931
FXUS61 KOKX 121942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
342 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain off the Mid Atlantic coast through
Monday night while strong high pressure also remains in place
over eastern Canada. The low will slowly pull away to the east
on Tuesday as the high to the north weakens. A cold front will
move through from the north on Wednesday, followed by high
pressure building from the west Thursday and Friday while
another low develops east of New England.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* A coastal storm will impact the area bringing significant
  coastal flooding, strong to damaging winds and a long
  duration moderate to locally heavy rainfall.

* Have mostly held course with the previous forecast as rain
  pivots NW into the area this afternoon/evening and winds
  gradually increase.

* Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for most of the
  coastline, with widespread moderate flooding expected and
  locally major flooding for southern Nassau/SW Suffolk.
  Advisories remain in effect for the CT coastline for minor
  flooding. Widespread beach erosion and localized overwashes
  are also expected along the oceanfront. See the Tides/Coastal
  Flooding section for more details.

* Strongest winds expected this evening into early Monday
  morning. Damaging winds sustained 35-40 mph with gusts 55-60
  mph expected across the east end of Long Island, with the
  highest winds in areas with eastern water exposure. Strong
  winds expected elsewhere mainly in the NYC metro area and
  along the coast, with gusts 45-55 mph, highest across Long
  Island.

* Moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall expected into Monday
  afternoon. Rainfall of 2-3 inches expected for eastern CT/Long
  Island, with lesser amts of 1-2 inches from the NYC metro area
  north/west. Minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible
  in typically flood prone areas.

Rain had overspread areas from NYC east as of 2 PM, and should
pivot NW into the west of the area through the afternoon and
early evening. Winds have actually decreased somewhat over land
in response to the incoming rain limiting vertical mixing, but
they should increase going into this evening as the pressure
gradient tightens significantly between a 1030 mb high over
Atlantic Canada and the low and associated warm front to the
south, and as a secondary low develops along the warm front E of
Delmarva and pivots back toward the Delaware or southern NJ
coast tonight while the primary low remains well to the south
along the Carolina coast. This secondary cyclogenesis appears
to be just underway, partly in response to area of convection
developing along the warm front near 37-38N 72-73W, and global
models are in better agreement on this evolution.

The forecast has still not changed much and no changes were
made to headlines based on latest 12Z data. Rain expected, and
isolated thunder can`t be ruled out near the coast late Mon
afternoon via some modest elevated instability. Winds peak late
this evening and overnight, and with models showing a moist
absolutely unstable layer just above the mixed layer think the
bulk of the 925-950 LLJ as forecast by the GFS should mix to
the sfc near the coast, with gusts over 60 mph across ern Long
Island, and 45-55 mph west of there into the rest of the
advisory area. Highest winds should be in areas with greater
exposure to NE winds off the water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Conditions remain windy and wet Monday night but winds will
decrease as the pressure gradient slackens with the low moving
to the east and the high weakening over Canada. Rain should
still be pretty steady for at least the first half of Monday
night and then gradually taper off from west to east.

Breaks of sun look possible from NYC north/west by Tuesday
afternoon, with Tuesday night potentially being partly cloudy
to mostly clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NBM used with little changes. Key Messages:

* Mainly dry conditions prevail, though can`t rule out a return
  of some showers to SE CT/ern Long Island later in the week via
  spokes of energy rotating around cutoff low diving SE from ern
  Canada into the NW Atlantic.

* Near normal temperatures on Wednesday will trend below normal
  Thursday into Friday as high pressure starts to build in after
  a cold frontal passage on Wed. A trend back to milder weather
  begins next weekend as the high settles over the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
***High impact coastal storm through Monday***

Rain overspreading from the south and west through this
afternoon, with conditions declining to sub VFR, persisting
through the TAF period.

Pushed back this decline by an hour or two with a bit slower
progression of the precip and lower cigs, but expect by 20 or
21Z all terminals will be raining and sub VFR.The rain becomes
moderate this evening and continues into the overnight with IFR,
prevailing through Monday morning, if not through the day as
the steady rain transitions into numerous showers.

NE flow strengthens through the afternoon. Gusts already up to
35 kt at coastal terminals as of 18Z, and will increase
further late afternoon/early evening with gusts up to 40 kt and
sustained winds 20-25 kt. The strongest winds are expected at
NYC and coastal terminals, with potential for peak gusts up to
50 kt after 00z at KISP and KGON, and perhaps even KLGA and
KJFK. Winds may start to weaken a bit after 06z Monday.

LLWS expected this evening at KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR, and KGON
with winds at 2kft around 50 kt. Winds at 2kft are a bit
weaker elsewhere, so LLWS is left out of the TAF these other
terminals.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely for ceilings and visibilities, especially this
afternoon through tonight.

