798
FXUS61 KOKX 061232
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
732 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak surface trough extending north from low pressure moving off
the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact the area into this
morning. Weak high pressure will then move into the area tonight
into Sunday. A strong cold front moves through Sunday night. High
pressure builds from the west Monday, remaining in control through
Tuesday. A couple of low pressure systems may impact the area the
mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key points:

* Light wintry mix across the area this morning, with potential
  for patchy freezing rain/drizzle.

An inverted trough is currently stretching into our area from
low pressure passing well offshore. There has been enough
convergence for some scattered precipitation to develop. This
activity has been mainly confined to Long Island. However, there
are additional bands of showers moving in from the southwest.
Continues to be a tricky pytpe forecast. Moisture is very
shallow and combined with temperatures in this layer only a few
degrees below freezing ice nucleation could be difficult. This
brings freezing rain/drizzle into the question. While none has
been observed in our area through the night so far, KWST just
east of New London County has recently observed freezing rain.
This lines up with latest HRRR model soundings where the low
levels are the warmest with the actual surface still below
freezing. Elsewhere, for northeast NJ, parts of NYC, up into the
Lower Hudson Valley and into much of CT, the ptype has been
mainly snow. Given the cold temperatures we saw yesterday into
the night, snow was easily sticking to roads and an SPS was
issued and is still in effect for potential slick conditions.
For the rest of NYC and Long Island, temperatures ran a bit
warmer than forecast and all plain rain has been observed. All
that being said, confidence is not high enough to completely
pull the mention of patchy freezing rain/drizzle from the
SPS/forecast. However, the most likely areas to experience it
look like eastern CT.

This activity shifts east this morning and will be east of the
area this afternoon. As temperatures rise this morning any
freezing rain/drizzle threat will come to an end. Weak high
pressure starts to build in later in the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key points:

* A cold front moves through Sunday night with another very cold
  airmass building in behind it. Highs Monday look to top out in
  the mid 20s to low 30s, with lows Monday night expected to be
  down in the single digits and teens.

Weak high pressure remains in control through Sunday and then a
cold front moves through Sunday night. Guidance came in drier
and now keeps PoPs out of the area for the frontal passage. As
high pressure builds in behind the front the pressure gradient
briefly tightens into Monday morning and results in 25 to 30
mph gusts. These winds combined with temperatures well below
normal will result in wind chill values during the day in the
teens.

The high moves overhead Monday night. Have stuck with the NBM
for now with lows, but if forecast sky cover trends lower there
is a chance we can see even lower temperatures. Current forecast
is upper single digits to lower teens across the interior and
mostly mid to upper teens elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure pushes off the Northeast Coast Tuesday, allowing
a warm front to approach from the southwest and low pressure to
move across the Great Lakes and pass north of the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Therefore, dry conditions are in
store from Monday through Tuesday, with just a slight chance of
precipitation for portions of the forecast area Tuesday night.
The warm front may lift north during the day Wednesday as
another fast moving low pressure system approaches from the
west, farther south than the previous one. This too is expected
to pass north, rounding the base of the upper trough that is in
place Wednesday night. This may give the region a better chance
for precipitation Wednesday into Thursday, but it looks to be
light. The associated cold front looks to push through Wednesday
night, allowing high pressure to build in for Thursday. Another
quick moving system approaches from the west late in the week,
but there is a great deal of uncertainty among the models as to
the track and strength of the low.

Warmer, but still well below normal temperatures expected for
Wednesday, with highs in the upper 20s to around 40 across the area
(warmer for coastal areas). Near normal temperatures on Wednesday
with the warm frontal passage, but then slightly cooler for Thursday
with the cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak surface trough shifts across the terminals this morning,
followed by weak high pressure building to the southwest this
afternoon through tonight.

Brief MVFR ceilings this morning in a patchy wintry mix, except
only a chance of light rain at KISP. Much of the precipitation
will clear the area in the next 1-2 hours, but chances will
linger a bit longer for KGON. Thereafter, it will be a VFR
forecast.

Light and variable winds this morning become WSW at less than
10 kt, then veer to the W/NW tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Winds may be light and variable to start before becoming WSW
later this morning.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt developing late at night.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: Chance of rain with a chance of rain/snow interior
Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend with a weak pressure
gradient over the waters.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning
Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds late morning/midday
high tide cycle in spots along the south shore back bays of
Nassau and Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the SW CT coastline,
and at Shinnecock and Montauk out east. A coastal flood statement
may eventually be issued to address this.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JP/JT
HYDROLOGY...JP/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...