675
FXUS66 KOTX 240917
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
117 AM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow for mountain passes into Monday morning.

- Gusty winds with a cold front passage continuing through
  Monday.

- High degree of uncertainty for valley snow potential Tuesday
  night into Wednesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. Light
  to Moderate snow on the mountain passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system moving through the region will bring
continued chances for mountain snow and lowland rain through
Monday morning. Gusty winds will also persist into Monday. Snow
will impact the mountain passes again Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The midweek systems will bring the potential for
light snow in the lowlands and moderate snow over the mountains
but carries high uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: A cold front exits the area early today, with
an upper trough on its heels before brief high pressure starts in
later this afternoon into tonight. The steadier precipitation
chances linger over the east third of WA and ID will decrease
through the early to mid-morning. This may fall as a light
rain/snow mix in some of the lowlands but the threat of
precipitation will be ending before much of a risk develops. Late
this morning into afternoon some linger rain/snow shower threat
will linger around the mountains. Some snow showers will also
possible through the day near the Cascade crest in the onshore
flow. Otherwise today should see some sunshine. By this evening
the overall threat of precipitation will be done. Precipitation
amounts overall will be light. Snow levels will be around 1.5 to
2.5kft this morning, moderating to around 2-2.5kft this afternoon,
before settling back toward 0.5 to 1.5kft overnight. Highs are
forecast to be in the 40s today and lows in the 20s tonight. Winds
will be gusty today with the passing vigorous cold front, most
notably this morning to early afternoon before decreasing. Gusts
of 15-3o mph will be possible, with locally higher gusts near
35-40 mph possible near the Blue Mountains in the the Palouse.

Tuesday through Thursday: This will be an active period with some
light to moderate mountain snow and the first real potential for
lowland snow as a couple shortwave systems move on the area. Thus
impacts to holiday travel are possible from snow, especially in
the mountains where snow is likely. As for the lowlands the
forecast continue to support a chance for snow changing to rain
for some of the area and some areas will just see rain. Precise
timing of transition from snow to rain and where the heavier
precipitation amounts will lay will impact just how much snow may
fall in the lowlands.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday a warm front begins to lift into
the area, stalled briefly overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday
as a first shortwave passes by, before a stronger Pacific trough
advances toward the coast Wednesday night into Thursday AM and
sends the warm front north possibly as far north as the Canadian
border. Precipitation chances increasing over the Cascades and
central WA Tuesday late morning through afternoon, becoming likely
over a large portion of the area Tuesday night. The warm front
halting its northern push this period means the potential for the
higher precipitation amounts remains over the southern third of
the CWA and areas over the central and northern CWA may see much
less, if any actual significant precipitation amounts. Models do
show the higher precipitation potential linger around the southern
CWA Wednesday, before starting to expand back north Wednesday
evening into Thursday morning. Modest chances continue through the
day Thursday over the Cascades and eastern third of WA and ID,
while they abate in the lee of the Cascades.

Models are still coming together on the precipitation-types will
evolve, as they show some disagreement on how quickly the milder
air gets. Some are more generous with pushing some milder air
north Tuesday night/Wednesday AM and others hold it south. With
the east-northeast flow in that time frame, the more likely
scenario right now would hold that warm air back until the
stronger Pacific trough shifts it north. So rain/snow or all rain
is more likely over the southern quarter to third of the CWA, with
snow further north. Overall the mountains will continue to see
the best chances for more moderate snow amounts, starting in the
Cascades Tuesday afternoon and expanding east for Tuesday night,
especially overnight, before rates start to decline through the
day Wednesday before the snow potential picks up again Thursday.
The lowlands will have the best potential for snow Tuesday
overnight into early Wednesday morning.

Mountain pass chances of 6+" 4 PM TUE - 4 PM WED:

Stevens: 50%
Washington: 30%
Snoqualmie: 25%
Lookout: 15%

As for the lowlands, the NBM shows about a 20-30% chance of
measurable snow in places like the Spokane area, the Palouse and
northern counties. However the LREF (Long-Range Ensemble) has
about a 30 to 70% chance in each 6 hour period. So uncertainty
remains. Overall it may not be a lot but impacts are still
possible for Tuesday night/Wednesday and perhaps lingering through
Thursday for some of the northern zones.

Friday through Sunday: Models continue to show the potential for
unsettled conditions this period, with more a northwesterly flow
and and potential for well below normal temperatures. There is
good agreement in the clusters of a very strong ridge forming in
the Gulf of Alaska, which would favor much cooler air than what we
have recently seen to filter into the region from the north.
However models continue to show a fairly large spread in actual
temperatures. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A cold front will continue to push across the area
this evening into early Monday, with areas of rain potentially
mixing with some snow overnight/early Monday AM but the
precipitation is expected to decrease after 12-15Z. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions tonight, except near LWS where primarily VFR
conditions are expected. Other sites are expected to see
improvement heading through the morning to midday, with all
sites improving to VFR. Winds will also increase late tonight
into Monday, with gusts near 15-30kts possible before decreasing
in the late afternoon to evening Monday.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for IFR cigs to develop in eastern WA and north Idaho this
evening and last until around 13z. Possible more rapid
improvement at EAT/MWH tonight, with only moderate confidence in
precise timing. High confidence is improvement to VFR conditions
through Monday, moderate confidence on timing.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        43  27  39  32  39  34 /  30   0   0  60  60  60
Coeur d`Alene  43  27  39  32  39  35 /  60   0  10  60  70  70
Pullman        41  26  39  32  39  35 /  50   0  10  60  80  70
Lewiston       48  29  44  37  44  40 /  40   0   0  60  60  70
Colville       45  21  38  25  40  28 /  40   0  10  70  50  50
Sandpoint      41  25  38  29  38  31 /  70  10  20  70  80  70
Kellogg        41  27  39  33  39  37 /  90  10  10  70  90  80
Moses Lake     48  26  40  31  41  33 /   0   0  10  60  50  60
Wenatchee      46  30  38  33  40  35 /   0   0  20  70  50  70
Omak           45  27  38  31  40  33 /  10   0  10  60  30  50

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$