496
FXUS61 KOKX 092044
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
344 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves well out into the Atlantic into this evening.
A weak wave of low pressure moves northward within the Western
Atlantic late tonight into early Wednesday. A stronger wave of low
pressure approaches from the west Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening with a corresponding strong cold front moving across late
Wednesday night. High pressure builds in from the south and west
Thursday into Friday. A weak upper level disturbance will move
across Friday night into Saturday morning. An Arctic cold front
will approach Saturday night, then move through on Sunday as
offshore low pressure forms along the front. Strong high
pressure will then build in Monday as the low intensifies near
Atlantic Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Key Points:

* Dry tonight but relatively warmer low temperatures compared to
  previous night.

Going into tonight, low level winds shift more to southwesterly.
This sets up warm air advection. Clouds increase in coverage and
SW winds at the surface remain steady.

Radiational cooling will be mitigated as a result. NBM temperatures
were used for lows, ranging from near 20 to near 30. These lows will
actually likely be set during this evening with temperatures upward
late tonight into early Wednesday as clouds lower and thicken.
Going into Wednesday morning temperatures of low to upper 20s
are expected across much of the interior while closer to the
coast, temperatures are mostly in the low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Minor snow event forecast for Western Passaic NJ, Orange
  County NY, Putnam County NY and northern tip of Fairfield
  County CT Wednesday. Snow mixing with rain much of the event
  will limit accumulations of snow. Total snow accumulations
  forecast of near 1 inch or less.

* For interior areas mentioned in 1st point, a brief period of
  freezing rain is possible at the onset early Wednesday but
  probability for this is low.

* Rain expected for the rest of the forecast region not
  mentioned in the 1st point for Wednesday into Wednesday
  evening.

* Gusty winds forecast Wednesday and Thursday. Max gusts
  forecast mainly near 35 to 40 mph but some peak gusts to near
  45 to 50 mph are possible, especially Thursday.


Upper level jet has been situated south of the region. One
particular streak is shown in the numerical weather prediction
models to pass south of the region Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. The local area is near the left front quad of that jet
streak. Then, the models show this jet streak to move southeast
away from the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Jet remains
situated south of the region Thursday into Thursday night.

At the surface, a strong wave of low pressure, down to near 987 mb
according to forecast models, moves from the Great Lakes into
interior parts of the Northeast Wednesday. This will have an
associated strong cold front approaching the region.

Forcing for lift increases with associated omega increase from late
morning through the afternoon. This is when precipitation will
develop and move east within the region with highest POPs. Ambient
temperature will be key and timing differences with onset of
precipitation will be quite important as well.

Locations north and west of NYC have a wintry mix and with
dynamic cooling expected, will likely keep that wintry mix as
wet bulb cooling cools the lower levels of the atmosphere. The
wintry mix will be mainly rain and snow. Still have these
locations with rising temperatures to the low to mid 30s so any
snow accumulations are forecast to be limited to near 1 inch or
less. The timing of this event will really limit the snowfall
accumulation in this case.

For other locations within the forecast region, a rain event is
expected. Steady light to occasionally moderate rain is
expected, mainly from late morning through the afternoon. This
rain will linger into the evening especially across eastern
parts of Long Island and Southern CT. Brief heavy rain will be
possible with that omega increase.

Max temperatures forecast for Wednesday range from the mid 30s for
Orange County NY to lower 50s across Eastern Long Island. For
Wednesday night, the strong cold frontal passage late will be
ushering in a much colder airmass, with lows ranging from lower 20s
to lower 30s and with increasing winds, wind chills by early
Thursday morning are mainly near the 10 to 20 degrees range.

A much colder day is expected Thursday compared to the previous day.
This continental polar airmass will be moving in and with 850mb
temperatures near -15 degrees C. Temperatures only expected to
rise into the 30s for high temperatures Thursday, well below
normal for this time of year. Another day of gusty winds
expected as well. Max gusts look to stay near 35 to 40 mph but
an occasional peak gust to near 45 to 50 mph is possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Temperatures will be at least several degrees below normal Friday
  and Saturday.

* A clipper low may bring light snow or flurries Friday night into
  Saturday morning.

* An Arctic cold front and associated upper level disturbance will
  bring a better chance for light snow Saturday night into Sunday
  morning.

* A shot of Arctic air will follow for later Sunday into Tuesday,
  with temps up to 10 degrees below normal.

