344
FXUS61 KOKX 152351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
651 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the southwest while a weak upper
level disturbance pushes across tonight. The high will then
slowly work off the eastern seaboard on Tuesday. A warm front
pushes north of the area early Wednesday, followed by a cold
frontal passage Wednesday night. High pressure briefly follows on
Thursday before a much stronger frontal system impacts the area
Friday. Temperatures will then drop back closer to seasonal
levels for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Key Point(s):

* Unseasonably cold tonight with a passing flurry possible.

Shortwave energy dropping down the backside of a departing upper
trough will result in mostly cloudy skies and perhaps a flurry
through this evening. Otherwise, high pressure noses in from the
southwest with clearing skies for the second half of the night.
NBM temps were used (close to MAV/MET MOS). There is some
uncertainty tonight with the cloud cover and still a bit of a
west wind. It`s quite possible that some of the normally colder
locations could get lower than currently forecast. Right now,
expect lows generally in the teens, except lower 20s in the NYC
metro. This is about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Point(s):

* Tuesday will be the last day of much below normal
  temperatures, followed by a midweek warmup.

* Dry cold frontal passage Wednesday night.

A progressive, nearly zonal flow across the Lower 48 will
continue to send Pac systems quickly east. High pressure over
the area on Tuesday gradually works offshore, while low pressure
passes north of the Great Lakes. Strong warm advection out ahead
of the system and a warm front passing well north of the area
Tuesday night will mark the last day of cold air across the
region. Highs are forecast to be a bit warmer than they were on
Monday, generally in the lower to mid 30s. With winds turning
around to the southwest late in the day, lows will not be near
as cold. In fact, temperatures will initially drop into the 20s
in the evening before leveling off, then gradually rising the
second half of the night as southwest winds increase.

Cold front approaches from the west on Wednesday with continued
warm advection. Highs are forecast to get into the lower and
mid 40s, which is close to normal (shade below). Gusts ahead of
the front in the afternoon will top off around 20 mph. Model
soundings show it becoming inverted, limiting the gust
potential. Cold front passes through dry Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Points:

*  Mild into Friday.

*  Wet on Friday with a frontal system.

*  Cooler over the weekend into the beginning of next week.

Zonal flow aloft keep temps mild Thu. An upper trof then brings swly
flow aloft Thu ngt into Fri with developing rain. The cold front
associated with the system comes thru late Fri, with colder air for
Fri ngt and Sat. Could be some icy spots Fri ngt and Sat mrng with
refreezing moisture. Position of the polar front Sun and Mon close
to the area, but the bulk of the arctic air may remain N of the cwa.
Still too far out to have confidence, but general pattern is zonal
which would tend towards glancing shots of colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure builds in through early Tuesday and pushes
offshore Tuesday afternoon.

VFR. A few flurries will be possible from approx 01-04z, but
confidence is low.

Gusts have subsided, though an occasional gust to 20 kt is still
possible through 00-02Z

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled AMD are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night and Wednesday: VFR. SW winds around 10 to 15 kt
with gusts 15 to 20 kt Wednesday and chance of LLWS.

Thursday: VFR. S winds G15-20kt late day.

Thursday night: Rain with IFR cond, especially after midnight. S
winds G20-25kt in the evening, increasing to 25-35kt after midnight.
LLWS after midnight.

Friday: Chance of rain and either MVFR/IFR cond in the morning, then
VFR. SW winds G25-35kt in the morning, shifting W in the afternoon
and increasing to 30-40kt. LLWS early.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions linger on the eastern ocean waters through early
this evening. High pressure then follows with sub-SCA conditions
through much of Tuesday night. A strengthening southerly flow
ahead of a cold front will then bring SCA conditions back to the
waters possibly before daybreak on the ocean waters. Winds and
seas diminish Wednesday night following the cold frontal passage.
High pressure briefly builds in for Thursday with sub-SCA conditions.

S winds increase late Thu into Fri ahead of a frontal sys.
Gales possible, especially on the ocean. Winds become NW behind
the cold front late Fri, with gales again possible. Residual SCA
seas possible on the ocean Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns at this time.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...JMC/DW
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW