157
FXUS61 KOKX 012048
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
348 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure retreats offshore tonight. A coastal low forms along
the Mid Atlantic coast early on Tuesday, passes southeast of
the area Tuesday evening, and to the Canadian Maritimes by
Wednesday morning. High pressure builds in for Wednesday. A
cold front passes through on Thursday, with strong high pressure
building across from the west Thursday night into Friday. Low
pressure will then pass to the south and east Friday night into
Saturday, with weak high pressure returning Saturday night into
Sunday, followed by another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Shortwave trough slides east through the mid-Mississippi River
valley tonight, with high pressure overhead sliding offshore and
southern low tracking into the SE US.

Early lows in the 20s across the interior and LI pine barren, and
within a few degrees of freezing elsewhere. Temps are expected to
rise late tonight, particularly for the coastal plain, with
developing onshore flow and increasing cloud cover. Temps for NYC/NJ
metro, LI, and CT/Westchester shoreline likely to be above freezing
before onset of any precip. Low probability for light snow
developing before 7am, mainly for areas west of the Hudson R.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
What`s Changed:

* Snowfall totals have been lowered further across the area,
  with a slight decrease in QPF for Tuesday.

Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisories now in effect for Orange, Putnam,
  Rockland and Western Passaic Counties on Tuesday.

* Coastal storm to bring an accumulating snow to interior
  portions of the local Tri-State, mainly north and west of
  I-287 in NJ and NY, and I-84/I-684 in S CT. After a brief
  start as wet snow, plain rain for city/coast.

Models continue in good agreement with a quick moving Mississippi
River valley shortwave pivoting towards the area Tuesday afternoon,
and then across the region Tuesday Night, with coupled upper jet
stricture developing over the area Tue aft/eve. At the surface,
coastal low pressure develops off the SE US coast early Tue AM,
and tracks NE Tue afternoon, to just inside of the 40/70 lat-
lon benchmark by Tue eve.

Approaching low/mid level trough from the west and inverted surface
trough extending towards the coast ahead of developing surface low,
will allow for strengthening waa/onshore flow along the coastal
plain late tonight/Tuesday morning. Good model agreement in the
850mb low tracking over the coastal plain Tuesday aft/eve, which
climatologically indicates a quick warm-up along the city/coast,
relegating accumulating snowfall to areas well N&W of NYC/NJ metro.
Additionally, the gradual intensification of low pressure as it
track south of LI, and quickly retreating high pressure, lends
to less confidence in colder thermal profile being able to lock
in.

Precipitation develops from w to e from around daybreak thru mid
morning. A brief start as wet snow or snow/rain mix for
NYC/NJ metro and immediate coast, with no accum. Precipitation
will start as wet snow for areas N&W of I-95, but likely
transition to rain/snow then snow fairly quickly thru the
morning from SE to NW. Areas north and west of I-287 in NJ/NJ
and I- 84/I-684 in S CT should be able to maintain marginally
cold thermal profile into early afternoon for a slushy 1 to 3"
accum before changing to rain, and possibly briefly ending as
wet snow in the early evening.

Western portions of Orange county (NW of Hudson highlands) appears
cold enough to remain all snow through the event (ending by early
Tue evening) for a heavy wet 3-5" inches of snow, with high-res
guidance indicating potential for occasional snowfall rates of
1"/hr mid morning into the afternoon.

Overall snowfall amounts may need to be adjusted an inch or so up or
down based on changeover timing, but trend the last 24 hours has
been slightly warmer and lower qpf.

Temperatures should rise above freezing for all but Orange
county by early Tue aft, upper 30s/lower 40s for NYC/NJ metro,
and as high as upper 40s for areas Se of the coastal front.
Temps dropping into the

Winds pick up in wake of low pressure Tue aft/night with NW winds 15
to 25 gusts to 35 mph. The combo of snow load and winds could
result in a few downed tree branches/power outages mainly
across Orange county Tue aft/night.

Refreezing of any standing water is likely Tuesday night as much of
the area drops below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected through the period, running as
  much as 10-15 degrees below normal Thursday night and Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area Friday night into
  Saturday.

NBM closely followed through the period. Low temperatures in the
teens for most spots Thursday night along with wind chills 5-15
above zero, which would not require any Cold Weather Advisories.

Next chance of precipitation would be Friday night into Saturday.
Global deterministic models and ensembles disagree regarding how far
north an area of weak low pressure tracks off the eastern seaboard
during this period. NBM favors a more northerly track, but is still
south of the 40N/70W benchmark. Models do however agree on a
progressive storm track based on the flow aloft, helping minimize
any impacts. The rain/snow line would probably be somewhere over the
forecast area during the event, but too early for any specifics or
high confidence.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mostly VFR as high pressure retreats offshore tonight. A
coastal low will then pass southeast of the area Tuesday.

Gusty NW winds will continue to lower this afternoon. A few
occasional gusts to 15 kt are possible before 00Z. Winds
continue to diminish to become light NE tonight then E on
Tuesday. Winds tonight into early Tuesday drop to less than 10
kts.

MVFR/IFR conditions expected on Tuesday as precipitation begins
to move across the area with possible LIFR. Along the coast it
will remains as plain rain with snow across the NW. A
transition zone of rain/snow NW of the NYC metro terminals
expected in the morning. Widespread IFR late morning into the
afternoon with rain, moderate to briefly heavy at times. Precip
at KSWF could mix with rain in the afternoon before tapering off
in the evening.

Light E winds should become NE 5-10 kt Tuesday afternoon, N
10-15 kt in the evening, then NW around 10 kt later Tuesday
night. Gusts 20-25 kt at night, highest in the evening and at
the NYC metro/coastal terminals.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments possible to refine timing of categorical changes and
precipitation timing. Timing could be 1-4 hours off from TAF.

Some fluctuation between categories is possible Tuesday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: Conditions gradually improve, with VFR
conditions expected later Tuesday night.

Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20kt early.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR. Chance of snow and/or rain after midnight with MVFR
or lower cond possible.

Saturday: VFR with chance of snow and/or rain diminishing
Saturday afternoon.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A brief period of marginal SCA gusts likely to develop on the
ocean waters Tue AM, before widespread spread SCA conditions on
all water Tue afternoon into Wed morning on all water in wake
of deepening low pressure. Occasional gusts to 35 kt possible,
particularly ocean waters.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling below
advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and seas then begin
to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday morning ahead of a
cold front that passes through in the afternoon and brings marginal
gales on the ocean waters. SCA conds otherwise likely on all waters
late Weds night into Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday
night. Sub-advisory conditions then follow thereafter.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
3/4 to 1 1/2 inches of liquid equivalent expected on Tuesday.
Peak rainfall rates of up to 1/4"/hr along the coast.

Minor nuisance and poor drainage flooding is possible,
especially with snow melt and clogged drains.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     NYZ067>069.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     NJZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 10 AM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JM/99
MARINE...JC/NV
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV