734
FXUS66 KOTX 171142
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
342 AM PST Mon Nov 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues this week.

- A moderate snow potential around the Cascade passes next
  weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Next round of precipitation continues into Monday night. Mild
temperatures will keep snow levels high with primarily light
rain expected. Temperatures cooling closer to normal for the
latter half of next week. A weak weather system on Thursday
brings the potential for light precipitation and light snow in
the mountains. Another wet weekend is on tap.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday night: A stretching and splitting upper
trough moves onshore early today, with deeper low splitting
toward California while the weaker but still somewhat robust
northern low track into the Cascades late this afternoon into
tonight. That feature migrates toward north Idaho by late
morning Tuesday, while a secondary open wave upper trough moves
comes on its heels Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This
will bring periodic waves of precipitation to the area. Some of
the steadier periods of precipitation will be found early this
morning, then again develop late this afternoon near the
Cascades and tracking eastward later this evening into Tuesday
morning with the robust low.

Initially this will take the form of rain for most, with snow
levels sitting between 6500-7500 feet through late afternoon.
The snow levels then start to drop this evening into the
overnight, dropping to 3500-4500 in the Cascades and 5000-7000
feet further east. Eventually they drop to 3000-4000 feet across
the region late Tuesday evening into the overnight. This means
some snow accumulation potential starting near the Cascades
passes like Stevens and Washington late this evening into
Tuesday. Right now models show around 1-3 inches of snow tonight
through Tuesday around these passes, with the higher
accumulation potential toward the Washington Pass and northward.
The other passes could see some light snow Tuesday into Tuesday
night, with only accumulations at less than 1 inch. Lowlands
could see some snow mixed in late Tuesday evening into the
overnight, though by then a ridge will be starting to build in
from the west and the primary precipitation potential be
shifting into the Idaho Panhandle.

A little bit of breeziness is possible Tuesday afternoon,
mainly gusts of 10-15 mph. Temperatures will be upper 40s to low
50s, with more int eh way of 40s by Tuesday. Lows are forecast
to be in the mid-30s to lower 40s tonight and upper 20s to
mid-30s Tuesday night. Patchy fog is also in the forecast today
and tonight into Tuesday morning, the the EMC HREF pointing to
the Upper Columbia Basin to the Waterville Plateau, as well as
the Palouse into the L-C Valley having some of the better
chance both mornings.

Wednesday to Sunday: The period starts off drier, but the
wetter system makes it way toward the area next weekend. Between
Wednesday and Thursday the area stays in a split flow.
Shortwave ridging controls Wednesday, then another splitting
trough pushes toward into the West heading into Thursday. That
splitting system however tends to take most of the energy south
and very little left further north, per at least 2/3rd of the
guidance. Some hold a more consolidated trough together to move
inland Thursday with limited precipitation chances. Models have
not been entirely consistent over the past few days so the
forecast does show some increasing precipitation chance around
Thursday. Patchy fog will be in the forecast each day, but the
better chances will be in the more sheltered valleys and
outlying areas.

Heading into the end of the week the flow turns more resolutely
zonal and a stronger jet noses its way into the area along the
US/Canadian border and tapping a potential atmospheric river.
The stout westerly flow in this set-up and the impulses riding
along it will tend to favor the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle
mountains with the higher precipitation potential by this time
frame, with Saturday to Sunday night being the periods currently
having the best precipitation potential. Snow levels are
forecast to be between 4000-5000 feet Friday into Saturday, then
drop 3000-5000 feet Sunday and then 2500-4500 feet Sunday night
into Monday morning. The larger thing that sticks out with all
of this is the potential for some moderate to heavy snow to be
concerned with this time frame near the Cascades crest,
including Stevens and Washington Pass. It is many days out so
details will likely be find-tuned. Lighter amounts are forecast
right snow at the other passes. Precipitation elsewhere, largely
as rain and maybe a rain/snow mix at night, are forecast to be
comparatively lighter due to the strong westerly flow. We will
have to keep an eye on the potential from breezy to gusty winds
depending on how the jet sets up, though right now models are
not showing much more than 1020 mph gusts. Highs will largely
be in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s and 30s.

8-14 day period: An early sneak-peak at what models are
trending to toward the Thanksgiving holiday: colder, and cold
enough that if precipitation falls there is a better chance of
snow in the lowlands. The climate prediction center shows a
better than chance (50-60%) of below normal temperatures for the
8-14 day (Nov 24 to 30). Models are not currently showing a lot
to show confidence in much snow in the lowlands, but the
potential is increasingly showing up in the longer range models.
/Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: One area of steady light rain shifting into the ID
Panhandle this morning but next system right on it`s heels that
will keep showery weather persisting into tonight. An abundance
of boundary layer moisture and light winds will promote
widespread stratus with IFR/MVFR conditions across the region
through tonight. There are a few exceptions one being over SE
Washington and Lewiston area where southeast boundary layer
winds this afternoon may allow conditions to become VFR. Second
exception is around KEAT/KMWH after 6z Tue as a passing system
brings an increase in westerly downslope winds off the Cascades
which is expected to help break up the stratus.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence of IFR/MVFR conditions for most of the region
today. Moderate confidence that downslope boundary layer winds
brings improvement this afternoon to KPUW/KLWS and to KEAT/KMWH
after 06z Tue. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  40  46  31  45  31 /  50  60  50  10   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  51  42  47  33  44  32 /  80  70  70  30  10  10
Pullman        53  38  45  29  46  32 /  60  50  50  20  10  10
Lewiston       56  45  50  35  49  37 /  50  30  30  20   0  10
Colville       51  37  49  29  45  27 /  50  80  80  30  10  10
Sandpoint      49  40  47  32  44  31 /  90  80  90  60  20  10
Kellogg        50  42  47  34  46  34 /  90  70  80  50  20  10
Moses Lake     53  36  49  28  47  32 /  30  40  10   0   0  10
Wenatchee      54  37  49  34  46  36 /  40  60  10  10   0  20
Omak           53  40  49  32  45  34 /  20  70  40  10   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$