093
FXUS61 KOKX 191837
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
137 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles in through Thursday night before pushing
offshore Friday. A frontal wave impacts the area Friday night into
Saturday morning. High pressure returns Friday afternoon and remains
in place through early Tuesday. Another frontal system looks to
impact the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight high pressure works in from the WNW providing some clearing
across the area, especially further north and northeast. BUFKIT
soundings do however show more in the way of high level clouds
closer to and after midnight. This does result in a bit of a
difficult temperature forecast for tonight around how much
radiational cooling gets maximized. The coldest time of night may
actually be closer to midnight, as opposed to just before daybreak
for a large portion of the area. This is because forecast soundings
generally indicate that enough cloud cover could work in towards and
after 06z. Thus mostly clear skies give way to partly to mostly
cloudy skies later at night. The growing season has officially ended
across the region, with the exception being for metro portions of
Western LI, NYC metro including SE portions of NE NJ. Did carry some
patchy and areas of frost in mainly outlying sections for the late
evening and early in the overnight when radiational cooling gets
maximized. Minimum temperatures should range from mainly the upper
20s to the north and northwest, to 30s along the coast, with upper
30s in the NYC metro.

Thursday will feature a good deal of clouds early, otherwise the sun
will be filtered by mainly upper level clouds towards midday, with
less filtering of the sun later in the day. With surface high
pressure nearby look for light winds with temperatures averaging a
few degrees below the climatology, with mainly upper half of the 40s
for daytime maximum temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Skies will start off mainly clear Thursday night with surface high
pressure directly over the region. Later Thursday night some upper
level energy out ahead of a more southern stream based trough
attempts to draw closer. Some upper level moisture will streak out
ahead of the system, thus another round of mainly high level clouds
works in for the second half of Thursday night. The low and mid
levels will remain dry. Temperatures once again will likely fall
quickly during the evening, but then with the arrival of clouds
temperatures should hit a floor. If the clouds arrive on schedule
temperatures will not fall quite as low as the previous night.
Minimum temperatures should range mainly around 30 well to the
north, with 30s and lower 40s elsewhere.

On Friday high pressure gets offshore and a return flow out of the
SW gets going, especially into the afternoon. This should allow
temperatures to get back to climatological norms with mainly lower
50s for daytime max temperatures. Cloud cover is progged to thicken
and lower some in advance of the shortwave feature approaching from
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. With the shortwave beginning to
dampen out it is likely to remain dry, at least for during the day
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A frontal wave will pass through the area Friday night, exiting
Saturday morning. This frontal wave, passing in tandem with a subtle
shortwave aloft, brings passing rainfall to the area, mainly Friday
night with lingering showers possible into Saturday morning before
the front completely exits the area. More persistent rainfall is
anticipated closer to the frontal boundary, which will lead to
slightly better chances in southern portions of the CWA compared to
northern areas. Either way, rainfall will be marginal with no
concerns for flooding. Temperatures prior to the frontal wave will
be somewhat near seasonal averages.

High pressure builds in at the surface following the front`s exit
and remains in control late Saturday through early Tuesday. This
period will remain primarily dry, but with a few subtle shortwaves
passing aloft, it may not be all sunshine all the time. Temperatures
will be at their coldest following the frontal passage with lows
Saturday night in the mid/upper 20s in the interior and near or just
above freezing at the coast. Highs are then expected o remain in the
50s with nightly lows in the 30s to 40s.

High pressure exits as another low pressure system brings through
rainfall with another cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday.
Timing, magnitude, and track vary among the available global
guidance. But, all global guidances so far, do agree on a frontal
system impacting the area, one way or another. Most global guidance
thus far track the low to our north which would keep temperatures
warm enough to prevent any concerns for frozen precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low pressure pulls away from the terminals to the southeast as high
pressure builds back into the area this afternoon, moving
overhead on Thursday.

VFR through the TAF period. NE winds at 10kt or less should
become more N this afternoon as high pressure builds into the
area. Flow lightens even more to around 5kt tonight, remaining
generally N. High pressure moves overhead tomorrow with light
and variable winds by late morning-afternoon Thursday.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday Afternoon: VFR.

Friday: Mostly VFR. MVFR possible in the afternoon

Friday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain.
SW winds G15-20kt Friday. N/NW winds G15-20 kt Saturday.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Tranquil seas and light winds prevail through Thursday night as high
pressure settles over the waters. A S to SW flow increases Friday,
but conditions are expected to remain sub advisory with eastern
ocean wind gusts late in the day approaching 20 kt. Thus, there will
be a short window for near 25 kt gusts possible Saturday morning
with a frontal passage. Otherwise sub-SCA conditions are expected
for much of the long-term forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There remain no hydrologic concerns.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR