483
FXUS61 KOKX 181823
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
123 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick-moving low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the
region Thursday, before exiting offshore ahead of a frontal
system that impacts the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure
then briefly returns the second half of the weekend and remain
into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak high pressure builds over the region today before a fast
moving low passes south of the area late tonight. Lighter flow
than recent days with a more relaxed pressure field as the high
builds overhead and deep low pressure over Atlantic Canada
continues to exit.

Weak high pressure associated with deep dry air is located over
New England into southern CT. Cold air aloft helping to deepen
the mixed layer is allowing for some surface WNW gusts to around
25 mph but these gusts will be easing by sundown. To the west
is a weak-amplitude shortwave trough and sfc low pressure over
the lower OH Valley. This progressive wave will pass through
eastern PA overnight and into the waters south of Long Island
into Wed. Modest burst of warm advection associated with the
sfc low will allow for a shield of precip to break out after
midnight tonigh from west to east. Even factoring in potential
wet-bulb cooling, precip is expected to fall as plain rain for
NW NJ and NYC/LI overnight into the early Wed morning hours.
Rain amts are not significant with totals around a tenth of an
inch or less in most areas, limited by the fast- moving nature
of this low. Further northwest into the Western Highlands and
into southern CT, drier air will be tough to fully scour out and
could create a pretty sharp south-to-north gradient in the
precip shield. Were anything to fall in these locations, and
it`s debatable given the drier air below cloud base, precip may
mix with wet snowflakes but impact would be nil from these. Lows
upper 20s to freezing for southern CT/Lower Hudson to the mid
30s to low 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure exits to our southeast and offshore during the Wed
morning hours. High pressure then reasserts from the northwest.

Areas of rain to taper off from NW to SE through Wed morning,
with overcast skies improving to partly to mostly sunny
conditions for Wed and again into Thurs. Temperatures should
still be pretty seasonable by mid November standards in the 40s.

Light winds and lingering moisture in the low levels should
allow for widespread areas of frost to develop overnight into
Thu AM, but mainly for colder inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall no substantial change for late in the workweek into
early next week. Frontal system for Fri could be a little
moisture starved which could limit QPF amts. Remainder of the
forecast and key messaging below remains valid.

Key Points:

* A frontal system will impact the region Friday into Saturday as
  low pressure passes north of the region. A warm front remains near
  the region on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first
  part of next week with dry conditions.

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for
  this time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18z Update: VFR through at least 06z Wed, with initial WNW
winds 12-15 kt with gusts low-20s kt range; gusts decrease by
21-22z Tue with winds backing to W and easing to around 5-10 kt.
Ceilings steadily lower after 06z to MVFR as precip breaks out
from W to E with light winds. Drier air entrenched over CT could
produce a pretty sharp south-to-north gradient in precip.
Thinking best chance for light rains with MVFR ceilngs/visbys
for the NYC hubs as well as ISP between 07-14z Wed; further
north, light rain could mix with wet snowflakes at SWF but
given drier air which could dry up some of the precip on the
northern edge, left as a prob30 group for SWF. Gradual
improvement to categories into the VFR range around 13-17z Wed
W to E, with winds becoming NE around 5 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Ceilings could fall into IFR range for a brief period overnight
to early Wed AM if steadier rains develop. Improvement timing
shown in TAFs Wed could slip an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Wednesday through Thursday: Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. S
winds G15-20kt Friday and Saturday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas have now fallen below small craft advisory
criterion, and should remain so through at least Saturday. SCA
conditions look to return on the ocean Sunday night into the
first part of next week as the gradient tightens and seas build
to 5 ft or greater.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through early
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
MARINE...99
HYDROLOGY...99