595
FXUS61 KOKX 041947
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
247 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure builds in from the west tonight into
Friday. The high will pass east Friday night as weak low
pressure passes well to the south Friday night and heads well
out to sea on Saturday. A cold front moves through Sunday
night. Behind it, high pressure builds in from the west,
remaining in control through Tuesday. Low pressure may impact
the area mid next week as it passes to the north.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:

* Low wind chills and record low temps possible at some spots
  tonight.

Temperatures plummet tonight thanks to arctic high pressure
building in behind the cold front, reaching the single digits
in some spots well inland, teens most elsewhere, and the lower
20s in/just outside NYC and out by Montauk. Some record low
temps may be approached or set.

NW flow 20-25 mph gusting to 25-35 mph this evening after cold
front passage. Winds then quickly diminish late tonight as high
pressure starts to build in. By midnight or thereafter, winds
should be northerly around 10 mph or less. Tonight`s winds in
combination with falling temps will lead to wind chills in the
single digits and teens as early as this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold conditions continue, especially daytime Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with
  some light snow/rain Friday night into Saturday.

Temps on Fri as the high builds across will only reach the
mid/upper 20s inland, lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid 30s
across eastern Long Island.

Still maintaining a 30-40 PoP as the precip shield with a
southern stream low passing off Hatteras and moving nearly due
E out to sea skirts the area. Precip type should be mostly light
snow with little to no accumulation Fri night, then light rain
or a rain/snow mix on Sat as temps warm and mid levels dry out.
The best chance for precipitation looks to be after midnight
Friday night as an inverted trough extending from the low moves
into the region.

Low temps Fri night will be in the teens to 20S, with lower 30s
expected in NYC. Lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will
be a couple of degrees warmer. Highs on Sat will be in the upper
30s/lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early
  next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in the
  upper 20 and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in the
  single digits and teens.

* A period of precipitation is possible Sunday night into Monday,
  and could bring light snow to portions of the area should it
  occur, mainly north of the I-95 corridor.

Troughing aloft across much of the Eastern US to start the period. A
cold front moves across the area Sunday night that ushers in a
modifying arctic air mass through early next week.

While the frontal passage, at this time, appears moisture starved,
still have to monitor this period as there are differences amongst
guidance handling two separate shortwaves traversing east. The 12Z
GFS/GEFS depicts more interaction with these waves, inducing surface
low development off the New England coast on Monday, and bringing a
period of light rain and snow to the region. Other guidance is much
more separated and drier as a result, and this wetter solution is
being considered an outlier with this update. Still a period to
watch though over the next couple of days as these differences
resolve.

Regardless thereafter, 1030 mb surface high builds east over the Mid
Atlantic into Tuesday, keeping conditions cold and dry locally.
Daytime highs both Monday and Tuesday look to remain mostly in the
30s, or even 20s inland, and a gusty NW flow behind the front will
add to the cold. Morning wind chills Tuesday could fall into the
single digits to near 0 inland, and teens along the coast, which
would not warrant any cold headlines.

A clipper system may move through the Northeast on Wednesday,
bringing the next chance for precipitation.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front moves through this afternoon. High pressure then builds
in from the west through tonight and settles over the area Friday
morning before weakening and moving away late in the day.

VFR prevails. Any light snow showers this afternoon should be
confined to KSWF, where a PROB30 is in place for -SHSN and stronger
winds with cold frontal passage.

West winds increase this afternoon, especially with the cold frontal
passage. The winds will gradually go more WNW, then NW after 21-22z
and through the end of the evening push. Peak winds will likely
occur around the 20-22z timeframe for most terminals, an hour
earlier for the more western terminals. Winds and gusts begin to
decrease some around 00Z this evening with the gusts ending late
tonight, mainly by 04-06z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Some flurries and light snow / rain showers can not be ruled out
this afternoon, but will likely not cause any vsby restrictions and
thus have been kept out of TAFs. Amendments are possible if trends
indicate an increase in rain / snow showers chances.

There may be some peak gusts a few kt higher than what is currently
in the TAF, potentially up to around 35 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday afternoon: Primarily VFR. Low chance of brief MVFR and light
snow during the late afternoon/night, especially for southern and
eastern terminals.

Saturday: Low chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E
of the NYC metros, otherwise VFR prevails.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
NW gales continue on the ocean and the eastern Sound/bays of
Long Island this evening following a cold frontal passage, with
winds gusting to 30 kt on the Harbor/wrn Sound/south shore
bays. Seas should peak at 5-8 ft on the ocean E of Fire Island
Inlet, 4-7 on the ocean W of there, and 5 ft on the Long Island
side of the central/ern Sound.

Blowout tides may be possible on the western Sound with the low
tide early this evening, with water levels approaching 2 ft
below MLLW.

Any gales will be replaced by SCAs late tonight
and quickly ramp down, with quiet cond through Saturday.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions likely return to all waters
Sunday night into Monday as NW flow increases behind a cold frontal
passage. Gusts near or above 25 kt look to persist into Monday
evening before subsiding, then sub SCA conditions expected on all
waters once again into midweek.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport
and Stamford CT tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as
low pressure passes well south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temps Fri morning may reach daily record lows at KJFK/KBDR,
and may also get close at KLGA. High temps Fri may also be
close to daily record low maxes at KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ331-332-340-350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ335-338-
     345.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/DR
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JP/DR
HYDROLOGY...JP/DR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...