192
FXUS61 KOKX 022347
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
647 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low pressure system passes southeast of the region
through tonight, and into the Canadian Maritimes by Wednesday.
High pressure then returns for Wednesday and Thursday, with a
cold frontal passage Thursday afternoon. Low pressure will then
pass to the south and east Friday night into Saturday, with weak
high pressure returning Saturday night into Sunday, followed by
another cold front Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Back edge of precip continues to push east through the rest of
the forecast area this evening, and should be east of Montauk by
around 8 PM. Precip type is mainly rain, however pockets of
freezing rain still possible over portions of northern New Haven
and Middlesex counties possible with an elevated warm nose
already shifted in. A special weather statement has been issued
to address this. A chance of a couple more snow showers/flurries
otherwise for an hour or two behind the main line of precip.
Temperatures fall below freezing across the area tonight except
maybe some sections of the city, so some refreezing of standing
water will be possible, mainly across the interior where temps
are already close to or below freezing. Winds will increase
tonight too as the pressure gradient tightens over the area. NW
winds 15-25 gusting up to 35 mph anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Dry conditions for the period.

* High temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s, which is
  about 10 degrees below normal.

For Wednesday, high pressure over the OH Valley moves slowly east,
with the local area caught between it and the departing coastal
system. The pressure gradient looks to relax by midday Wed, so any
lingering gusts should subside. Thursday looks similar as the high
remains to our southwest and a cold front approaches from the
northwest. It looks to pass through the area Thursday afternoon dry
and with little fanfare, other than some increased cloudiness.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Below normal temperatures expected, running as much as 10-15
  degrees below normal Friday and again Sunday night/Monday.

* Low pressure passing to the south may give a glancing blow late
  Friday night into Saturday.

Very cold on Friday as a 1030 mb high (supported via strong mid
level confluence behind the departing upper trough over eastern
Canada) slides across, with highs from the upper 20s well
inland to mid 30s metro/coastal sections. The high will retreat
Fri night, with a srn stream low passing to the south in
progressive quasi- zonal flow aloft. Polar jet may be modeled
too strongly and ridging off the SE coast too weakly, so despite
suppressed 00Z GFS solution think the sys will at least give a
glancing blow late Fri night into early Sat afternoon, with 30
PoP for all but the lower Hudson Valley. Thermal profiles
supportive of light snow late Fri night/early Sat morning, then
a transition to a light rain/snow mix for interior SE CT and all
rain across ern Long Island and coastal SE CT for late
morning/early afternoon.

Cold frontal passage Sunday night as a closed low swings across
ern Canada will usher in yet another very cold air mass for
early next week, with lows in the teens/20s and highs in the
upper 20s/lower 30s for Monday. This shot of cold air looks to
be longer lasting than the one for Thu night/Fri of this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure southeast of Long Island tracks northeast through
this evening. High pressure will then build to the southwest of
the area late tonight through Wednesday. The high weakens
Wednesday night.

VFR conditions are generally expected at the beginning of the
forecast period, with MVFR to locally IFR east of the NYC
terminals as rain comes to an end by 02Z at KGON, and MVFR
conditions may linger longer, until 07Z.

N winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue into late tonight,
and possibly end earlier than forecast. Also, gusts may be more
occasional. Winds diminish late tonight and back to NW, and
then to W late Wednesday afternoon. Timing of the winds backing
will depend on how quickly high pressure builds to the southwest
of the region.


...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

MVFR is possible for a brief time right around 00Z Wednesday,
otherwise VFR is expected through the forecast.

Onset time of gusts may be off by 1-2 hours this evening, and
ending time may be an hour earlier. Gusts may also be more
occasional.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. W winds G20-25kt in the afternoon/evening.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at
night.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light snow/rain in the morning,
mainly E of the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA remains in effect on all waters through Wed AM in
association with the coastal low pressure system. Gusts to 30 kt
are likely, occasionally to 35 kt, with seas 5-6 ft on the ocean
and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

Winds and seas diminish through Wednesday with seas falling
below advisory thresholds by the end of the day. Winds and
seas then begin to increase late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning ahead of a cold front that passes through in the
afternoon and brings marginal gales on the ocean waters. SCA
conds otherwise likely on all waters late Wed night into
Thursday morning and lasting into Thursday night.

Any lingering 5-ft seas on the outer coastal ocean waters out
east early Fri morning should subside quickly as strong high
pressure builds from the west. No hazards anticipated thereafter
through Sunday afternoon due to a weak pressure gradient and
lack of appreciable swell, with seas no higher than 2-3 ft.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts expected through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/JE
NEAR TERM...JC/JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/JE
HYDROLOGY...JC/JE