253
FXUS61 KOKX 070816
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
416 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move east of the area today. A cold front
will approach tonight and move through on Wednesday. Strong high
pressure will then move toward the area from the Great Lakes
from Thursday through early Friday, then weaken over the weekend
and potentially give way to low pressure approaching from the
south early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will move offshore today as the upper ridge axis
also moves well to the west. Low stratus over S CT and patchy
fog there as well as in some other outlying spots should scatter
this morning, with a mostly sunny late morning and early
afternoon before clouds with the front move in from NYC
north/west late this afternoon. One more day of warmth expected
before tonight`s cold fropa, and used NBM 90th percentile for
temps which has worked out very well the past couple of days in
this air mass. This should yield high temps in the lower 80s
from NYC north/west and also in the CT river valley, with upper
70s most elsewhere. A few mid 80s possible in urban NE NJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers move in with the cold front tonight into Wed morning,
with chance PoP in NYC after midnight, then likely/categorical
PoP for most areas by daybreak Wed and continuing into the
morning. A few showers may be on the heavier side, enhanced via
SW LLJ of 35-40 kt and deep moisture with PW near 1.75 inches. Fairly
strong frontal forcing in the presence of moist adiabatic lapse
rates just ahead of the front may lead to some isolated rumbles
of thunder. Precip should be mostly E of NYC by afternoon, and E
of the CWA by evening. Low temps tonight will be mostly form the
upper 50s to mid 60s, with highs either side of 70 as
clouds/precip/CAA put an end to our recent warm spell.

Post-frontal CAA kicks in during Wed night and Thu, with N
winds gusting over 20 mph at times. Low temps by Thu AM should
be in the 40s in most places, with mid/upper 30s possible in
some of the interior valleys. Temps on Thu unlikely to get out
of the 50s inland, and reach only the lower 60s along the coast
and in the NYC metro area.

As the high builds in Thu night, blyr winds should decouple
under mostly clear skies. Frost is likely inland as temps there
fall to the mid/upper 30s, and to near/just below freezing in
parts of Orange County. Lows will be in the 40s along the coast
and in the NYC metro area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed with no significant changes. Key Points:

* High pressure keeps the area dry through Saturday afternoon. High
  temperatures will be in the 60s for Friday and Saturday.

* Coastal low pressure may bring chances of rainfall Saturday night
  through Monday. Low confidence forecast due to spread among
  various global models, but there is some indication of a trend
  toward lower chances of rainfall during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to move offshore today. A cold front
approaches tonight and passes through late at night into
Wednesday morning.

Mainly VFR through this evening. Showers and MVFR/IFR mainly
after midnight, lingering into Wednesday morning.

SW-S winds increase after the morning push, becoming 10-15 kt
with gusts around 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts end late day
into early evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of gusts on Tuesday may be off by 1-3 hours and may be
only occasional.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight-Wednesday: MVFR, possibly IFR at times, with
showers, ending early Wednesday afternoon. VFR returns
Wednesday afternoon and evening. NW gusts 20-25 kt Wednesday
afternoon into night.

Thursday: VFR. N gusts 20-25 kt in the morning.

Friday-Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
With retreating high pressure and the approach of a cold front
during Tuesday, S flow should increase to near 20 kt with gusts
to 25 kt, and seas build to 5 ft, both on the ocean waters.
SCA will be issued for these conditions.

N flow after cold fropa on Wed should increase Wed night, with
gusts up to 30 kt on the ocean and 25 kt on the non ocean
waters. Ocean seas E of Fire Island Inlet likely to build 5 ft
ft during this time as well. Marginal SCA cond on the ern ocean
waters may hold on into early Thu afternoon.

Thereafter, SCA cond become more likely Saturday night as winds
and seas increase in advance of a coastal low to the south.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Sided with somewhat lower WPC vs NBM QPF for tonight into Thu
morning, with basin avg rainfall over all of the CWA at least
1/2 to 3/4 inch, with some higher totals closer to an inch
possible across the lower Hudson Valley and S CT. A few heavier
downpours are possible, but attm no hydrologic issues expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels should get close to minor flood benchmarks with
the AM high tide cycles today and again on Wed along the back
bays of Nassau, Newark Bay, and along the Fairfield CT
coastline. Any instances of minor flooding appear too isolated
to warrant a statement attm.

Surge guidance predicts minor flooding as well for the Thu AM
high tide cycle, but think this is overdone given northerly
flow, and that water levels will remain just below thresholds.
There may be a better shot at minor flooding with the Fri AM
high tide cycle as winds diminish and become E.

There is a high degree of uncertainty as to how much low
pressure to the south early next week will impact the local
area. Given potential for fairly strong NE flow between the low
and high pressure to our north, there could be multiple rounds
of more widespread flooding Sunday and Monday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
     Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BG