573
FXUS61 KOKX 132035
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
335 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs pass across the region
today. High pressure builds over the area Friday into Saturday
before moving offshore Saturday night. A frontal system approaches
Saturday night and moves through the region Sunday. High pressure builds
in from the west Monday into Tuesday and may settle nearby on
Wednesday. A warm front may approach from the south Wednesday night
into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The area remains in predominantly NW flow through the column as an
upper trough is positioned to the northeast. Several shortwaves will
continue to dive southeast from the Great Lakes region and move
overhead or just north of the area through Friday.

The passage of a surface trough this afternoon is allowing the wind
to shift out of the NW with occasional gusts upwards of 25-30 mph.
There is a chance for a brief passing shower which may contain mixed
precipitation through the early evening. Any shower may enhance
the winds locally with gusts upwards of 40-50 mph possible,
though these should be very isolated in nature.

The NW flow will advect cooler air into the area tonight with lows
expected to drop into the 30s for much of the area with near 40 for
the NYC metro. Outside an isolated shower that might move in from
the northwest tonight, conditions should remain dry.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The trough continues to shift slowly eastward during the day on
Friday with surface ridge building in from the southwest. By
afternoon, a final piece of shortwave energy moves overhead which
may result in enhanced cloud cover and a subtle shift in the wind to
a more NNW direction. The associated surface trough moves through
allowing for potentially gusty flow to persist into the afternoon and
evening. Gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible though a
stronger gust to 30-35 mph isn`t ruled out closer to the coast.
Highs tomorrow will remain slightly below average with afternoon
temperatures in the upper 40s.

By Friday night, the trough shifts further east with a surface high
pressure system moving into the area. This will allow both clearing
skies for Friday night and a relaxing in the winds. Assuming the sky
remains mostly clear and winds relax enough to decouple the BL
overnight, radiational cooling may allow lows Friday night to drop
into the middle to upper 20s inland and low to middle 30s for the
coast.

High pressure slides over the area on Saturday, very quickly pushing
east of the area by the mid to late afternoon. A shift in the wind
to the SW will bring in a more moderate airmass allowing highs to
climb into the middle 50s along the coast. The interior areas may
remain in the middle to upper 40s however. A surface frontal system
being forced by an approaching shortwave trough from the
northwest will begin to impact the area Saturday night.
Widespread rainfall is expected to develop and overtake much of
the area by early Saturday night. This rainfall will continue to
move through the area overnight and into early Sunday, ahead of
a cold frontal passage expected Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key points:

* A frontal system moves through Sunday morning, with lingering
  showers before dry conditions return Sunday afternoon.

* Breezy conditions are expected behind the departing front Sunday
  afternoon into Monday, but winds probably remain below advisory
  thresholds.

* Temperatures will be seasonably cool during the period except
  for Sunday where temperatures may briefly rebound into the upper
  50s to around 60 at the coast and NE NJ.

A closed low treks across northern New England, while at the
surface, a cold front moves through the forecast area Sunday
morning. The cold front passes east of the area by late morning into
the afternoon, but only lingering showers are expected, with highest
chances for precipitation across eastern areas. The cold front
passage will bring in another period of breezy conditions, peaking
Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon, with perhaps a bit of a lull
Sunday night, especially late (gusts are still expected, but may
become more occasional), as low pressure deepens to our north across
SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our west.

Winds should start diminishing Monday night as the high pressure
moves closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft
through mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure
continues to be modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into
Tuesday night. NBM indicates just a slight chance late
Tuesday/Tuesday evening for extreme southern portions of the
forecast area as the northern edge of the precipitation field grazes
those areas. Though most areas, even those that have a slight chance
for rain, will be mainly dry.

High pressure builds in at the surface from the west on Wednesday as
upper level ridging from the Great Lakes region approaches. Model
solutions differ with amplitude and actual location due to
differences in the location of the low over the Canadian Maritimes.
A warm front may then approach the area from Wednesday night into
Thursday, bringing the next chance for precipitation. It may be cold
enough late Wednesday night for some snow showers for areas well
inland. NBM was closely followed due to uncertainty from Wednesday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs pass across the region
into Friday as high pressure slowly builds towards the region.

A brief shower is possible through this evening, but
ceilings/visibilities are expected to remain VFR.

W/NW flow 15-20kt with G25-30kt will gradually decrease tonight.
Gusts may become more occasional than frequent at times
overnight. NW winds increase again during the day on Friday to
10-15kt with G20-25kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts starting and ending may be off an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds G20-25kt.

Saturday: VFR, sub VFR developing at night in RA.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain to start, improving to VFR in the
afternoon. W winds 10-15 G20-25kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20G25-30kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will continue through early this evening. Winds
should start subsiding below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters
tonight, but are likely to remain 25-30 kt on the ocean through
Friday. Ocean seas gradually subside through Friday with sub-SCA
conditions expected on all waters by Friday night.

A period of sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday. SCA conditions
then return late Saturday into Sunday with the next frontal
system. Gales are possible on the waters Sunday afternoon behind
the passage of a cold front, with this threat continuing into
Monday with a tight pressure gradient. Will continue the mention
for gales in the HWO.

Waves build to 5 to 12 ft on the ocean by Sunday night and 4 to 7
ft on the sound, before starting to subside late Sunday night. Waves
over the entire sound may not drop below 5 ft until late in the day
Monday into Monday night, while the ocean waters remain above 5 ft
through late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ335-
     338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JP/MW
HYDROLOGY...JP/MW