109
FXUS61 KOKX 010242
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
942 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes through the area and moves offshore
overnight, followed by high pressure building in from the west
into Monday. The high retreats offshore Monday night as low
pressure develops over the southern states. A secondary coastal
low forms along the Mid Atlantic coast early Tuesday, passing
south and east of Long Island Tuesday afternoon and evening.
High pressure largely prevails for the second half of the week
with the exception of a cold frontal passage on Thursday.
Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The rain has exited the eastern portions of the area, with
breaks in the clouds now entering western most portions of the
area. Improving skies move in, especially towards and after
05-06z.

The winds have switched to more of a westerly direction and will
continue to gradually veer, eventually to the WNW, and more to
the NW towards daybreak as cold advection and clearing skies
will follow behind the cold front with lows in the lower to mid
30s by daybreak. This is close to normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

*Winter Storm Watch in Effect for Orange County on Tuesday.

*Coastal storm to bring an accumulating snow to portions of the
 interior, but mainly rain at the coast.

High pressure builds in from the west through Monday evening
with diminishing NW winds and clear skies. Highs will top out in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The focus then shifts to a winter storm that is likely to bring
part of the area its first accumulating snowfall of the season.
Southern branch shortwave energy tracking across the central
Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley on Monday will link
up with low pressure over Gulf of Mexico. The latter of which
tracks NE across the Southeast Monday night and then begins to
deepen more quickly along the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday
morning. The deepening coastal low will take a track to the
south and east of Long Island Tuesday afternoon and evening,
passing in close vicinity to the 40N...70W benchmark. The 12Z
ECMWF continues to track to the southeast of the benchmark as
does the EPS and GEFs. The other 12Z operationals, NAM12 and
Canadian are still inside to the NW and the warmer solutions.
However, solutions are converging and even though the ECMWF is
farthest SE, there is quite a bit of troughing to the NE of the
low track. Subtle shifts in the low track will be critical to
vertical temperature profiles and how far inland the rain/snow
line gets. Differences in the low track seem to be hinging on
the interaction with a northern branch shortwave dropping across
the Midwest and Great Lakes during this time.The system is
progressive with no blocking over the north Atlantic, which is
the same reason high pressure quickly retreats away from the
Northeast along with the cold air supply. Thus, the airmass is
only marginally cold enough for inland locations to receive a
snowfall with coastal locations likely to be all rain (possible
mix at the onset).

Precipitation will develop from west to east Tuesday morning
with coastal locations possibly seeing a brief mix. Rain/snow
line will lift northwest across the interior with the only
locations expected to be mainly snow will be north and west of
I-84 in Orange County NY. This of course can change with even
subtle shifts in track. Coastal locations will see little if any
accumulation, with as much as 4 to 7 inches possible across
Orange County NY, especially the higher elevations. This area
has been placed under a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday. Some
locations in the inland transition zone could see 2 to 5 inches,
which is advisory level. However, confidence is too low at this
time for the issuance of an advisory. Liquid equivalent amounts
come to just under an inch well northwest across upper portions
of the Lower Hudson Valley to as much as an 1.5 inches across
far eastern LI.

NBM probabilities have increased to around 50 percent for
meeting warning criteria (6 inches or more)across western
Passaic, Orange, and Putnam counties. For advisory level (3 to
to 5 inches), there is 50-70 percent probability for Northern
Fairfield CT, central/northern Putnam and Westchester NY, and
western Passaic NJ.

Surface temperatures will also be marginal with highs in the
lower to mid 30s inland. However, in the watch area where
snowfall rates of 1-2 inches/hour are possible, snow will be
able to cover roadways. Coastal locations will get up into the
40s. Refreezing of any standing water is likely Tuesday night as
much of the area drops below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Points:

* About 10+ degrees below normal for high temperatures through the
  entire long term period.

* A cold front moves through Thursday bringing in a frigid airmass
  for Thursday night into Friday.

* Another low pressure system may impact the area next weekend.

High pressure builds in behind the departing low on Wednesday and
will be followed by a cold frontal passage on Thursday. This is
expected to be a dry frontal passage. A cold airmass then builds in
and could bring lows as low as the single digits to parts of the
interior.

Next weekend there is potential for another system to impact the
area, but at this time there is too much uncertainty for specifics
on rain/snow and stuck close to the NBM during that period.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A frontal system moves through the terminals during the first half
of tonight. High pressure briefly returns late tonight into Monday.

Conditions have been slow to improve as VFR conditions have been
nudged back a couple of hours from earlier. It now appears VFR
prevails by 04-05z at all terminals.

W winds take hold, with gusts mainly around 17 to 25 kt with the
frontal passage. Some terminals will have gusts end for a bit
overnight before gusts return later Monday morning. The winds
gradually veer to the NW late in the overnight and into the morning
push. On Monday the winds will gust out of the NW, more so from 13-
14z to 18z, with gusts ending towards 19z. The winds become more N
towards the evening push and lighter, closer to 5 kt.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments may be needed over the next couple of hours as conditions
have been slow to improve from MVFR and IFR to VFR.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday night: VFR. Light winds.

Tuesday: MVFR in rain along the coast, IFR to LIFR NW in snow, with
a transition zone of rain/snow north and northwest of the NYC
terminals, expected in the morning. Widespread IFR to LIFR late
morning into the afternoon with rain, moderate to briefly heavy at
times. LIFR to VLIFR in snow at KSWF through the afternoon.
Conditions slowly improving to VFR during the evening from west to
east as the precipitation ends. Winds SE to E G15-20kt, becoming N
by late day with G15-25kt, highest at the coastal terminals.

Wednesday through Friday: VFR. NW G15-20kt Wednesday. W G20-30kt
Thursday. Light winds Friday.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions both along and ahead of a cold frontal passage
this evening will produce SCA conditions on the ocean waters
through Monday morning, and into the early morning for far
eastern LI Sound, Peconic/Gardiners Bays, and the south shore
bays. Winds and seas will lower as high pressure builds in from
the west late tonight into Monday.

Winds and seas increase through the day on Tuesday with the
passage of an offshore low pressure system. SCA wind gusts are
likely on the ocean waters by the afternoon, and by the evening
for the non-ocean waters. There may also be a brief period
Tuesday night with gusts reaching gale criteria. Additionally,
current wind forecast has seas reaching 5 to 9 feet for the
ocean waters. It is worth noting that there is some uncertainty
given the nature of the system. A small change in forecast track
of the offshore low could cause a larger change in forecast
winds than usual.

The system pulls away on Wednesday and winds and seas gradually
lower. SCA seas may linger on the ocean waters through the day
Wednesday. The next shot at SCA criteria will be with a cold
frontal passage on Thursday and then again next weekend with
another area of low pressure potentially impacting the area.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the area should not have problems with the potential of
1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent on Tuesday. Minor nuisance/poor
drainage flooding is possible, especially with snowmelt and
clogged drains. Otherwise, there are no significant hydrologic
concerns expected through next weekend.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday
     evening for NYZ067.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for ANZ332-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW