342
FXUS61 KOKX 032051
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
351 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to build in the remainder of today, weakening
tonight into Thursday morning. A cold front will pass through Thursday
afternoon, followed quickly by another strong high pressure system
building from the west Thursday night into Friday. The high will pass
east Friday night. Weak low pressure passes off the southern Mid
Atlantic coast Friday night into Saturday. Brief high pressure Saturday
night into Sunday gives way to another cold front passage Sunday night.
High pressure will then be in control early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Mostly sunny conditions will remain for the remainder of the day
due to high pressure firmly in place. High pressure then weakens
tonight.

Lows overnight will again drop below freezing. Lows overnight will
be near 32 in NYC, upper 20s at the rest of the coast then into the
mid to low 20s in interior locations. Despite freezing temperatures
anticipated, black ice is not a major concern. Any lingering wet
surfaces that froze over this morning, should be dried out by sunset
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Cold frontal passage will usher in a quick shot of very cold air
  Thursday night into Friday.

* Weak low pressure passing well south may brush the area with some
  light snow/rain Friday night.

NBM brings the cold front through dry Thu afternoon, but some CAMs
have a hints of precip with the front. Its likely it will remain a
dry frontal passage with low PWATs in place, but the strong forcing
could lead to a few flurries N & W of NYC Thursday afternoon. Max
temperatures on Thursday should reach the upper 30s to lower 40s
prior to the cold front`s arrival. Streamers from the Great Lakes
following the frontal passage are unlikely to make it into the area
Thursday evening, but still something worth monitoring.

A gusty NW flow will usher in very cold air for Thu night into Fri,
with low temps from the lower 20s in NYC, to the teens most
elsewhere, to some single digits well inland, with wind chills as
low as the single digits inland and the teens elsewhere. Temps may
have a hard time rising above freezing in the NYC metro area and
coastal sections on Fri, and it should remain quite cold inland,
with highs only 25-30. Record low temps for BDR/LGA/JFK, and record
low maximum temps for all climate sites except NYC, may be in
jeopardy on Friday. See the Climate section for current records.

As the high slides east Fri night, the precip shield with weak low
pressure passing well south off the Mid Atlantic coast may skirt the
area. Forecast carries 30-35 PoPs for Long Island, 20-30 PoPs most
elsewhere, and it may remain completely dry in Orange County with
only 20 PoPs. Any snow amts would be on the light side, with no more
than a coating mainly for NYC metro/Long Island.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Light precip remains possible Saturday morning, especially east of
  the NYC metro and Hudson River.

* Mainly dry conditions should then prevail late Saturday through early
  next week.

* Below normal temperatures expected through early next week.

* A cold air mass appears likely Sunday night through Tuesday. Highs on
  Monday may struggle to rise above freezing even down to the coast.

The modeling is in good agreement with the overall pattern for the
upcoming weekend. A mainly flat, progressive flow will keep weak low
pressure well offshore over the Atlantic on Saturday. Upper trough axis
persists to the NW across the Great Lakes. There may be a weak surface
trough over the northeast on Saturday, so have kept low precip
probabilities for now. Any precip that occurs would be occurring within
marginal thermal profiles. Light rain is possible at the coast with
possibly some wet snow inland. It should be noted the day could end up
dry as the lift and moisture is limited Saturday morning.

Conditions should improve heading into Saturday night as weak high
pressure builds returns through Sunday. A stronger cold front will move
across the area Sunday night that will usher in a cold air mass for
early next week. The cold air looks to hang around into Tuesday. Lows
Monday look to fall into the teens and low 20s with highs on Monday in
the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows Tuesday morning may be in the teens for
much of the area with highs moderating a bit into the 30s. Moderating
temperatures are signaled with the latest model consensus indicating
highs rebounding into upper 30s inland and low to mid 40s near the
coast.

A clipper system may move across the northeast on Wednesday, but this
is a week out and models/ensembles differ on timing and strength of the
low pressure.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure settles nearby to the south into this evening. The
high weakens late tonight as a cold front approaches from the
northwest. The cold front moves through for the late morning and
early afternoon Thursday.

VFR.

Light NW to W winds become light and variable toward 00Z this
evening outside of the NYC metro terminals. The winds then increase
slightly into early Thursday morning.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. W to WNW winds G25-30kt. Low chance for
afternoon rain/snow shower activity with a cold frontal passage.

Friday: VFR during the day. Chance of MVFR and light snow at night,
especially for southern and eastern terminals.

Saturday: Chance of MVFR and light rain in the morning, mainly E of
the NYC metros.

Sunday: VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Seas 5+ ft should continue on the ern ocean waters tonight, lower
elsewhere. These then spread to all ocean waters daytime Thu ahead of a
cold front, along with gusts up to 25 kt. After fropa in the afternoon,
expect solid gales on the ern ocean waters from late Thu afternoon into
Thu evening, and a Gale Warning has been issued. Gales are also
possible on all other waters during this timeframe, except on the NY
Harbor, and a Gale Watch has been issued. Ocean seas should build to 5-
8 ft by Thu evening, and up to 5 ft on the central/ern Sound.

Winds and seas quickly ramp down late Thu night, with sub-SCA
cond on all waters by daytime Fri and continuing through the weekend.
The next chance for SCA conditions occurs Sunday night into Monday as a
cold front moves across the waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the middle of next
week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Water levels may touch minor flood thresholds at the Bridgeport and
Stamford tide gauges with the midday high tide on Sat as low pressure
passes well south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temps for KBDR/KLGA/KJFK, and record low maximum
temps for all climate sites except KNYC, may be in jeopardy on
Friday December 5th.

Record Low Temperatures:

KEWR: 15/1935
KBDR: 17/1989
KNYC: 11/1926
KLGA: 21/1942
KJFK: 20/1966
KISP: 13/1966

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

KEWR: 31/2002
KBDR: 28/2002
KNYC: 22/1886
KLGA: 32/2002
KJFK: 33/2007
KISP: 30/2002

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KOKX radar is out of service.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for ANZ331-332-335-340-345-355.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for
     ANZ338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ350-353.
     Gale Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ350-
     353.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BR/DS
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...BR/DS
HYDROLOGY...BR/DS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLIMATE...
EQUIPMENT...