050
FXUS61 KOKX 031138
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
638 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass south of Nova Scotia this morning,
followed by high pressure building from the west this afternoon.
The high will weaken tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front
will pass through Thursday afternoon, followed quickly by
another strong high pressure system building from the west
Thursday night into Friday. The high will pass east Friday
night, then low pressure passing off the southern Mid Atlantic
coast will skirt the area Friday night into Saturday. Weak high
pressure will return Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold frontal passage Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SPS has been issued for patchy black ice until 9AM as roads are
still wet and temperatures are right around freezing. Black ice
has been observed in parts of eastern Suffolk County.

Expect mostly sunny skies through the day, with diminishing NW
winds backing W this afternoon as high pressure builds in. Temps
should reach the lower 40s in the NYC metro area and along the
coast, and the upper 20s inland.

Tonight should be mostly clear to partly cloudy for most of the
area, but areas well inland NW of NYC may see a period of
mostly cloudy skies via WAA aloft well ahead of an approaching
cold front. Low temps should be achieved by midnight, then as
weak WSW flow/WAA commence temps may level off overnight, with
lows from the lower 30s in NYC to the 20s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold frontal passage will usher in a quick shot of very cold
  air Thursday night into Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with
  some light snow/rain Friday night.

NBM brings the cold front through dry Thu afternoon, but NAM
guidance shows some CAPE and a snow squall parameter favorable
for at least some widely sct snow showers inland, where high
temps will be 35-40, and rain/snow showers for the NYC metro
area and coastal sections, where highs will be in the lower 40s.

A gusty NW flow will usher in very cold air for Thu night into
Fri, with low temps from the lower 20s in NYC, to the teens most
elsewhere, to some single digits well inland, with wind chills
as low as the single digits inland and the teens elsewhere.
Temps may have a hard time rising above freezing in the NYC
metro area and coastal sections on Fri, and it should remain
quite cold inland, with highs only 25-30. Record low temps for
BDR/LGA/JFK, and record low maximum temps for all climate sites
except NYC, may be in jeopardy on Friday. See the Climate
section for current records.

As the high slides east Fri night, the precip shield with weak
low pressure passing well south off the Mid Atlantic coast may
skirt the area. Forecast carries 40 PoP for Long Island, 30 PoP
most elsewhere, and it may remain completely dry in Orange
County with only 20 PoP. Any snow amts would be on the light
side, with no more than a coating mainly for NYC metro/Long
Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Precip shield with low pressure passing well to the south may
  still be skirting the area Saturday morning.

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal.

By Saturday morning, the low will be passing the area well to
the south, but still may be able to continue to bring precip
through the late morning. Thermal profiles supportive of light
snow into Saturday morning, then a transition to a light
rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all rain across ern Long
Island and coastal SE CT for late morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build to the southwest of the area today. The
high weakens tonight as a cold front approaches from the
northwest.

VFR.

Winds will be NW to WNW around 10 kt or less into this
afternoon. Winds then back to W less than 10 kt, with winds becoming
light and variable toward 00Z Thursday outside of the NYC metro
terminals.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.
Potential for afternoon rain/snow shower activity with a cold
frontal passage.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of
the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect for all waters until 6 AM, with NW winds
gusting to 25-30 kt. Seas 5-7 ft (highest east) should continue
on the ocean waters through the morning, then E of Fire Island
Inlet into this afternoon/evening.

Seas 5+ ft should continue on the ern ocean waters tonight,
then spread to all ocean waters daytime Thu ahead of a cold
front, along with gusts up to 25 kt. After fropa in the
afternoon, expect gales on the ern ocean waters from l;ate Thu
afternoon into Thu evening, and a Gale Watch has been issued. A
few gusts up to 35 kt may also occur on the non ocean waters
during this time. Ocean seas should build to 5-8 ft by thu
evening, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.

Winds and seas quickly ramp down late Thu night, with sub-SCA
cond on all waters by daytime Fri and continuing through the
weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Surge guidance predicts water levels to reach minor flood
thresholds in spots on the tidal waters of NE NJ. This does not
make sense given ongoing NW flow, but it is possible that water
levels could recover as winds relax. Have not issued any
statement due to low confidence in this scenario.

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport
and Stamford tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as
low pressure passes well south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for KBDR/KLGA/KJFK, and record low maximum
temps for all climate sites except KNYC, may be in jeopardy on
Friday December 5th.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX radar is out of service.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG
CLIMATE...BG
EQUIPMENT...BG