480
FXUS61 KOKX 070229
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
929 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds over the area into Sunday. A strong
cold front will move through Sunday night ushering in a cold
high pressure system for Monday into Tuesday. A couple of low
pressure systems may impact the area the mid to late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Weak high pressure will gradually build in from the west into
the overnight as the disturbances causing the showery activity
earlier in the day shifts to the east. The building in high
pressure will allow for some weak CAA into the area under a
light W to eventual NW flow. Skies will be generally clearing
tonight. Lows will be in the 20s with the immediate coast and
the NYC metro remaining in the low 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the area on Sunday quickly translates east
with increasing cloud cover by afternoon courtesy of a passing
shortwave to the north. While cloud cover will increase and a
weak southerly flow develops, no precipitation is expected in
the area as the low passes to the north, though a stray flurry
or light snow shower for northern areas isn`t completely ruled
out. High temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 30s inland
to the lower 40s along and closer to the coast.

By evening, a strong cold front moves through allowing for a
wind shift to the NW and strong CAA into the area. This is ahead
of a strong and cold high pressure system building into the
area for Monday and Monday night. Lows on Sunday night will be
in the 20s for the entire area, though some outlying spots may
drop into the upper teens. Wind chill values will make the air
feel like it is in the teens along the coast and possibly single
digits for northern locations.

Cold air settles over the area on Monday with high temperatures
well below average. Afternoon highs are only expected to rise
into the middle to upper 20s inland and into the low 30s along
the coast. Despite mostly clear skies with ample sunshine during
the day, the combination of brisk NW flow and cold air will
allow for wind chill values to not rise out of the upper teens
to lower 20s during the day.

High pressure moves more solidly over the area Monday night
allowing for a decrease in the wind. Some radiational cooling is
possible overnight but some high level clouds moving in may
prevent temperatures from dropping more than forecast.
Regardless, lows are expected to be some of the coldest of the
season thus far with lows in the single digits for extreme NW
portions of the area with teens expected just about everywhere
else. Some spots near NYC may only drop into the low 20s. It is
possible for some outlying spots to drop lower than forecast if
clouds hold off for a bit longer than expected and wind goes
calm at some point overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM was followed with only minor changes made to winds.

Key Points:

* A series of quick-moving systems brings chances of precipitation,
  to the area late Tuesday night through Saturday. Precipitation
  types of mainly rain for the coast and a wintry mix inland.

* Temperatures below normal through the period except on Wednesday,
  when they`ll be near normal.

* Conditions likely remain below warning and advisory thresholds.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases during the Thursday night-
Saturday period. This is when model spread increases regarding the
position and timing of low pressure centers/frontal boundaries that
may impact the area. Chances of precipitation are at 50% or lower
through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds to the southwest through the overnight,
before sliding offshore on Sunday. A strong cold front passes
through the region Sunday evening.

VFR.

A light WNW/NW flow to light and variable continues through the
overnight. Variable winds are likely for a period late Sunday
morning, before a general SW flow becomes established in the
early afternoon at around 10 kt.


 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Direction could hang near, or just north of, 310 mag for the Sun AM
push.

Winds become variable after 15Z Sun, before becoming SW by
early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Sunday night: VFR. NW gusts 20-25 kt developing late.

Monday: VFR. NW-N gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt in the afternoon/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible w/ chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley. S-SW gusts 20-25kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Sunday. An increase in
the pressure gradient behind a cold frontal passage Sunday night
will allow winds to increase to SCA criteria for much of the
waters by Monday morning. Non-ocean waters likely fall below SCA
conditions by Monday evening with the ocean waters falling
below SCA conditions later at night.

SCA conditions are once again possible by Tuesday afternoon
through much of next week as multiple low pressure systems could
impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW