082
FXUS61 KOKX 081741
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1241 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the west into Tuesday. The high
weakens and shifts offshore as a weak clipper low passes to the
north Tuesday night. A much stronger low will approach on
Wednesday, passing to the north Wednesday night into Thursday
and sending a cold front through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Points:

* A quick shot of cold air to settle across the area today into
  tonight, leading to subfreezing daytime highs and wind chills
  in the single digits and teens at times.

Low pressure lifts northeast up into the Canadian Maritimes
this afternoon, while high pressure builds in from the west.
Strong cold advection will be accompanied by NW-N winds gusting
up to 30 mph, with winds diminishing late this morning into this
afternoon. High pressure then builds into the area tonight with
clearing skies and diminishing winds.

Highs are expected to get no higher than the mid to upper 20s
this afternoon. Deviated from the NBM for lows tonight and
weighted in some MOS, which can have a better handle with strong
radiational cooling. The one limiting factor could be a veil of
high clouds that moves into the area today. How quickly these
clouds lift out of the area tonight will be critical to the low
temperature forecast. Right now, expect lows to range from the
single digits inland, to the teens along the coast. Record lows
are unlikely.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Points:

* Gradual warmup Tuesday into Wednesday, with highs likely in
  the 40s on Wednesday.

* Multiple clipper systems impact the area Tuesday night through
  Wednesday night with mainly light precipitation events. Best
  chance for some wintry weather will be northwest of NYC on
  Wednesday, but even these locations will likely go over to all
  rain. Minor accumulation possible inland.

A progressive upper flow will continue to send clipper systems
from western Canada SE across the country and into the area
during this time. The first system will be the weaker of the two
with a low chance for light rain and/or snow Tuesday night,
mainly across eastern areas. Temperatures will be at or above
freezing at the coast Tuesday night and likely rising with a
southerly flow. Not expecting any snow accumulation outside of a
dusting. Southerly winds Tuesday night will be gusty along the
coast (20-25 mph).

A more robust low pressure system tracking across the Midwest
Tuesday night and across the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday
will send warm advection precipitation into the area. Locations
north and west of the NYC will likely start off as snow or a
rain/snow mix, especially up into Orange and Putnam counties in
NY and western Passaic in NJ. However, with the more amplified
system, enough warm air is likely to advect into the interior
with a changeover to all rain likely in the afternoon. Liquid
equivalent amounts at this time are only expected to be up to an
tenth of an inch or so, possibly bit more across the interior.
With highs getting into the 40s, any accumulation at this time
looks to be minor. Low pressure passes to the north Wednesday
night, sending a cold front across the area. Conditions will dry
out with lows returning to normal levels. In addition, SW winds
on Wednesday will gusts up to 30 mph (highest at the coast),
before becoming westerly and diminishing some overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NBM was followed.

Key Points:

* Temperatures below normal and trending downward through the
  weekend.

* Another clipper low drags a cold front through the area Friday
  night with a chance of snow, possibly mixed with rain at the
  coast. This does not look like a significant winter weather
  event at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build in from the west this afternoon and settle
over the terminals tonight.

VFR prevails.

N to NNW winds with gusts up to around 25 kt. Can not rule out a few
occasional gusts to near 30 kt. N winds begin to diminish this
afternoon, with gusts ending towards 20-21z as high pressure builds
in from the west. Winds fall below 10kt this evening and become
light and variable early Tuesday morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An occasional gust to 30 kt can not be ruled through early afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday afternoon: VFR. SW gusts 15-20 kt late day/evening.

Wednesday: MVFR or lower possible with a chance of rain/snow across
interior Lower Hudson Valley early. Then a chance of rain during the
afternoon and into the evening. S-SW 10-15g25-30 kt possible.

Thursday: VFR. W gusts 20-25 kt.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in any rain or snow showers late
in the day or at night. W gusts around 20 kt.

Saturday: Brief MVFR possible east early, otherwise VFR. W gusts 20-
25kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Gusty NNW winds are bringing Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
conditions to all waters through the early afternoon, before
diminishing later this afternoon as winds lighten. Sub SCA
conditions are expected on the non ocean waters by early to mid
afternoon and the ocean by early evening. High pressure builds
across the waters tonight into Tuesday morning.

A series of clipper systems will then impact the waters Tuesday
night through Thursday with gales possible on the ocean waters
Wednesday into Wednesday night and SCA elsewhere. There could
even be a short period of gales on the ocean Tuesday evening.
Friday should then feature sub advisory conditions on all
waters, but there is still a chance of 25kt gusts on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ331-
     332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DR/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC/DW
HYDROLOGY...DW