570
FXUS61 KOKX 290834
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
334 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves over the area today. A frontal system moves
across the region Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
briefly builds on Monday before giving way to developing low
pressure over the southern states. A secondary coastal low forms
along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday, passing just south and
east of Long Island Tuesday night. High pressure largely
prevails for the second half of the week with the exception of a
cold frontal passage on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build over the area from the west
through the day. This will result in a decreasing NW flow,
though some morning gusts may persist. By afternoon, gusts will
come to an end, resulting in mainly light and variable flow by
tonight.

Given the continued NW flow and cold air advection, highs today
will only rise into the low to possibly middle 40s, about 5-10
degree below average. Light and variable flow tonight under
mostly clear skies should allow for temperatures to rapidly drop
with efficient radiational cooling expected in the first part
of the night. THis should result in a rapid drop of temperatures
into the middle to upper 20s for much of the area. Coastal areas
may drop into the low to middle 30s. Clouds will begin to move
into the area from the west overnight ahead of the next frontal
system, so any rapid drops in temperatures will cease and
temperature may actually increase a bit, especially into the
later half of the night and into Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A progressive shortwave approaches the area Sunday, eventually
sliding north and west of the area. This will result in a large
surface low pressure system impacting the area, the center of
which passes well North of the area through the Great Lakes
region and moving into Southeastern Canada.

Some precipitation may begin moving into the area from the west
Sunday morning and depending on the surface temperatures, inland
areas may begin as as a mixture of wet snow and rain if precip
is able to move in quickly. Much of the eastern half of the area
is expected to remain dry however for the first half of the day.
By afternoon, warm air advection allows for rapidly increasing
temperatures especially along the coast. Highs are expected to
be in the low to possible middle 50s along the coast with inland
areas remaining in the 40s.

The chance of rain becomes likely much of the area by Sunday
afternoon with generally light to locally moderate rainfall
expected. Winds may also become gusty near the coast, generally
25-30 mph at times in the afternoon. The rain quickly moves east
of the area Sunday evening with dry conditions returning
overnight, especially towards midnight. The brief warmup ahead
of the systems cold front ends Sunday night as a reinforcing
shot of colder air advects in the area by day break Monday.
Temperatures based on the latest model consensus should fall
into the lower to middle 30s by sunrise.

Another progressive high pressure system is expected for Monday
with a diminishing NW flow into Monday afternoon and generally
dry conditions with mostly clear skies. Highs will remain below
average, generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows Monday
night will be in the lower 20s inland and upper 20s to low 30s
along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with
  rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential
coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low
track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside
the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper,
and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members
to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy
associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come
onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes
that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In
addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure
quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing
for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is
why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal
low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track
favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line
working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing
winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater
than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40-
70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities
are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the
week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure to the west will gradually build from the west
today. VFR.

West winds continue to diminish a bit with gusts either ending
or becoming occasional through about 13z. Winds then increase
slightly with a chance of gusts during the morning and into the
early afternoon. Not confident either way with gusts being
frequent vs occasional today, so will cover the gust potential
in a TEMPO group from approximately 14-18z. Gusts are then
expected to end around 18-20z, with winds becoming light and
variable around 00z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments are expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Rain with MVFR cond in the afternoon/evening. S winds G20-
25kt, highest near the coast.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: MVFR expected in the morning, IFR possible in the
afternoon/evening. Precip type mainly snow at KSWF. Rain and/or snow
at the onset at the other terminals, changing to rain in the
morning.

Wednesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions continue into this morning with an occasional
gale force gust not ruled out through early morning. SCA
conditions drop off on the ocean by noon with sub-SCA conditions
expected through Saturday afternoon. S-SE winds increase on
Sunday into Sunday night with a frontal system impacting the
waters. SCa conditions once again are expected on Sunday
everywhere for wind gusts.

SCA conditions linger into Monday morning on the ocean waters as
high pressure builds in from the west. Confidence is increasing on
a coastal low bringing a return to SCA conditions Tuesday into
the first half of Wednesday. There is a low chance of a gale at
this time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ331-
     332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW/MW
HYDROLOGY...DW/MW