358
FXUS61 KOKX 120832
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak fronts/surface troughs will move across the area
through Thursday as the region remains between low pressure to the
north and high pressure to the south. High pressure builds over the
area Friday into Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. A
frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves through the
region Sunday. High pressure builds to the west Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Large upper trough will remain over the eastern US through tonight.
Multiple pieces of energy will pass across the area during this
timeframe. At the surface, the region will lie between low pressure
to the north and high pressure across the central states down into
the southeast. This pattern will feature a series of surface
troughs/weak fronts passing across the area. One of these troughs
will pass through early this morning bringing with it a slight
chance for a snow shower of snow flurries across the interior of NE
NJ and Lower Hudson Valley. Another trough likely passes late this
afternoon into this evening, but unlikely to produce any precip
across the region. A few breaks in the cloud cover are possible at
times, but overall a mostly cloudy sky condition is forecast through
this evening.

The unseasonably cold air that settled over the area on Tuesday has
begun to moderate. A breezy W-WSW flow today will still lead to
brisk conditions with potential of gusts 25-30 mph, strongest near
the coast. Actual air temperatures should moderate into the upper
40s inland and lower 50s close to the coast. These values are still
a few degrees below normal for mid November. The pressure gradient
remains Wednesday night, but should see clouds diminish in coverage
to yield a partly cloudy sky overnight. Lows will fall into the mid
to upper 30s inland and lower 40s near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A quick moving trough/front will pass across the area early
Thursday. The only change to sensible weather will be from a wind
shift to the NW. Gusts should still range between 25 and 30 mph
although a few places could reach 35 mph at times in the afternoon,
especially near the coast. Skies will likely be partly cloudy
although they could briefly go mostly cloudy at times as there are
still pieces of energy moving through aloft around the upper trough.
Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday ranging from the upper
40s to lower 50s.

The large upper trough that has been over the northeast in recent
days will begin to slide off the New England coast through Thursday
night into Friday. The system will then meander just off the
northeast coast and the Canadian Maritimes through Friday night as
ridging builds towards the area. This will allow the surface high to
move closer to the region. It will remain breezy on Friday, but
gusts should be much weaker compared to earlier in the week. Highs
will should again range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The
coldest night to end the week looks to be Friday night as winds
drop off along with mostly clear skies. Lows based on the NBM
range from the upper 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key points:

* Dry conditions on Saturday as high pressure builds over the region.

* A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves across the
  region Sunday into Sunday night. The system brings the next period
  of rain, mainly Saturday night into Sunday.

* Temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal normals during
  the period except for Sunday where temperatures may briefly
  rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s at the coast.

* Breezy SW winds Sunday turn brisk out of the W-NW by next Monday.

Ridging that attempts to build over the northeast on Saturday will
quickly be replaced by another upper trough/closed low diving SE out
of Canada by Sunday. This system will send the next frontal system
across the area Saturday night through Sunday. The latest model
consensus has the front pushing offshore Sunday night. The
associated warm front lifts north of the area Saturday night. A SW
return flow will allow temperatures to rise significantly Saturday
night into Sunday, effectively keeping the PTYPE as rain. There is a
large amount of spread with the timing of the actual cold front and
how far north warmer air will be able to push into the area with the
warm front. Have continued to follow the  NBM deterministic guidance
for this timeframe which does indicate potential for a brief warm up
into the 50s with some low 60s near the coast. The cold front
quickly follows Sunday night. Another larger upper trough then
settles over the northeast on Monday and may remain in place into
Tuesday. The region may be situated between deep low pressure to the
north and building high pressure to the west for another period of
brisk/gusty conditions to start next week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains centered well to the south as a frontal system
approaches from the west.

VFR through the TAF period.

W flow backs WSW into the early morning with speeds sustained 10-15
kt and gusts 20-25 kt for coastal terminals. Gusts subside or become
more occasional for outlying sites, before returning to all
terminals after 12Z, with sustained W or WSW winds generally 10-15
kt, gusting 20-25 kt through the day.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Isolated gusts to 30 kt possible today.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. W winds G20kt.

Thursday-Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in rain.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90


&&

.MARINE...
Winds have subsided below gale force on the waters early this
morning. SCA conditions will continue through at least Thursday.
Have issued an SCA for all waters through 6pm Thursday. There
may be a brief weakening of winds on the non-ocean waters this
morning and then again tonight, but decided to just extend the
SCA through Thursday as winds will be close and will quickly
increase this afternoon and then again on Thursday. SCA
conditions may continue into Friday, especially on the ocean.
Ocean seas gradually subside through Friday, but will remain
above 5 ft through much of Thursday night.

A period of sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday. SCA
conditions then return on Sunday with the next frontal system.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-
     335-338-340-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...DR/JT
MARINE...DS
HYDROLOGY...DS