255
FXUS66 KOTX 190529
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1029 PM PDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooling temperatures back into the 80s to low 90s this weekend
  with continued breezy winds.

- Thunderstorm chances increase over the mountains Monday and
  Tuesday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler temperatures are expected this weekend and then
showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday will be about 5-10 deg cooler across the area but still
a bit breezy. At this time, we expect to let the Red Flag
Warning expire this evening and then will reevaluate whether an
additional one is needed for a smaller area tomorrow.

Sunday and Monday will see a change in the weather pattern as a
trough deepens overhead thanks to a high amplitude ridge over
the north Pacific. The lowering heights will bring slightly
cooler than normal temperatures to the region and increased
instability. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop
over the northern mountains Sunday afternoon (20-40%) and then
become more widespread Monday (30-60%). In addition, the
steering flow under the trough is very weak so any thunderstorms
that develop will move slowly and have the potential of
producing abundant rain. This is a hazard that we have not
forecast too many times this summer so we`ll need to pay
particular attention to PWAT, instability, and storm motion. If
the thunderstorm potential develops over steep terrain or any
recent large fires, the risk for flash flooding will increase.

We will begin to message this increased confidence in scattered
to numerous thunderstorms, particularly over the mountains,
beginning Monday and in to Tuesday.

Wednesday and beyond...temperatures moderate close to normal
for this time of year in the upper 80s to low 90s. The upper
trough will weaken and shear apart leaving more stable air over
us late in the week. Outside of marginal fire danger with warm
temperatures and typical diurnal breezes, no additional hazards
are expected late next week. /AB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Eastern WA and northern ID will see slight chances for
generally light showers through 09Z. Otherwise, look for VFR
conditions to persist. Winds occasionally breezy overnight, but
another increase in winds with gusts up to 20kts or so is
expected Saturday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
that VFR conditions will continue at all TAF sites. Low
confidence in showers at TAF sites. /KD

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  84  56  82  58  81 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  84  56  82  58  80 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        58  80  50  79  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       70  90  61  88  65  85 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Colville       49  84  48  82  49  78 /  10  10  10  10  10  40
Sandpoint      55  80  51  79  54  77 /  10  10  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        63  79  58  78  61  76 /  10   0   0   0   0  20
Moses Lake     59  89  56  86  59  85 /  10   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      62  87  62  87  65  85 /   0   0   0   0  10  30
Omak           57  89  58  87  60  85 /  10   0   0  10  20  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$