436
FXUS61 KOKX 081222
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
722 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will pass through the area this morning. Weak
high pressure will then drift across from late this morning
into tonight. Low pressure approaching from the Ohio Valley and
a secondary low developing near Long Island will then impact the
area Sunday into Sunday night, then pass east on Monday. A
series of fast moving systems will then traverse the region
through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Back edge of showers working across the NYC metro and up into
southern CT. The area is located right along the cold front that
will pass through the area. Any lingering rain should clear
Montauk by late morning, with skies becoming mostly sunny. High
temps will be on the mild side, in the lower/mid 60s, with a NW
breeze 10-15 mph in most places across Long Island and from NYC
north/west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
For Sunday, shortwave energy rotating about a polar vortex near
James Bay in eastern Canada will interact with energy in the
southern branch of the polar jet, carving out a longwave trough
over the eastern half of the country. This will send a surge of
much colder air southward behind developing low pressure over
the Ohio Valley into the Mid Atlantic states. As the primary low
lifts W of the Appalachians on Sunday, a warm front will
approach from the south, with secondary cyclogenesis taking
place off the NJ coast late in the afternoon, followed by a
cold frontal passage late Sunday night.

Overrunning rains will develop N of the approaching warm front
daytime Sunday, with the best chances in the afternoon, followed
by showers with the cold frontal passage later Sunday night.

Temperatures will remain above normal tonight through Sunday
night, with lows mainly in the 40s to near 50, and highs in the
upper 50s/lower 60s.

Lingering showers mainly across eastern Long Island/CT Mon
morning should come to an end by afternoon, with a W flow
developing and temps closer to normal. Secondary surge of colder
air Mon night will bring temps down, ranging to the mid 20s
well inland to mid 30s in NYC, with wind chills 15-20 inland and
20-25 for the NYC metro area and the immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key points:

* Below normal temperatures continue on Tue, with highs only in
  the 40s.

* Temperatures moderate Wed-Thu, with closer to normal values
  before becoming slightly cooler by Fri.

* Brisk winds expected much of the time, with W winds gusting to
  30-40 mph on Tue, and SW-W flow gusting up to 25-30 mph Wed-
  Thu.

* Much of the time period should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak cold front will pass through the area this morning,
followed by a secondary cold front this afternoon. High pressure
passes to the north tonight. A wave of low pressure along a warm
front approaches from the south on Sunday.

VFR with brief MVFR conditions this morning as the cold front
and associated showers move through the area, mainly impacting
the coastal terminals. Chance of MVFR conditions returning to
the 30h TAF sites toward 18Z Sunday.

W/SW winds will generally be less than 10 kt ahead of the cold
front this morning. Winds will then shift to the W and then
become WNW-NW for the remainder of the day. Speeds should
increase to 10-15 kt with the wind shift and there may be
occasional gusts up to 20 kt into the early afternoon. WNW-NW
winds diminish in the evening as the direction gradually shifts
to the NE at night, eventually ESE late tonight into Sunday
morning. .

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Brief MVFR ceilings 015-025 through about 13Z.

Timing of wind shift to the W-WNW may be off by 1-2 hours.

Gusts up to 20 kt possible 15Z-19Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Sunday: Rain developing toward afternoon. MVFR conditions
expected with IFR possible. SE winds G20kt in the afternoon.

Monday: Chance of rain and MVFR early. Otherwise VFR. NW-W winds
G15-20kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W winds G25-35kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G25-30kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA cond continue for the ocean, with SW winds gusting up to 25
kt and seas 5-8 ft, both highest E. Winds on the ocean waters
will diminish by daybreak but elevated seas 5-7 ft are likely
to persist through the day on all ocean waters, with 5-footers E
of Fire Island Inlet lingering into this evening.

Another period of elevated ocean seas up to 5 ft likely from
late morning into the evening on Sunday as SE flow increases to
20 kt.

And extended period of hazardous marine conditions should then
begin on Monday after a cold frontal passage, with gusts up to
25 kt and seas building to 5 ft on the ocean. SCA cond likely to
spread to all waters Mon night, with W winds gusting to 25-30
kt on all waters and ocean seas building to 5-7 ft. W to WSW
gales are then likely on the ocean from Tue into Wed, with gusts
35-40 kt and seas building to 5-10 ft, peaking early Tue
evening. A few gusts up to 35 kt are possible on the non ocean
waters Tue afternoon/night, with seas on the central/ern Sound
building to 5-6 ft in favorable W fetch.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Lingering high astronomical tides following a recent full moon
will result in water levels in some of the more vulnerable locales
across the south shore bays of Nassau and coastal Fairfield counties
to come close to minor benchmarks during the morning/early afternoon
high tide cycles today. Some locations need less than a foot to
reach minor. No statements planned at this time. However, while
high tide levels will slowly come down heading into Sunday, a
strengthening SE wind ahead of low pressure may provide just
enough of a surge to produce a better chance for minor coastal
flooding at these very same locations. This is looking like a
statement level event, but an advisory cannot be ruled out if
winds trend stronger than forecast.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG/DW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DW