Peak gusts 45 to 50 kt possible after 22z through around 06z
tonight, especially at KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Afternoon: Showers. MVFR or lower conditions. NE winds
15-20 kt with gusts 25-35 kt, gradually lowering into the evening.

Monday Night: Showers taper into Tuesday morning. MVFR or lower
conditions. N-NE winds gusting 20-30 kt, strongest near the
coast.

Tuesday: MVFR to start with a chance of showers. VFR becoming likely
in the afternoon. N to NNE winds sustained at 10-15kt, G20-25kt.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: VFR. NW wind gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A coastal storm will impact the waters through Monday bringing
strong winds and dangerous seas. Headlines remain unchanged
with a Storm Warning for all waters except the western Long
Island Sound and NY Harbor where there is a Gale Warning.
Across the ocean waters, gusts will be as high as 55 kt with
significant wave heights up to 22 ft. For the other waters
under a Storm Warning, gusts will be closer to 45-50 kt and
gusts in the Gale Warning areas should peak around 45 kt. Waves
on the Long Island Sound will likely reach 7-12 ft as well as
right near the entrance of the NY Harbor.

As the storm pulls away, headlines may need to be stepped down
as relatively windy conditions will continue for several days.
SCA conditions continue on all waters Wednesday into Thursday
due to building high pressure and lingering swells.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread rainfall of 1-3 inches is expected through Monday
night. While minor nuisance/poor drainage flooding is possible,
no significant impacts are expected with this being a long
duration rainfall and recent dry conditions.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Generally minor to locally moderate coastal flooding occurred or
is occurring with this afternoon high tidal cycle, as winds
have been a bit on the lower side of ensemble guidance to this
point, but moreso have been coming from the NNE vs more
favorable NE/ENE for surge development.

This forecast for late tonight and Monday afternoon high tides has
been weighted towards a reasonable worst case scenario to account
for closer to the coast depictions of low pressure track,
providing a safety margin for planning. Water levels would fall
on the lower end or short of current forecast range if winds
remain more from the north versus the northeast. There is
still potential for winds to veer back to the NE Monday if
secondary low development occurs near the DelMarVa as suggested
by some of the guidance.

Potential for major coastal flooding for the southern bays of W
LI and Jamaica Bay is dependent on the further north low
pressure solutions and veering of winds to the NE. Overall, the
magnitude and coverage for major coastal flooding (3ft
inundation AGL) thresholds exceedance has decreased in the
surge guidance as compared to yesterday for tonight and Monday
afternoon, but still a modest threat of local major for SW
Suffolk and Nassau County. This will pose an elevated threat to
property, and potentially life. The potential for major
flooding for Jamaica Bay is low, with moreso a widespread
moderate coastal flood event (2 to 2 1/2 ft inundation AGL)

Elsewhere, confidence is high in widespread minor to moderate
coastal flooding along N and E facing coastlines along Western
Long Island Sound, and twin forks of Long Island with
combination of water levels reaching marginal moderate flood
levels, along with 3- 6ft breaking wave action. In addition,
widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding expected along
NY/NJ harbor, including the tidally affected rivers of NE NJ,
particularly the Hackensack River.

Meanwhile, a widespread minor coastal flood threat exist for
southern CT where NE winds should limit wave action and keep
moderate flood impacts to localized. In addition, scattered
areas of minor to locally moderate coastal flooding expected
along low lying areas along the Hudson R during times of high
tide this aft thru Monday aft as surge if forced up the river.

No change to coastal flood headlines, but messaging on major
flooding has been tempered a bit based on trends.

A blend of 75th percentile Stevens, 75th percentile PETSS, and
deterministic STOFS and ETSS was used for this forecast. The
75th percentile was still used in the ensemble guidance to give
credence to NE vs NNE winds regimes and tidal piling over
successive high tide cycles.

Finally along the oceanfront, widespread dune base erosion and
localized overwashes are likely during the times of high tide
today thru Monday, via the combo of high stormtide and breaking
surf around 8 to 12 ft. The prolonged e to w sweep will likely
result in considerable beach erosion (escarpment) as well. 4-8
ft surf along NE facing and open water exposed areas of the twin
forks of Long Island will also likely cause minor to moderate
dune erosion.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009>012.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for CTZ009>012.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071>075-078-080-
     176>179.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ072-074-075-
     178.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for NYZ071-073-078-
     079-081-176-177.
     High Wind Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NYZ079-081.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 PM EDT Monday for NYZ080-179.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-106-108.
     Coastal Flood Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for NJZ006-104-106-
     108.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ335-338.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BG
HYDROLOGY...BG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV