651
FXUS66 KOTX 110600
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and snow melt will lead to continued low lying flooding
  in Chelan county into Thursday along with mud and rockslides
  in steep terrain

- Small stream flooding for Bonner, Shoshone, Kootenai, and
  Benewah counties expected into Thursday due to rain and snow
  melt.

- Strong winds will impact the Cascades, eastern Washington and
  portions of north ID this evening and tonight. Winds gusting
  around 45 to 55 mph, except higher gusts in the Cascade
  mountains.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Heavy mountain rain, high mountain snow, and gusty winds will
continue through Wednesday night. Winds and rain will taper
through the day Thursday. Friday and Saturday will bring a brief
break. A weak system moves in Sunday bringing light rain the
mountains. Confidence is increasing for another atmospheric
river early next week but with lower snow levels.

&&

.UPDATE...
Strong downslope winds off the Cascades earlier prompted a High
Wind Warning for western and central Chelan county through 4 AM
Thursday. An upper jet over southern BC is putting the Cascades
on the south and stable side of the jet with enhanced downslope winds
in the lee of the Cascades. A wind advisory has also been
expanded to include the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau.
JW

.DISCUSSION...
     STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER BRINGING FLOODING, ROCK/MUD
SLIDES, AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

Today through Friday: Round 2 of the Pacific northwest strong
atmospheric river is well underway this afternoon.

* Rain: The Cascades have put up some impressive precipitation
  totals since midnight (Viewpoint Raws: Over 3", Dry Creek
  Raws: Over 2", Stehekin Raws: Over 2"). An additional 1 to 4
  inches of rain is expected for locations west of
  Leavenworth/Mazama to the crest of the Cascades through
  tomorrow evening. In North Idaho, an additional 1-2" of rain
  is forecasted through tomorrow afternoon. Luckily strong
  shadowing is currently keeping locations east of Leavenworth
  dry and that will continue to be the case. The flood watch in
  Chelan County was upgraded to a flood warning and is in effect
  through Friday morning. The flood watch for
  Kootenai/Benewah/Shoshone Counties remain in effect until
  Friday morning to Friday evening as well. Lighter showery
  activity will continue through Thursday night to Friday night
  as the 150-200% of normal PWAT plume migrates north into
  Canada. This will give time for the river flows to decrease.

* Wind: Wind advisories and high wind warnings remain in effect
  until 7 AM tomorrow. Forecast looks on track still for
  sustained southwest winds around 25-35 mph gusting up to 45-55
  mph for the Upper Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane area.
  There is a 10% chance for isolated pockets of gusts greater
  than 60 mph from highway 395 at the Adams/Franklin County
  line, to along I-90 from Ritzville to the West Plains, the
  Palouse, and wind prone locations of US-95 from Worley to Cda.
  Sustained southwest 35-45 mph winds gusting up to 65 mph
  remains for locations between Clarkston and Dayton. With
  unfrozen and wet soils, wind impacts may be higher than usual.
  A 16-18 mb gradient from Portland to Cut Bank MT will stay
  established through much of the night keeping wind gusts above
  40 in the advisory area. The upper ridges of southwest Chelan
  County will continue to gust around 60 to 100 mph through
  this evening. Mission Ridge Summit NWAC sensor gusted to 107
  mph at the 1PM observation. Winds will slowly decrease
  overnight into Thursday as the surface low in the lee of the
  MT rockies moves into eastern MT.

Saturday through Wednesday: Mild conditions with highs in the 40s
and 50s will continue through this weekend into mid next week.
Saturday look showery in the mountains as the southern periphery of
the next atmospheric river is touching the Canadian border. The cold
front with this system will bring light rain to the Cascades up to
0.5" from Saturday night to Sunday night. Ensembles are hinting at
another potent atmospheric river early to mid next week. Snow levels
look lower for this event perhaps as low as 3000 feet near the
Canadian border. It is too early to discuss expected precipitation
amounts but there is a 20-50% chance of 2+" of precipitation in the
Idaho Panhandle mountains and an 80% chance of 2+" of precipitation
at the Cascade crest from 4 AM Monday to 4 AM Thursday. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Strong and gusty west to southwest will continue
tonight and then gradually decrease into Thursday. The winds
have helped dry out the boundary layer with VFR conditions
tonight for all TAF sites. On Thursday as the downslope flow
begins to decrease and a band of moisture sags south, light rain
is expected to develop at KPUW/KLWS which will moisten the
boundary layer with MVFR conditions developing at KPUW.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is
high for VFR conditions for all TAF sites tonight, except KCOE
with moderate confidence. HREF shows greater than a 80% chance
of MVFR conditions developing at KPUW between 15-18z Thursday,
and even a 70% chance of IFR conditions. Yet with still breezy
boundary layer winds the forecast leans towards MVFR conditions.
JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The ongoing atmospheric river event will continue to drive heavy
precipitation into the high terrain through Thursday. While model
guidance indicates a gradual weakening of moisture transport (IVT)
over the next 24 hours, the cumulative impacts of prolonged rainfall
remain the primary concern. Observed 72-hour precipitation totals as
of 2:30 PM range from 4 to 8 inches along the Cascades and east
slopes, with 2 to 5.5 inches recorded across the Idaho Panhandle.
Through early Friday morning, additional QPF of 1 to 3 inches is
forecast for the Cascade crest extending into central Chelan and
Okanogan counties, while the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle
can expect an additional 0.50 to 2 inches.

The combination of heavy rainfall, mid-elevation snowmelt, and
saturated antecedent soil conditions continue to bring heightened
concerns for rock and mudslides. Areas of steep terrain and recent
burn scars in both the Cascades and central Idaho Panhandle are
particularly susceptible to rock and mudslides. Reports of rock and
mud on roadways have already been received in these throughout
Chelan County.

River Forecasts

Central Washington: The Wenatchee and Stehekin Rivers are projected
to crest within flood stage between this evening (Wednesday) and
early Thursday morning. Beyond the mainstem river forecast points,
rapid rises are occurring on smaller rivers and creeks, specifically
Icicle Creek near Leavenworth and Peshastin Creek.

Idaho Panhandle: The Coeur dAlene River at Cataldo is forecast to
reach Minor Flood Stage by Thursday afternoon. Smaller creeks and
streams across the region will remain elevated with high flows.

For the latest hydrographs and specific river stage forecasts,
please refer to water.noaa.gov/wfo/otx.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        48  53  41  50  40  52 /  20  20  30  20  10  10
Coeur d`Alene  48  51  41  49  41  51 /  70  60  50  40  30  10
Pullman        48  52  45  52  41  52 /  10  60  50  20  20  10
Lewiston       53  58  49  59  43  55 /  10  20  40  10  10   0
Colville       39  48  31  43  32  44 /  30  10  10  30  20  10
Sandpoint      44  49  37  44  39  47 /  90  80  40  60  50  30
Kellogg        46  49  42  49  41  52 /  90  90  70  70  40  20
Moses Lake     48  56  39  54  37  51 /  10  10  10   0  10   0
Wenatchee      46  52  42  54  40  52 /  30  10  20  10  10   0
Omak           40  48  34  44  35  44 /  10  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Thursday for Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.

     High Wind Warning until 7 AM PST Thursday for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties.

     Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area.

     High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for Central Chelan
     County-Western Chelan County.

ID...Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area-
     Idaho Palouse.

&&

$$