897
FXUS61 KOKX 110831
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
331 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The area will remain in between low pressure to the north and high
pressure to the south through tonight, with a weak frontal system
expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday. High pressure
builds in Thursday into Saturday, and moves offshore Saturday night.
A frontal system approaches late Saturday night into Sunday and
passes through the region Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The anomalously deep closed upper low and longwave trough swing
through the area today. At the surface, the area will be sandwiched
between deepening low pressure over eastern Canada and broad high
pressure to the south.

Main story today is the cold and windy conditions. The tight
pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface features will
result in sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph. Model soundings show deep
mixing and even if this isn`t realized, even shallow mixing will tap
into some stronger winds. Confidence was high enough to go above NBM
90th percentile and blend in some model 900mb winds to get peak
forecast gusts mainly between 35 and 40 mph. Some isolated gusts may
be even higher. As for temperatures, went slightly lower than the
NBM given how anomalous the air mass is and how low NBM sky
cover was. High temperatures likely don`t make it out of the
lower 40s for most.

As mentioned before, NBM looked too low with sky cover given this
set up with a cold pool and cyclonic flow overhead. Widespread
cu development is expected. Additionally, CAMs continue to show
some showers and lake streamers moving near or through the
area. Given the cold boundary layer, if showers do occur it will
likely fall as snow for many, with maybe more of a rain/snow
mix for Long Island. Accumulations are not expected, but across
the far northern interior a dusting can`t be ruled on on grassy
surfaces.

Cold temperatures expected again tonight, just a few degrees warmer
than last night. With the growing season ending for many locations
today, no frost/freeze headlines are in effect for tonight. Where
the growing season is still ongoing (NYC and southern Nassau) winds
will likely hold off widespread frost development.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A relatively quiet short term period is expected with a
persistent westerly flow. A weak frontal system moves through
Wednesday into Thursday, but at this time does not look to
result in any precipitation for the area. Kept forecast dry, but
some isolated showers can not be completely ruled out.

Temperatures warm up a bit, but still remain below normal for
mid November. Highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key points:

* Dry conditions through Saturday as high pressure builds into
  the region.

* A frontal system approaches late Saturday and moves across the
  region Monday with chances for light light rain.

* Temperatures slightly below seasonal normals much of the
  time, and around 5 to 8 degrees below normal Friday night
  through Saturday night.

* Brisk westerly flow continues through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure lifts north and east away from the region, with
high pressure building in from the southwest through tonight.

Mainly VFR. The only exception may be with isolated snow
showers in the afternoon briefly leading to MVFR conditions for
terminals NW of NYC. Isolated flurries/snow showers also
possible elsewhere, but should remain VFR in this activity.

WNW-NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt continue early this
morning. Gusts could drop off or become occasional for outlying
terminals before 12z. WNW winds increase after 12z to 15-25 kt
sustained with gusts 30-35 kt. Peak gusts to around 40 kt
possible, especially in the afternoon. Gusts continue overnight
into Wed AM, though speeds lower slightly and flow backs WSW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Gusts may briefly become occasional or end before 12z.

Peak gusts around 40 kt possible, especially this afternoon.

Isolated snow showers/flurries possible this afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR. W winds G25kt.

Wednesday: VFR. WSW winds G20-25kt.

Thursday_Friday: VFR. WNW-NW winds G15-25kt.

Saturday: VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A Gale Warning is in effect for all waters starting at 6 AM this
morning. Gusts peak this afternoon around 40 kt and seas peak this
evening at 10 to 12 feet. Additionally waves on the central and
eastern LI sound will likely reach 5 to 7 feet.

Conditions gradually decrease tonight and the Gale Warning may be
able to come down earlier than currently forecast. However, Small
Craft Advisory conditions could continue on the ocean waters for
several days. Sub advisory conditions are then expected across the
forecast waters Friday through Saturday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for CTZ009>012.
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ071>075-
     078>081-176>179.
NJ...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NJZ006-104-106-
     108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...MET/JT
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT