249
FXUS61 KOKX 102045
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
345 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another cold front moves through this evening with high pressure
building south of the area. Another weak frontal system approaches
Wednesday, moving through into early Thursday. High pressure builds
in Thursday into Saturday, and moves offshore Saturday night. A
frontal system approaches late Saturday night into Sunday and passes
through the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
The complex frontal system that remains over and east of the area
will continue to gradually shift even further north and east tonight
with perhaps some additional showers through the early evening. A
secondary cold frontal passage will then very quickly advect
colder and drier air into the area tonight. This will be the
coldest air of the season so far.

Temperatures are expected to rapidly drop into the 30s this evening
with much of the interior portions of the area continuing to drop
into the middle to upper 20s. Much of the coastal areas will drop to
near freezing. As such, these areas are under a Freeze Warning
through early Tuesday morning.

Additionally, as the low moves northeast and high pressure slowly
builds south of the area, the increasing pressure gradient will
allow for an increase in wind speeds overnight. This will result in
sustained winds tonight 10-15 mph with gusts upwards of 25-30
mph. This combined with the cold air will allow the air to feel
like the upper teens inland and in the low 20s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The larger scale trough axis swings over the East Coast into Tuesday
with some mid-level energy passing by as well. Winds continue to be
gusty on Tuesday as enhanced mixing will allow for wind speeds
to increase to winds sustained 15-25 mph with gusts upwards of 40-45
mph possible.

Instability will develop through the day with the cold upper trough
overhead. This will likely result in widespread cumulus through the
late morning and early afternoon. The efficient mixing in the BL may
actually allow for the development or advection of showers from the
NW under the brisk flow. Some hi-res CAMs indicate that some of
these instability showers may make their way into and through the
area, possibly even to the coast. Given how cold the BL will be,
despite surface temperatures in the upper 30s or even lower 40s,
it`s very possible for there to be showers consisting of snow and
rain, though plain snow is expected for inland areas if any showers
move through. Given the brief nature of any snow showers, no
accumulation is expected, though a dusting or coating of snow can`t
be ruled out for inland areas on colder or grassy surfaces in a more
persistent snow shower.

By Tuesday night, high pressure noses in a bit more with a wind
shifting out of the W/SW. Winds will remain gusty but weaken a bit
from during the day. Despite another night with lows in the low to
middle 30s, the persistent wind may largely prevent frost formation
but this will be refined over the next 24 hours to determine if any
headlines are necessary.

Another weak frontal system will approach the area on Wednesday with
high temperatures on Wednesday moderating a bit as compared to
Tuesday with highs in the middle to upper 40s inland and near 50
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key points:

* Dry conditions Thursday through Saturday as high pressure builds
  into the region.

* A frontal system approaches late Saturday and moves across the
  region Monday with chances for light light rain.

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
  time, and around 5 to 8 degrees below normal Friday night
  through Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow continues Thursday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A wave of low pressure along a cold front over eastern
areas will move northeast this afternoon into the evening. The
terminals will be situated between deepening low pressure to the
north and building high pressure to the south tonight through
Tuesday.

Conditions continue to vary from IFR to isolated VFR. Expect
these conditions to continue through around 00Z, with a return
to VFR thereafter. Showers have pushed east of the Lower Hudson
Valley and NYC terminals and continues to push northeast this
evening. Confidence in flight categories remains low.

WNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt for the rest of this
afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt are expected overnight, but could
become occasional, especially at outlying terminals. WNW winds
increase Tuesday morning to 20-25 kt sustained with gusts 30-35
kt. Peak gusts to around 40 kt possible.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for flight categories into early this evening as
uncertainty remains with the timing and extent of MVFR ceilings.

Gusts may become occasional overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt. Peak gusts to 40 kt possible. Slight
chance of snow showers at NYC metro terminals that could bring brief
MVFR conditions.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-30kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW winds G20-30kt.

Friday: VFR. WNW winds G15-20kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas gradually increase into tonight with Small Craft
Advisories in effect.

A Gale Warning is in effect on all waters for Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Winds will gust as high as 35 to 40 kts and seas
will reach around 10 ft on the ocean.

Conditions on the waters may fall below gale conditions by
Wednesday morning, but all waters likely remain in Small Craft
conditions with persistent W/NW winds.

SCA conditions will likely be on-going across the forecast waters
Thursday with a gusty northwest flow behind a departing frontal
system. High pressure builds in through Thursday, and during
Thursday evening the non ocean waters fall below advisory levels.
SCA conditions remain on the ocean waters Thursday night and Friday,
and drop below advisory Friday evening as the high builds over the
waters. Sub advisory conditions are then expected across the
forecast waters through Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected through the weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NJZ006-104-
     106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW