341
FXUS66 KOTX 071220
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
420 AM PST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread precipitation on Sunday. Light snow for the
  northern valleys and mountains with rain elsewhere.

- Strong west to southwest winds Monday evening into early
  Tuesday morning.

- Increased potential for rises along small creeks and streams
  and rock slides next week due to a warm and wet weather
  pattern.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern will impact the area through the week.
A series of warm and wet systems will move through. This will
result in warmer than normal temperatures, mountain snow, and
mid to low elevation rain. Widespread strong wind gusts are
expected Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight: After a very brief break in precipitation, an
active weather pattern is setting up and will move in tomorrow. A
frontal passage will result in lowland rain and mountain snow as
temperatures moderate and warm, moist air moves into the area. PWATs
will rise from 90-100% of normal to 150-200% of normal by tomorrow
afternoon. Additionally, temperatures will be 5-6 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Apart from some cold air remaining
over the Methow Valley, snow levels will be 3000-4000 feet. Right
now, NBM probabilities for 24-hr rainfall totals show Spokane down
to Pullman having a 35-45% chance of seeing 0.25 inches of rain or
more through tomorrow night. In the Idaho Panhandle, those
probabilities increase to 70% and above. For snowfall, Lookout Pass
has a 49% chance of seeing three or more inches of snow, and Stevens
Pass has a 15% chance. Winds throughout the basin and WA/ID Palouse
will continue gusting to 20-25 mph in the afternoon due to the
surface pressure gradient remaining strong.

Monday through Wednesday: Monday through Wednesday is when a series
of atmospheric rivers impact the forecast area. With warm and moist
air moving in, PWATs will rise to 200-250% of normal on Monday and
Wednesday. Snow levels remain high at 3000-5000 feet, meaning most
mid and low elevation areas will see rain. By early Tuesday morning,
NBM probabilities of 24-hour rainfall give Spokane, CdA, Deer Park,
Sandpoint, and Pullman an 80% chance of 0.25 inches of rain. By
Thursday morning, much of the basin areas have a 50-60% chance and
above of 72-hr rainfall totals near 0.5 inches. Snowfall along
mountain passes will be heavy. Tuesday into Wednesday, 24-hour snow
totals indicate that Lookout and Stevens Passes have a 10-20% of 6
inches of snow. As you move into the northern Cascades, those totals
rise even more. With this heavier snowfall, expect wintry conditions
along mountain passes. Winter headlines are looking more and more
likely, especially for the wetter system moving through on
Wednesday.

With a potent surface low dropping down into Montana Monday night
into Tuesday, the surface pressure gradient will tighten even
further, resulting in strong south to southwest winds. While 20-25
mph wind gusts will be widespread, the basin and Palouse in
particular will see stronger winds. NBM probabilities show a 50-60%
chance of the basin and Palouse areas seeing wind gusts 45 mph or
higher. With high res models such as the HREF showing similar
probabilities, growing confidence in these higher wind gusts
supports potential wind headlines.

Snow levels being so high will result in increased chances of
hydrological impacts occurring alongside wintry travel
conditions and high winds. A Hydrologic Outlook has already been
issued for next week indicating rises on small creeks and
streams due to low elevation snowmelt. Any moderate or high
impact burn scars will continued to be monitored closely for any
potential impacts. Additionally, there will be an increased
risk for mud and rock slides in areas of steep terrain.

The Extreme Forecast Index continues to show very anomalously high
QPF, wind/wind gusts, and temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.
This further supports the increased chances of winter and wind
headlines, alongside hydrological impacts. Additionally, clusters
currently show the ridge remaining over the area and continued
elevated PWATs Thursday through Saturday, indicating that the active
weather will continue. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 and 8-14
Day Outlook indicates increased chances of higher than normal
temperatures and precipitation. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: An incoming system is spreading a cloud shield across
the Inland Northwest. Ceiling height for TAF sites will begin
decreasing to MVFR/IFR through the 19Z with rain chances
increasing. HREF probabilities show those sites having a 40-60
percent chance of dropping to IFR excluding LWS. Basin locations
will see winds increase in the 23-06Z as a weak boundary pushes
in from the south. Drier air behind the boundary will decrease
cloud coverage allowing for conditions to improve to VFR
overnight.


.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate to high confidence in the return of widespread MVFR/IFR
conditions through 19Z. Moderate to high confidence in rain
continuing into next period. Moderate confidence in wind gusts
returning during afternoon. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  39  50  41  46  37 / 100  40 100  90  50  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  38  49  41  46  37 /  90  70 100 100  60  90
Pullman        45  40  50  42  47  38 / 100  60 100 100  80  90
Lewiston       50  43  54  48  53  44 /  90  50 100  90  80  90
Colville       39  31  46  32  45  31 / 100  40 100  80  30  70
Sandpoint      40  36  45  38  44  34 / 100  90 100 100  60  90
Kellogg        41  39  47  41  45  37 / 100  90 100 100  80  90
Moses Lake     48  37  52  41  49  38 /  80  10  70  50  40  70
Wenatchee      46  39  50  41  48  38 /  90  20  80  80  40  80
Omak           41  34  44  35  45  33 /  80  20  80  70  20  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$