655
FXUS66 KOTX 190651
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1051 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier overall this week with slightly above normal
  temperatures.

- Active weather returns by the end of the weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A quieter weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week.
Temperatures will be cooler, but still be above normal through
the week. A more active pattern is expected to develop by the
end of the weekend into early next week with valley rain,
mountain snow and breezy winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday night through Wednesday: The Inland Northwest is under
the influence of a weak upper-level trough this afternoon. This
has primarily resulted in an increase in extensive clouds, but
as the cold pool associated with the upper-level trough moves
east of the Cascades, there is a 10-15% chance for light rain
across the lowlands and a 20-30% chance for light snow in the
mountains. Limited moisture and dynamics will keep totals
generally less than a couple hundredths.

On Wednesday, models are in good agreement for a transient
upper- level ridge to move into the Inland Northwest as upper-
level trough associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska
approaches the western US. Mid level drying and subsidence
associated with the ridge will decrease cloud cover Wednesday
morning. The timing of the drier air and clearing of mid and
high level clouds should be late enough in the morning to
inhibit fog development.

Wednesday afternoon will feature seasonable temperatures in the
40s. Despite the ridging, mixing will be limited, keeping winds
light and preventing significant warming.

Thursday through Saturday: Models are in general agreement on
the trough to split as it digs offshore, becoming a closed low
as it moves into northern California on Thursday. This leaves
the Inland Northwest under zonal flow aloft and subtle ridging.
Thursday looks largely dry, though depending on the track of the
low, southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle have a 15%
chance of light rain.

By Friday, a zonal jet will direct a plume of moisture into the
Pacific Northwest. However, forecast confidence regarding the
precise orientation of the moisture axis and strongest winds aloft
remains tied to the evolution of the California low. Without a
defined system over the Inland Northwest, precipitation will be
driven almost exclusively by orographic ascent with
precipitation chances confined to the mountains.

Saturday Night through Monday: Global ensembles highlight a
pattern shift late weekend as an upper-level trough and
associated surface cold front approach the Pacific Northwest.
This system presents the highest impact potential of the
forecast period. Anticipate a period of lowland precipitation,
moderate to heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds. While there is
high confidence in a pattern change, uncertainty exists
regarding the timing of the frontal passage and the depth of the
colder air mass. We will continue to monitor this as the
forecast evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A weak mid level trough moving through the northwest
continues to bring cloud cover of varying levels, though
primarily VFR conditions are being observed. The cloud cover
should help limit reductions overnight and in the early morning
due to fog, but the HREF is showing a 10-15% chance for fog
development by early Wednesday morning from the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene down to KPUW and in some of the sheltered northeastern
valleys.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low confidence for reduced visibility due to fog development for
KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:

Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,

please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        31  45  31  45  30  45 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  33  46  32  45  33  44 /  10   0   0  10  10  10
Pullman        29  46  33  45  30  46 /  10   0   0  20  10   0
Lewiston       35  49  36  50  35  50 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Colville       29  46  27  47  28  42 /  20   0   0  10  10  10
Sandpoint      33  45  31  45  33  42 /  40  10   0  20  30  30
Kellogg        33  47  35  48  36  44 /  20  10   0  20  30  30
Moses Lake     28  48  31  47  28  45 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      33  47  35  49  34  48 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           32  46  33  47  33  44 /  10   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$