458
FXUS66 KOTX 250044
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
443 PM PST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow impacting passes Tuesday into Wednesday.

- High degree of uncertainty for valley snow potential Tuesday night
  into Wednesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. Light to
  Moderate snow on the mountain passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will push through the region late Tuesday into
Wednesday bring snow impacts to the mountain passes. The midweek
systems will bring the potential for light snow in the lowlands and
moderate snow over the mountains but carries high uncertainity.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight: Winds will continue to decrease through the evening and
overnight as the area stabilizes behind the cold front. Clear skies
will bring cool overnight temperatures of upper 20s to low 30s.
Areas that did not get sufficient dry air could see patchy fog in
the early morning hours.

Tuesday through Thursday: Ensembles continue to bring a couple of
shortwaves through the region. The first has more moisture and
brings the bulk of the mountain snow. It will bring light to
moderate snow mainly to the mountains with rain to rain/snow mix to
portions of the Basin. Depending on the timing, some of the northern
Basin could receive snow from the wave. The second wave is expected
to be drier and bring mainly mountain snow. They will bring travel
impacts to the passes for the holiday.

Between Tuesday and Wednesday a warm front begins to lift into the
area, stalled briefly overnight Tuesday into early Wednesday as a
first shortwave passes by, before a stronger Pacific trough advances
toward the coast Wednesday night into Thursday AM and sends the warm
front north possibly as far north as the Canadian border.
Precipitation chances increasing over the Cascades and central WA
Tuesday late morning through afternoon, becoming likely over a large
portion of the area Tuesday night. The warm front halting its
northern push this period means the potential for the higher
precipitation amounts remains over the southern third of the CWA and
areas over the central and northern CWA may see much less, if any
actual significant precipitation amounts. Models do show the higher
precipitation potential linger around the southern CWA Wednesday,
before starting to expand back north Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning. Modest chances continue through the day Thursday over the
Cascades and eastern third of WA and ID, while they abate in the lee
of the Cascades.

Precipitation-type continues to be trickt as models show some
disagreement on how quickly the milder air arrives. Some are more
generous with pushing the milder air north Tuesday night/Wednesday
AM and others hold it south. With the east-southeast flow in that
time frame, the more likely scenario continues to hold that warm air
back until the stronger Pacific trough shifts it north. Snow levels
are remaining close to the surface through Wednesday. So rain/snow
or all rain is more likely over the southern quarter to third of the
CWA, with snow further north. Overall, the mountains will continue
to see the best chances for more moderate snow amounts, starting in
the Cascades Tuesday afternoon and expanding east for Tuesday night,
especially overnight, before rates start to decline through the day
Wednesday before snow potential picks up again Thursday. The
lowlands will have the best potential for snow Tuesday overnight
into early Wednesday morning.

Mountain pass chances of 6+" 4 PM TUE - 4 PM WED:

Stevens: 55%
Washington: 10%
Snoqualmie: 45%
Lookout: 10%

As for the lowlands, the NBM shows about a 20-30% chance of
measurable snow in places like the Spokane area, the Palouse and
northern counties. However the LREF (Long-Range Ensemble) has
about a 30 to 70% chance in each 6 hour period. So uncertainty
remains. Overall it may not be a lot but impacts are still
possible for Tuesday night/Wednesday and perhaps lingering through
Thursday for some of the northern zones.

Friday through Sunday: Models continue to show the potential for
unsettled conditions this period, with more a northwesterly flow and
potential for well below normal temperatures. There is good
agreement in the clusters of a very strong ridge forming in the Gulf
of Alaska, which would favor much cooler air than what we have
recently seen to filter into the region from the north.
However models continue to show a fairly large spread in actual
temperatures. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFs: VFR conditions continue into the early evening hours. Low
level stratus will develop overnight with a surface inversion. MVFR
ceilings are expected for GEG-SFF-COE overnight. Patchy fog is also
possible but confidence on impacting TAF sites is low. An
approaching warm front will begin to increase clouds and precip west
to east toward the end of the TAF period bringing IFR-MVFR
conditions.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High
confidence in VFR conditions late Monday morning/early
afternoon with gusty winds mixing down drier air to the surface
and eroding lingering low stratus and fog. Moderate on MVFR
ceilings for GEG-SFF-COE. Low confidence on fog impacts. Low to
Moderate confidence on timing of IFR-MVFR conditions with
incoming warm front.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        28  40  32  40  35  41 /   0  60  80  50  80  80
Coeur d`Alene  28  40  32  40  36  42     0  50  80  60  90  90
Pullman        26  39  32  40  36  43 /   0  50  90  70  80  80
Lewiston       31  43  38  46  40  48 /   0  40  80  70  70  70
Colville       23  38  25  40  28  39 /   0  70  80  40  80  80
Sandpoint      26  38  30  39  32  39 /  10  70  90  60  90  90
Kellogg        28  39  33  39  38  42 /  10  60  90  80  90  90
Moses Lake     27  40  32  41  35  42 /   0  70  70  70  70  60
Wenatchee      31  38  32  40  36  41 /   0  80  80  80  80  60
Omak           29  38  31  40  34  41 /   0  60  60  40  60  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory Central and Western Chelan County 10
     AM PST Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday.
ID...None.

&&

$$