001
FXUS61 KOKX 191159
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
659 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure to our south this morning gives way to high pressure
building in from the west for the rest of the day. The high remains
in control through Thursday before exiting offshore ahead of a
frontal system that impacts the area Friday into Saturday. High
pressure then briefly returns the second half of the weekend and
remain into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Weak low pressure to our south will be shifting away to the east
this morning. Moisture and lift will however stick around the
forecast area into mid-morning as a shortwave passes through,
combined with a little upper divergence in the area due to
positioning of an upper jet streak couplet. Likely to categorical
PoPs therefore for approximately the southern half of the area with
the precipitation ending by late in the morning. Liquid
equivalent amounts now expected to be primarily below a tenth of
an inch.

Regarding precip types, further wet bulbing may occur across
the interior, but precip will be light, so the magnitude would
be relatively little. Based on most recent surface wet bulb zero
temps, any wintry precip would be limited to well north and
west of the city. Snow accumulations will be light with up to a
tenth of an inch or two mainly well north and west of the city
at higher elevations and on typically colder surfaces.
Diminishing cloud cover then follows this afternoon with dry
conditions through tonight.

Didn`t stray too far from NBM for temps/dewpoints outside of
some adjustments this morning as per latest obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region for Thursday, then weaken as
it heads offshore Thursday night into Friday. Low pressure well to
the north near Hudson Bay Canada will drag a cold front across the
area probably sometime Friday night, however guidance varies
regarding how quickly and far south the front moves before a wave of
low pressure moving east along the front potentially impacts the
weather here. Stuck with NBM PoPs, which are still below 50% during
Friday afternoon and night. Dry otherwise beforehand. High
temperatures a few degrees below normal for Thursday, but milder on
Friday with highs mostly in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* A frontal system exits the region Saturday or Saturday night, as
  low pressure passes north of the region. Expect at least a chance
  of rain through Saturday or Saturday night depending on how
  quickly the system exits the region.

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first
  part of next week with dry conditions.

* Another low pressure system may impact the region during the
  middle of next week. However, models seem to disagree with the
  timing and placement of this next system.

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for this
  time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south of the terminals
this morning. High pressure builds back into the area this
afternoon and remains into Thursday.

It is a mix of VFR and MVFR with light rain, and a low chance
of rain/snow mix at KHPN and KBDR. The precipitation ends
north/west to south/east around 12Z to 16Z. Becoming VFR soon
after the precipitation ends.

Winds generally light and variable this morning, becoming N
less than 10 kt as the low moves away and precipitation ends
late this morning into the afternoon. Winds may briefly back to
NW late in the afternoon. Winds remain from the north tonight,
with speeds falling to around 5kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is a very low chance of ceilings lowering to IFR for a brief
period this morning, mainly at KEWR, KJFK, and KLGA. With low
confidence and low chances did not include IFR in the forecast.

Improvement to VFR may be an hour later than forecast.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain.
SW winds G15-20kt Friday. N/NW winds G15-20 kt Saturday.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions are generally expected to remain below SCA levels through
much of the weekend and into the first part of next week, but gusts
on the ocean could get close to 25kt during Friday afternoon and night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrological concerns through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...BC/JC