184
FXUS61 KOKX 201127
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
627 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains in control through Friday. A weak cold front
and wave of low pressure then impact the area Friday night into
early Saturday. High pressure then returns for much of the weekend
and remains in place through early Tuesday. Another frontal system
looks to impact the area late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will be over the region, providing us with dry and
mainly clear conditions outside of some cirrus this morning and some
cloud cover rolling back in late tonight. High temperatures around 5
degree below normal. Tonight`s low temperatures in some areas may
occur before the typical near-sunrise timeframe due to clouds
shifting in. Blended in MAV/MET MOS with NBM to help capture
radiational cooling beforehand.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure hangs on long enough to keep us dry during the daytime
on Friday. More clouds around versus today, but at least it will be
milder with highs mostly in the lower and middle 50s.

Uncertainty then increases Friday night into Saturday morning
regarding rain chances. In general, American models are farther
north with a wave of low pressure and more favorable positioning of
an upper jet streak coupling. The northern fringe of the rain shield
is therefore farther north, bringing rainfall across the entire
forecast area. NBM PoPs seem to fairly represent the drier and
wetter solutions among the various models and ensembles. Above 50%
rain chances have therefore been kept for the southernmost zones. No
hydrologic impacts expected in any case. Rain would be most likely
late Friday night/early Saturday morning. High pressure then builds
back in for rest of Saturday with clearing and dry conditions. Highs
for Saturday near normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NBM was followed with no significant changes.

Key Points:

* Rain appears to be likely Tuesday night with rain still
  possible into Wednesday. Hydrologic impacts, if any, would
  appear to be limited at this point, but too early have high
  confidence.

* Dry weather otherwise during the long term period with close
  to normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure moves overhead today, and offshore late tonight
into Friday.

VFR through the TAF period.

Winds generally light and variable through the forecast with a light
northerly component overnight into early this morning, then
becoming a light southerly flow this evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Friday: Mostly VFR. MVFR possible late in the afternoon. SW
winds G15- 20kt.

Friday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain. N/NW
winds G15-20 kt Saturday.

Sunday through Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-advisory conditions will prevail through Sunday with high
pressure dominating most of the period. There however could be a few
gusts near 25kt on the ocean waters Saturday night and evening with
a wave of low pressure briefly tightening the pressure gradient.
Next chance of advisory thresholds otherwise would be on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the forecast period.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC
NEAR TERM...JC
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JC
HYDROLOGY...JC