps cool off Tue
night into Wed AM, precip could go over to all snow inland and
rain/snow for NYC/coastal sections. However, usual questions re
phasing of srn/nrn streams and and ridging off the Southeast coast
that could influence low track, and strength of mid level confluence
with the polar jet and sfc high pressure to our northeast for supply
of cold air, all come into play. In particular, the polar jet to the
northeast could be modeled as too strong and the ridge off the SE
coast too weak, both of which could lead to a low track slower to
the area and a warmer solution overall. Meanwhile a less phased
solution could lead to a low track farther south and a somewhat
colder scenario. Because of these uncertainties the forecast trend
will be more important than the actual details until we get into
closer range.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A cold front continues to approach from the west with passage
expected this evening into late tonight. The associated low
pressure system remains over southeastern Canada through
Thanksgiving Day.

At the NYC terminals and west conditions have improved to VFR.
However, that is expected to be brief with MVFR conditions
returning by 23Z. To the east conditions remain IFR to LIFR,
with pockets of MVFR. Conditions are expected to remain IFR to
MVFR until a cold frontal passage late this evening. A chance of
showers ahead of the cold front remain and is an hour or so
slower, from 23Z to 01Z west and 02Z to 04Z east with mainly
MVFR, and a low chance of IFR. The rain may be briefly heavy.
Quickly becoming VFR with the cold frontal passage, and
remaining VFR through the remainder of the forecast.

S/SW flow 10 kt or less ahead of a cold front into early this
evening. Winds shift to the W and become gusty once again late
evening and through tonight behind the frontal passage. Gusts
tonight around 25 kt possible. W flow increases Thanksgiving Day 15
to 20 kt, with gusts mainly 25 to 30 kt, and briefly higher along
the coast late morning into the afternoon. Winds and gusts begin to
diminish toward sunset.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for changing flight categories, MVFR possibly
briefly IFR, into early this evening, then VFR.

Wind gusts may begin an hour earlier than forecast and be briefly
higher at the onset.


.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. W flow 15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt,
diminishing to 10-15 kt gusts 20-25 kt late afternoon.

Friday: VFR. W flow 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt.

Saturday: VFR. NW flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Sunday: VFR in the morning then MVFR or lower with rain during the
afternoon and at night. S flow with gusts 15-20 kt.

Monday: VFR. Slight chance of showers in the morning.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Dense fog is expected on the waters east of Fire Island Inlet,
across LI Bays, and Long Island Sound east of New Haven/Port
Jefferson. Have issued an advisory, which runs through 8pm.
There is a chance the dense fog expands further west after
sunset, but confidence is not high enough at this time. The
advisory may also need to be extended beyond 8 pm for some of
the waters as the main cold front will not pass across the
waters till late this evening.

The passage of the cold front passes tonight allows winds to
increase on all waters. SCA gusts 25-30 kt are expected through
Thursday night. A few gale gusts are possible immediately behind
the cold front passage, but are not expected to be frequent.

SCA gusts and seas will continue Thursday night. No longer
anticipating gale potential Thursday night so have converted the
watch to an SCA. Winds will then increase on Friday with widespread
gales possible. Based on collaboration with neighboring offices,
have maintained the gale watch for now on all waters. Winds should
fall back to SCA levels on Friday night.

Ocean seas 6-9 ft are expected by Thursday, persisting through
Friday. Seas each of Moriches Inlet could build close to 10 ft
by Friday. Waves on Long Island Sound look to range between 4
to 7 ft, especially Thursday night through Friday.

Lingering SCA cond on the ocean Sat AM should subside by
afternoon as high pressure builds across. Increasing S flow
ahead of a cold front Sunday in to Sunday evening could bring a
return of SCA cond to the ocean, far ern Long Island Sound and
the Long Island south shore/ern bays, with gusts 25-30 kt and
ocean seas building to 5-7 ft. Winds diminish after cold fropa
Sunday night, with lingering 5-ft seas on the ocean after
midnight, then quiet cond on all waters by early Mon morning as
high pressure returns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through middle of next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-
     340-345-350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Friday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BG/DS
HYDROLOGY...BG/DS