047
FXUS61 KOKX 051452
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
952 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure building from the west will pass east this
afternoon. A weak low pressure trough extending north from low
pressure moving off the southern Mid Atlantic coast will impact
the area mainly late tonight into Saturday morning. Weak high
pressure will then be over the area Saturday night into Sunday.
A strong cold front will move through Sunday night. Behind it,
high pressure will build from the west, remaining in control
through Tuesday. Low pressure passing to the north may impact
the area during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold day in store as temps will get no higher than 25-30
inland, the lower 30s most elsewhere, and the mid/upper 30s
across eastern Long Island, and some daily record low maxes may
be approached at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Cloud shield associated with the developing low to the south may
overspread NYC metro and Long Island for a time this morning,
then may briefly retreat late this morning before overspreading
the entire CWA this afternoon. There is a slight chance that
some light snow or rain may reach NYC and the south shore of
Long Island late this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tricky situation involving p-type along the coast tonight into
Sat morning with a weak inverted trough extending from the low
passing well to the south, as fcst soundings show low level
moisture confined to levels at temps typically too warm for ice
nucleation (-10C), and with low temps at the surface cold enough
for wintry wx, mostly in the 20s, and lower 30s in NYC and
across the forks of Long Island. Sometimes ice nucleation can
still occur in situations like this where there is maritime
influence. Due to the uncertainty have forecast light snow or
light freezing rain/drizzle along the coast where temps remain
below freezing, and light snow/rain where temps are above.
Inland have kept p-type light snow. QPF is very light, only a
few hundredths of an inch at best across eastern Long Island and
a trace to 0.01" elsewhere, and only have 20-30 PoP at most.
So would not expect more than a very light coating of snow, or
a very light glaze of ice where freezing rain if any does occur.
A winter wx advisory may need to be issued later on as it
becomes more apparent which areas would likely experience light
freezing rain/drizzle.

Temps after precip ends on Sat will rise to the upper 30s/lower
40s, then fall back once again to the 20s and lower 30s. With no
change in air mass for Sunday high temps should once again reach
the upper 30s/lower 40s in most spots.

Cold fropa Sunday night will be preceded by a chance of snow
showers mainly inland and out east. Fropa should take place
after midnight, with colder air starting to coming in on a
gusty NW flow, and lows from the upper teens well inland to the
20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Points:

* Some of the coldest air of the season so far moves in early
  next  week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday likely in
  the upper 20 and 30s region-wide, with morning wind chills in
  the single digits and teens.

Troughing aloft across much of the Eastern US to start the
period. A cold front moves across the area Sunday night that
ushers in a modifying arctic air mass through early next week.

A 1030 mb surface high builds east over the Mid Atlantic into
Tuesday, keeping conditions cold and dry locally. Daytime
highs both Monday and Tuesday look to remain mostly in the 30s,
or even 20s inland, and a gusty NW flow behind the front will
add to the cold. Morning wind chills Tuesday could fall into the
single digits to near 0 inland, and teens along the coast,
which would not warrant any cold headlines.

A clipper system may move through the Northeast on Wednesday,
bringing the next chance for precipitation, with potentially
another system later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure settles over the area this morning. The high
weakens this afternoon as low pressure passes well to the
south tonight.

VFR through this afternoon. MVFR ceilings should develop near
the coast this evening, then spreading inland overnight There
is also a chance of some flurries or light snow near the coast
this evening into tonight. Have kept PROB30 for now as coverage
is expected to be limited. There is also a low chance for some
pockets of -FZRA or -FZDZ, but confidence not high enough to
include in the TAF at this time. IFR ceilings are also possible
overnight.

Light easterly component winds today followed by light and
variable winds tonight.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Timing of MVFR ceilings may be off by a few hours. Winds at
KJFK could be closer to 130 magnetic for a short period any time
from approx 18-21z

Some flurries/light snow possible tonight, but coverage should
be limited. Low chance of -FZRA or -FZDZ, but confidence in
occurrence and timing are not high enough to include in the TAF
at this time.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: MVFR possible in the morning with a low chance of
mainly light rain E of the NYC metros. Otherwise, VFR
prevails.

Sunday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR and light rain/snow mix at
night.

Monday and Tuesday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Sub-SCA conditions through the weekend.

SCA conditions are possible through much of next week beginning
Monday as multiple low pressure systems could impact the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected at this time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels are running high around the times of high tide due
to yesterday`s full moon, with departures of 1 ft or less
needed to reach minor flood thresholds today and Saturday.
Latest combo of bias-corrected ETSS, STOFS, and NYHOPS
ensemble 50th percentile guidance has trended upward slightly,
and indicates that water levels may get close to minor flood
thresholds with the high tide late this morning in isolated
spots along the SW CT coastline. Due to the isolated nature have
not issued a statement.

Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds with the Saturday
morning late morning/midday high tide cycle in spots along the
back bays of Nassau and Queens, tidal waterways of NE NJ, the
SW CT coastline, and at Shinnecock and Montauk out east.
A coastal flood statement may eventually be issued to
address this.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Low temps this morning may reach daily record lows at
KBDR/KLGA/KJFK. High temps today may also be close to daily
record low maxes at KEWR/KLGA/KJFK.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...BG/MW
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JC/JT
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...