484
FXUS61 KOKX 150538
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1238 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region this evening and remains
tonight. The high pushes offshore Saturday. A warm front slowly
approaches Saturday and pushes through Saturday night, followed
quickly by a cold front Sunday morning. The departing low moves
into eastern Canada Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
builds in from the west Monday into Tuesday and settles nearby
into Thursday. A frontal system may then impact the region
Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Surface trough moving through is the focus for some light
showers across southern CT and eastern Long Island. Have added
slight chance to low end chance POPs to account for this.
Additionally, scaled back any mention of frost over these areas,
at least over the next few hours as clouds associated with the
trough will keep temperatures elevated.

An upper ridge builds toward the area tonight with a surface
high also building over the area between two low pressure
systems. Skies become mostly clear to clear with diminishing
winds, which may become near calm by late tonight. Temperatures
fall below freezing inland, and into the mid and upper 30s along
the coast and across metropolitan NYC. With winds becoming near
calm lows may be a degree or two lower. Widespread frost is
likely inland, with areas along the coast. The growing season
remains across southern Nassau county, however, did not issue a
frost advisory as conditions will be marginal, with areal
extent, temperatures, and short duration of areas of frost.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
An upper ridge builds over the area Saturday and weakens late
in the day as the surface high moves offshore. A rather strong
warm front will approach from the southwest Saturday night, and
strong low level warm advection sets up early in the evening.
Low temperatures will most likely occur during the evening with
a non diurnal temperature rising through the overnight as the
warm front approaches and then quickly lifts north toward Sunday
morning, 09Z to 12Z. With strong isentropic lift along the warm
front showers will become likely late day and more into
Saturday evening and night. The region will only be warm
sectored briefly as a cold front quickly follows as the
associated low tracks north of the region. Again, temperatures
will be semi non diurnal Sunday as highs will occur early in the
day and hold steady into the early afternoon before falling as
the colder air moves into the region. Did not mention any
thunder with the cold front as any CAPE will be limited and
brief, and shallowly elevated. Carried minimum probabilities or
precipitation into Sunday morning across the eastern portion of
the region, however, with the quick movement of the low and cold
front precipitation may be over before Sunday morning. West /
Northwest winds in the wake of the cold front develop Sunday and
continue into Sunday night, and will likely remain below Wind
Advisory levels. There may be a few gusts approaching 40kt late
morning into the early afternoon as the strongest cold advection
moves through with the strongest pressure rises.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key points:

* Breezy conditions are expected to begin the period on Monday,
  followed by gradually diminishing winds Monday night into Tuesday.

* High temperatures below normal through Wednesday, moderating to
  near normal for Thursday and Friday.

* Likely dry through at least Thursday afternoon with rain chances
  for Thursday night and Friday. Too early to have any confidence
  regarding impacts.

Relatively high confidence forecast through Thursday. Uncertainty
increases Thursday night into Friday surrounding the track and
timing of low pressure that would appear to pass to our north at
some point late this week. Did not stray from NBM during this
period. NBM is reasonably close to AI GEFS and AI EPS regarding
track and timing as implied by NBM wind fields. With that said, it
appears that the global deterministic models may have just started
converging on a solution with a slower timing of the system and its
potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface trough moves offshore overnight as high pressure gradually
builds and centers over the area toward daybreak. This high then
exits as our next low moves to the north with a frontal
system approaching later today into Saturday night.

VFR through this afternoon, then MVFR or lower Saturday evening as
rain moves in associated with the approaching low. There is some
uncertainty in timing and in the flight category forecasts.

Any light SW to W flow should shift to the WNW to NW winds at less
than 10 kt overnight as the surface trough slides off shore. There
may be some gusts behind the trough to around 20 kt out of the WNW
to NW, but did not include in TAFs as they look to be occasional.
Some outlying terminals may become light and variable, especially
towards daybreak. Winds shift to the SW to SSW late Saturday morning
into early afternoon as speeds remain at or under 10 kt until late
afternoon as they begin to increase with the approach of the low.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through today. Amendments likely
Saturday evening with uncertainty in flight category forecasts.


.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Saturday night: MVFR or lower in rain. SW winds 10-15 kt with gusts
up to 20 kt. Wind shear of 45 to 60 kt at 2 kft out of the SW is
also looking more likely.

Sunday: VFR. W winds 15-20 kt G30-35 kt late morning/afternoon.

Monday: VFR. W-WNW winds 15-20 kt G25-30 kt.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts across the ocean waters have diminished and were
below 25 kt as high pressure continues to build to the
southwest. The Small Craft Advisory for the remainder of today
has been cancelled. And with high pressure remaining tonight and
moving offshore Saturday conditions remain below advisory across
all the forecast waters. Then Saturday night as the high moves
offshore and a frontal system approaches from the Great Lakes
region wind gusts will reach SCA levels on all the waters
during Saturday night, and a SCA has been issued. Wind gusts
continue to increase into Sunday morning as winds become
westerly behind a cold front that quickly sweeps across the
forecast waters. Gusts will be at gale force across all the
waters Sunday through Sunday night and a Gale Watch has been
issued.

Gales will still be possible on all waters through Monday
before eventually diminishing below advisory thresholds Monday
night into Tuesday morning. Sub-advisory conditions then prevail
through the rest of the forecast period with a high pressure
ridge over the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through the entire forecast
period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Sunday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340.
     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday
     for ANZ345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MET
NEAR TERM...JP/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JE/JP
MARINE...JC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JC/MET