Models continue to trend weaker with the approaching upper level sys
Fri night, at least at the surface. With the associated mid level
level vort max aimed at the CWA, kept a mention for some light snow,
with little/no accumulation expected.

A potent closed low diving SE out of central Canada Sat night and
passing N on Sunday will drive an Arctic cold front through on
Sunday, which will be capable of producing some accumulating light
snow. Miller B type cyclogenesis is also likely along the front on
Sunday SE of New England after it passes through, likely too late to
have impact on local snowfall totals. This combo will bring colder
conditions for later Sunday through Tue, and it could also become
blustery Sunday night into Mon due to the tight pressure gradient
between the intensifying low as it heads toward Atlantic Canada and
high pressure building to the west. The high should build over the
area on Tue.

Temps will run about 10 degrees below normal on Mon, with lows in
the teens and lower 20s, and highs from the mid 20s to lower 30s.
Wind chills early Mon morning could drop to the single digits
throughout. Only slight moderation in high temps (30-35) expected
for Tue, with less wind chill impact as winds lighten.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure pushes offshore this afternoon. Low pressure
approaches from the west Wednesday.

VFR through Wednesday morning, except for KSWF where MVFR
conditions move in between 15Z and 18Z Wednesday in association
with precipitation moving in here with the low. It will start
off as snow, with a transition to rain/snow mix by mid to late
Wednesday afternoon.

Light southerly winds this afternoon before shifting more SW
tonight and increasing. Occasional gusts for the city terminals
to around 15 kt through overnight tonight, except KJFK (and
other coastal terminals such as KISP, KBDR, and KGON) where
gusts of around 20 kt are expected (gusts may die off at KBDR or
become more occasional there after 06Z, before starting up
again Wednesday afternoon). Winds strengthen a bit after 14Z
Wednesday, becoming 15 to 20 kt sustained for most terminals,
with gusts 25 to around 30 kt (lower for KSWF). There is a low
chance for wind shear of 40-45 kt at around 2 kft across the
city terminals and the Lower Hudson Valley between 12-18Z
Wednesday, but the potential is too low to include at this time

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected through this evening.
Amendments possible for start time of gusts overnight.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday: MVFR or lower with a chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley, rain elsewhere. S-SW
10-15 G25-30 KT possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 25- to around 30 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts
15-20 kt.

Sunday: MVFR or lower in snow. NW flow with guts to around 20
kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Forecast waters are initially below SCA thresholds heading into
this evening. Then winds are expected to increase tonight with
all waters expected to reach SCA levels for wind gusts and ocean
for both winds and gusts. The winds further increase Wednesday
with gales expected on most waters. SCA remains for NY Harbor.
Ocean seas Wednesday forecast to build to near 7 to 11 feet with
3 to 5 feet for the Eastern Long Island Sound seas.

After a brief decrease in synoptic pressure gradient Wednesday
evening, the pressure gradient increases again late Wednesday night
into Thursday. For Wednesday night, winds eventually lower to SCA
levels for most waters except for ocean which will take longer to
subside. NY Harbor probably remains at SCA levels. Another
round of gales possible for Thursday into Thursday night. Ocean
seas remain near 7 to 11 ft Wednesday night through Thursday
night. A greater part of Long Island is forecast to have
seas of 3 to 5 feet Thursday into Thursday night.

SCA cond on all waters Fri morning (W winds gusting to 25-30 kt,
with seas 5-10 ft on the ocean and 4-5 ft on the central/ern Sound)
should slowly wind down Fri afternoon, lingering on the ocean waters
(gusts up to 25 kt and seas 4-6 ft) into Fri evening. After an upper
level disturbance passes by, SCA cond should return to the ocean
waters Sat morning and the non ocean waters Sat afternoon, with
gusts 25-30 kt and ocean seas 3-5 ft, and continue into Sat night.

After an Arctic cold frontal passage on Sunday, then as low pressure
develops/intensifies along the front SE of New England, winds should
veer NW, and gale force wind gusts will be possible. Seas should
build to 5-8 ft on the ocean, and up to 5 ft on the
central/ern Sound.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Less than a quarter of an inch of rain forecast Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Some locally higher amounts possible. No
hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-
     335-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ338.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM Wednesday to 1 AM EST Thursday for
     ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BG/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...BG/JM
HYDROLOGY...BG/JM