408
FXUS61 KOKX 042322
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
622 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight into
Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low
pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well
out to sea on Saturday. A cold front moves through Sunday
night. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west,
remaining in control through Tuesday. Low pressure may impact
the area mid next week as it passes to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The cold front continues to work its way across the region this
evening. NW winds 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph possible this
evening, but will quickly diminish overnight as high pressure
settles over the area.

Temperatures plummet tonight thanks to arctic high pressure
building in behind the cold front, reaching the single digits
in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower
20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low
temps may be approached or set.

Wind chills will be in the teens this evening with the strongest
winds. While winds will be lighter towards early morning, wind
chills in the single digits are possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with
  some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday.

Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the
mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s
across eastern Long Island.

Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a
southern stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due
E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light
snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain
or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out.
The best chance for precipitation looks to be after midnight
Friday night as an inverted trough extending from the low moves
into the region.

Low temps Fri night will be in the teens to 20S, with lower 30s
expected in NYC. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will
be a couple of degrees warmer. Highs on Sat will be in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early
  next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in the
  upper 20 and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in the
  single digits and teens.

* A period of precipitation is possible Sunday night into Monday,
  and could bring light snow to portions of the area should it
  occur, mainly north of the I-95 corridor.

Troughing aloft across much of the Eastern US to start the period. A
cold front moves across the area Sunday night that ushers in a
modifying arctic air mass through early next week.

While the frontal passage, at this time, appears moisture starved,
still have to monitor this period as there are differences amongst
guidance handling two separate shortwaves traversing east. The 12Z
GFS/GEFS depicts more interaction with these waves, inducing surface
low development off the New England coast on Monday, and bringing a
period of light rain and snow to the region. Other guidance is much
more separated and drier as a result, and this wetter solution is
being considered an outlier with this update. Still a period to
watch though over the next couple of days as these differences
resolve.

Regardless thereafter, 1030 mb surface high builds east over the Mid
Atlantic into Tuesday, keeping conditions cold and dry locally.
Daytime highs both Monday and Tuesday look to remain mostly in the
30s, or even 20s inland, and a gusty NW flow behind the front will
add to the cold. Morning wind chills Tuesday could fall into the
single digits to near 0 inland, and teens along the coast, which
would not warrant any cold headlines.

A clipper system may move through the Northeast on Wednesday,
bringing the next chance for precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front continues moving offshore this evening. High
pressure then builds in from the west overnight and settles over
the area Friday morning. The high weakens Friday afternoon as
low pressure passes well to the south.

VFR through Friday afternoon. MVFR ceilings should develop near
the coast in the evening. There is also a chance of some
flurries or light snow near the coast in the evening, but little
to no impact to visibilities/ceilings are currently anticipated
if this activity develops.

NW winds 15-20 kt with gusts 30-35 kt to start will quickly
diminish tonight with gusts likely ending 04-06z. Winds veer to
the N-NE late tonight/early Friday morning, then E-SE Friday
afternoon. Wind speeds will be light, generally around 5 kt.
Some outlying terminals may remain light and variable through
Friday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

A peak gust around 35 kt possible through 02z.

End time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours.

Timing of MVFR ceilings late Friday may be off by several hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: MVFR, especially close to the coast. Low chance
of light snow/flurries at night.

Saturday: MVFR possible in the morning with a low chance of
mainly light rain E of the NYC metros. Otherwise, VFR prevails.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and light rain/snow mix at
night.

Monday-Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW gales continue on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of
Long Island this evening following a cold frontal passage, with
winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore
bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island
Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island
side of the central/ern Sound.

Any gales will be replaced by SCAs late tonight
and quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely return to all waters
Sunday night into Monday as NW flow increases behind a cold frontal
passage. Gusts near or above 25 kt look to persist into Monday
evening before subsiding, then sub SCA conditions expected on all
waters once again into midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through much of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport
and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as
low pressure passes well south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR,
and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be
close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-
     345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...JP/DS
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...