408
FXUS66 KOTX 061509
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
709 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavy mountain snow through Saturday at the
  Cascade crest and the Idaho Panhandle mountains.

- Increased potential for rises along small creeks and streams
  and rock slides next week due to a very wet and warm pattern
  moving through.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active weather pattern will continue to impact the area
and bring winter and wind impacts through Saturday. Sunday into
next week, a series of very wet and warm systems will move
through. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures,
mountain snow, rain, and strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Wednesday: The active weather pattern will continue
well into next week with a series of atmospheric rivers impacting
the forecast area. PWATs will drop to right around 100% of normal
for some of the day Sunday, but this drop will be very brief. Late
Sunday morning, the first surge of warm, moist air will move through
and raise PWATs back to 150-200% of normal. Snow levels will start
out around 4000 feet and increase steadily through the week, which
will result in mainly rain for the lowland areas and heavy snowfall
for the mountains. By early Monday morning, NBM probabilities of 24-
hour rainfall give Spokane, CdA, Deer Park, Sandpoint, and Pullman a
60 percent chance and above of 0.25 inches of rain. The second surge
of moisture will move through Monday night into Tuesday, bringing
PWATs even higher, to 200-250% of normal. A similar increase in
PWATs will occur Wednesday through Thursday as well. While in the
extended period at this point, long-range models are indicating the
series of systems next week to have a significant impact on the
area. The Extreme Forecast Index shows very anomalously high QPF,
wind/wind gusts, and temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. All
clusters show strong lower heights moving into the area with
embedded shortwaves. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day
Outlook indicates increased chances of higher than normal
temperatures and precipitation.

With snow levels being so high, it is looking more and more like
hydrological impacts may occur alongside wintry travel conditions
and high winds. A Hydrologic Outlook has already been issued for
next week indicating rises on small creeks and streams due to low
elevation snowmelt. Any moderate or high impact burn scars will
continued to be monitored closely for any potential impacts.
Additionally, there will be an increased risk for mud and rock
slides in areas of steep terrain. We will be keeping a very, very
close eye on this series of systems next week due to the potential
for multiple weather headlines and impacts. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Shower activity is diminishing as warm, drier air
moves into the region. TAF conditions are improving from low
vis/cig issues. Only TAF sites that currently have any
restrictions are PUW and COE. HREF continues to show periods of
degraded conditions through the period. But confidence is
lowering as models did not have VFR conditions this early.
KPUW/KLWS are currently seeing wind gusts 30-40kts. Ensembles
continue to show increasing low clouds developing late morning
and evening on Saturday. Periods of IFR/MVFR are possible during
these periods.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Low to moderate confidence on the timing and heights of ceilings
through the period. /JDC

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  35  43  38  49  41 /  40  10  90  60  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  35  43  38  49  40 /  70  40 100  80  90 100
Pullman        44  37  44  40  49  44 /  60  30  90  80  90 100
Lewiston       51  40  48  43  54  45 /  50  30  80  70  80  90
Colville       41  28  38  33  46  35 /  50  10 100  60  90  90
Sandpoint      39  34  40  37  44  39 /  90  50 100  90 100 100
Kellogg        39  37  41  40  46  40 / 100  70 100 100 100 100
Moses Lake     50  35  47  38  52  43 /  10  10  80  20  60  60
Wenatchee      49  37  45  39  51  42 /  20  30  90  40  80  80
Omak           43  32  40  34  43  36 /  20  10  80  30  80  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Western
     Chelan County.
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$