898
FXUS66 KOTX 042241
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
241 PM PST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix Thursday into Friday may result in a slick commute.
  20-40% of 1" of snow in the northeast valleys.

- Periods of moderate to heavy mountain snow in the mountain
  passes through Saturday.

- Increased potential for rock slides next week with a mild and
  wet weather pattern.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will trend much more unsettled Thursday through the
weekend. Temperatures look to be cold enough tonight into
Friday to support a lowland wintry mix. By Friday, temperatures
will modify and warm above normal with unsettled weather
continuing through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...MIXED VALLEY PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS...

Thursday and through Friday: The first wave of precipitation has
moved through and the bulk of the wintry precip at this point is
south of I-90 early this afternoon. Precipitation will continue to
decrease from north to south this evening leading to a brief break
before the next wave of precipitation moves in Friday morning. There
is a minor freezing rain threat primarily on the Waterville Plateau
again early Friday morning before surface temperatures warm above
freezing. Have held off on any additional winter weather advisories
for now given uncertainty for surface temperatures. Expecting mostly
rain with this system except the cooler northeast valleys where up
to an inch of snow will fall Friday morning.

Friday afternoon through Saturday: There will be a cold front
passage Friday evening associated with the occluded surface low
hanging back in SW BC. Snow levels will drop at the mountain passes
leading to a changeover to snow. Stevens Pass will see around 5-10"
of wet heavy snow Friday night through Saturday evening. Lookout
Pass will receive another 4-8" inches of snow as well. Strong winds
will develop in the wake of this frontal passage around 45-60 kt in
the 2-6 kft layer leading to strong westerly winds gusting up to 55
mph. in the Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau, and the Alpowa
summit area Friday night into Saturday. Peaks around 3000-6000` in
the east slopes of the Cascades have potential to gust around 55-70
mph.

Sunday through Thursday: Snow levels rise above 4000 feet minimizing
wintry impacts in the lowlands. The mountain passes are not
completely out of the woods for winter impacts just yet, especially
Stevens Pass. An active storm track will favor rounds repeated
subtropical moisture into the region next week. Monday and Wednesday
next week look particularly interesting as models suggest PWATs
anomalies could rise above a staggering 300% of normal. This pattern
would bring a lot of rain to the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle
with strong westerly flow. How much rain? Models suggest around 5-
10" in the Cascades and around 2-6" for the Idaho Panhandle. So
concerns will shift to mud and rock slides in steep terrain due to
rain and snow melt, and rises on rivers and small streams. At this
time no flooding is forecast in eastern WA and north ID. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs: Widespread IFR and MVFR stratus will impact aviation
over Central and Northeast Washington and the ID Panhandle
P-type will be messy across the region with a wintry mix. Precipitation
is expected to largely sag southward into SE WA and NC Idaho
where it will persist overnight. There is a 60% chance for KPUW
to switch to rain around 00-01z. IFR/LIFR conditions expected
to settle back into NE WA and N ID following the precipitation
and overnight for KPUW/KLWS as winds shift to the west and lower
levels continue to saturate. Lower confidence for evolution of
low clouds around KEAT overnight.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence of widespread IFR and MVFR conditions across the
region into Friday morning.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        32  39  35  44  36  44 /  50  90  50  30  30  80
Coeur d`Alene  32  39  35  42  35  43 /  60 100  80  70  50  90
Pullman        33  44  38  43  38  44 /  90 100  80  70  60  90
Lewiston       37  50  41  51  41  49 /  90 100  80  50  40  70
Colville       31  37  33  41  32  39 /  20 100  50  40  30  90
Sandpoint      30  37  33  39  35  41 /  50 100 100  90  70 100
Kellogg        33  40  35  40  37  41 /  90 100 100 100  80 100
Moses Lake     35  42  36  51  36  48 /  20  70  10  10  10  60
Wenatchee      35  46  38  50  37  46 /  30  80  50  30  30  70
Omak           33  39  34  42  33  40 /  10  80  40  20  10  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday
     for Western Chelan County.
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$