579
FXUS61 KOKX 190242
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quick-moving low passes to the south and off the Mid Atlantic
coast tonight into Wednesday. High pressure returns to the
region Thursday, before exiting offshore ahead of a frontal
system that impacts the area Friday into Saturday. High pressure
then briefly returns the second half of the weekend and remain
into the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A fast moving low passes south of the area late tonight. There
is a lighter flow than recent days with a more relaxed pressure
field as high pressure moves offshore and the low approaches to
the south.

To the west was a weak-amplitude shortwave trough and sfc low
pressure over the lower OH Valley. This progressive wave will
pass through eastern PA overnight and into the waters south of
Long Island into Wed. Modest burst of warm advection associated
with the sfc low will allow for a shield of precip to break out
after midnight tonight from west to east. Even factoring in
potential wet-bulb cooling, precip is expected to fall as plain
rain for NW NJ and NYC/LI overnight into the early Wed morning
hours. Rain amts are not significant with totals around a tenth
of an inch or less in most areas, limited by the fast- moving
nature of this low. Further northwest into the Western Highlands
and into southern CT, drier air will be tough to fully scour
out and could create a pretty sharp south- to- north gradient in
the precip shield. Were anything to fall in these locations,
and it`s debatable given the drier air below cloud base, precip
may mix with wet snowflakes but impact would be nil from these.
Lows upper 20s to freezing for southern CT/Lower Hudson to the
mid 30s to low 40s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure exits to our southeast and offshore during the Wed
morning hours. High pressure then reasserts from the northwest.

Areas of rain to taper off from NW to SE through Wed morning,
with overcast skies improving to partly to mostly sunny
conditions for Wed and again into Thurs. Temperatures should
still be pretty seasonable by mid November standards in the 40s.

Light winds and lingering moisture in the low levels should
allow for widespread areas of frost to develop overnight into
Thu AM, but mainly for colder inland areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overall no substantial change for late in the workweek into
early next week. Frontal system for Fri could be a little
moisture starved which could limit QPF amts. Remainder of the
forecast and key messaging below remains valid.

Key Points:

* A frontal system will impact the region Friday into Saturday as
  low pressure passes north of the region. A warm front remains near
  the region on Friday, followed by a cold front on Saturday.

* High pressure returns for the second half of the weekend and first
  part of next week with dry conditions.

* High temperatures will be within a few degrees of normal for
  this time of year. Generally in the lower and middle 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak wave of low pressure passes to the south of the
terminals overnight into early Wednesday morning. High pressure
builds in Wednesday and remains into Thursday.

VFR, becoming MVFR after 07Z with light rain, and a low chance
of light snow at KSWF. Highest chances of rain will be along the
south shore of Long Island, and mainly at the NYC metro
terminals. Precipitation ends north and west to south and east
around 12Z to 16Z. Becoming VFR soon after the precipitation
ends.

Light W/SW winds to light and variable remain through the
overnight and become N less than 10 kt as the low moves away and
precipitation ends late Wednesday morning into the afternoon.
Winds may briefly back to NW late Wednesday afternoon.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There is a very low chance of ceilings lowering to IFR range
for a brief period overnight into early Wednesday morning, and
mainly at KEWR, KJFK, and possibly at KLGA.

Improvement back to VFR may be an hour later than forecast.


.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday night through Thursday: VFR.

Thursday night through Saturday: MVFR or lower at times in rain.
SW winds G15-20kt Friday. N/NW winds G15-20 kt Saturday.

Sunday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas remain below advisory levels through at least
Saturday, and possibly into Sunday. SCA conditions look to
return on the ocean Sunday night into the first part of next
week as the gradient tightens and seas build to 5 ft or greater.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no significant hydrological concerns through early
next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...99
HYDROLOGY...99