112
FXUS66 KOTX 030540
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
940 PM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix Thursday evening into Friday may result in a slick
  commutes.

- Warming temperatures and a transition of snow to rain late
  this week with breezy winds.

- Moderate impacts from snow expected on the mountain passes
  late week into the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Quiet weather through the evening into early Wednesday. Weather
trends unsettled beginning Thursday. Temperatures may be cold
enough Thursday night into Friday to support a lowland wintry
mix. By Friday, temperatures will modify and warm above normal
with unsettled weather continuing through the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday night through Wednesday: An amplified upper-level ridge
offshore is promoting northwest flow and drying aloft across the
Inland Northwest this evening. While this has eroded stratus across
the basin today, the loss of diurnal heating will favor rapid
redevelopment of low clouds and fog. Guidance is in strong agreement
that coverage will expand overnight across the Columbia Basin and
the sheltered northern valleys. With temperatures below
freezing, residual boundary-layer moisture will contribute to
slick untreated surfaces and pockets of freezing fog.

By Wednesday, a weak impulse embedded in the northwest flow will
brush the region. This brings a slight chance (20-30%) of light snow
showers, mainly over the Idaho Panhandle and far northeast
Washington.

Thursday through Monday: Thursday marks the start of a more active
pattern as a series of systems track through the Pacific Northwest
into early next week. Northwest flow persists with an amplified
ridge over the northeast Pacific. Precipitation chances increase
Thursday morning as embedded impulses ride over the ridge. Assisted
by a subtropical moisture plume, widespread light lowland snow and
mountain snow are possible Thursday night into early Friday. Current
NBM guidance gives the northeast Washington valleys, north Idaho
valleys, and the Spokane/CdA metros around a 30% chance of 1 inch of
snow by Friday morning. Lookout Pass carries a 20% chance of
reaching 8 inches.

The largest uncertainty remains snow levels. Models may be eroding
the shallow cold air too aggressively. If cold air lingers in the
valleys longer than expected, snow amounts Thursday night into early
Friday morning could overperform before transitioning to rain.

On Friday, the offshore ridge flattens as the next system
approaches. There is moderate confidence (around 60% chance) in
a 150+ kt northwest-oriented upper-level jet streak nosing into
the Pacific Northwest early Friday as a surface low moves into
the southeast Alaska Panhandle/British Columbia. Pattern
recognition supports the potential for strong winds along the
Cascade Crest and east slopes.

Confidence in stronger winds surfacing to the Cascade valleys
remains low with the NBM giving places such as Wenatchee and the
Waterville Plateau a 30% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph Friday or
Saturday. Confidence is higher (70-80%) for gusts above 45 mph
along the central Washington Cascade ridge tops. Snow levels
rise Friday with the precipitation pattern transitioning to
high- elevation snow and lowland rain.

This weekend into early next week, progressive zonal flow will bring
systems across the Pacific Northwest, maintaining unsettled, wetter,
and warmer conditions. Beyond the weekend, ensembles indicate the
potential for a stronger system early next week, with a broad 1525%
chance of winds exceeding 45 mph by Tuesday or Wednesday. This will
continue to be monitored. /vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: While models initially began this TAF period with
IFR/LIFR conditions for many TAF sites, all sites but KEAT/KPUW
are at VFR/MVFR currently. This is due to stratus that has moved
in, which may make fog formation difficult. Ceilings and
visibilities are still projected to drop within a few hours, but
may not get as low as some models, particularly the NBM, are
thinking. KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS/KMWH all have roughly a 20 percent
chance of IFR conditions throughout the TAF period. For KGEG,
model guidance is particularly pessimistic about ceilings, with
a 60% chance of LIFR conditions through around 15Z. KPUW/KLWS
have conditions improving by the end of the TAF period, while
all other sites will end the TAF period at either IFR or LIFR.
Probabilities for precipitation lie at 30 percent and below for
all locations.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in precipitation chances being low throughout
the forecast period. High chances in continued degraded ceilings
for KEAT/KPUW. Moderate confidence in fog formation elsewhere
due to a stratus deck that has moved in. /AS

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        24  36  28  34  30  38 /   0  10  20  40  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  27  38  29  35  30  39 /   0  20  40  60  60  90
Pullman        28  38  26  34  32  42 /  10  10  20  60  70  90
Lewiston       33  42  30  39  36  48 /  10   0  10  40  60  80
Colville       19  37  23  36  24  36 /   0  20  20  30  50  80
Sandpoint      25  35  27  34  28  37 /  10  40  60  70  60  90
Kellogg        29  38  31  36  32  40 /  10  30  60  80  70  90
Moses Lake     24  38  27  36  29  40 /   0  10   0  20  30  50
Wenatchee      30  41  30  39  33  45 /   0  10  10  20  40  70
Omak           27  39  28  37  29  38 /   0  10   0  20  30  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$