058
FXUS66 KOTX 181122
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
322 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trending cooler this week but still above normal.

- Drier pattern this week

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A quieter weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week.
Temperatures will trend cooler but will still be above normal
through the week. A more active pattern is expected to develop
early next week with valley rain, mountain snow and breezy
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tonight: Low pressure that has been tracking over
northern Washington will exit through north Idaho by this
afternoon, while a secondary open wave trough comes on its heels
this afternoon into tonight. Rain and mountain snow over northeast
WA and ID this morning migrate east and decrease into this
afternoon, while more isolated showers are possible again across
the Cascades this afternoon spreading east this evening and
decreasing overnight. The best potential for any substantial
precipitation will be early today, with mainly light amounts this
afternoon and evening. By substantial I mean about 0.05 to 0.15
inches, then only a 0.01-0.02 this afternoon and tonight. Snow
levels are forecast to be round 2.5-3.5kft in the Cascades today,
lowest in the morning. Elsewhere snow levels drop to around
3-4.5kft by this afternoon from west to east, after being around
4-6kft early this morning. Some marginal breeziness will be found
this afternoon, with gusts of 10-20 mph. Highs will largely be in
the 40s today, with some areas near 50 in the L-C Valley and
deeper Columbia Basin. Lows tonight will be in the mid-20s to
mid-30s.

Wednesday to Monday: The period starts off drier, but the
wetter system makes it way toward the weekend into early next
week. Models continue vacillate on the precise evolution of the
late period system, degrading confidence in how much impact it
may have. Though there still remains the potential for some
moderate snow near the Cascade passes between Saturday and
Monday.

First between Wednesday and Thursday the area stays in a split
flow. Shortwave ridging controls Wednesday, then another
splitting trough pushes toward into the West heading into
Thursday. That splitting system however tends to take most of
the energy south and very little left further north, per at
least 3/4 of the guidance. Some hold a more consolidated trough
together to move inland Thursday with limited precipitation
chances. Models have not been entirely consistent over the past
few days so the forecast does show some increasing precipitation
chance around Thursday.

For the end of the seven-day forecast period, Friday into
Monday, the flow turns more zonal and a stronger jet noses its
way into the area along the US/Canadian border before
potentially sagging south into the area. Models diverge on that
point, with some tracking shortwave trough further north into
Canada and others pushing it near the US/BC border. The further
north track tends to keep the area drier until Sunday night and
Monday when a parent trough approaches. Yet not all guidance
agrees on the evolution of that feature. Either way look for
increasing precipitations Friday into Monday, with the highest
potential Saturday onward. The westerly flow will favor the
Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains with the higher
precipitation amount.

Snow levels are forecast to be around 4-6kft through Sunday,
dropping to around 3-4kft Monday lowest near the Cascades and
north-central WA. Then model show snow levels dropping to near
1.5-2.5 kft by Tuesday morning. As said some moderate snow is
possible in the Cascade passes, with lighter amounts as other
passes, between Saturday night and Monday. Lowlands will see
mainly rain, but some rain/snow mix is possible Sunday overnight
into early Monday and again perhaps toward Monday night into
next Tuesday morning. However precipitation amounts outside the
mountains continue to be on the lighter side. We will have to
keep an eye on the potential from breezy to gusty winds
depending on how the jet sets up, though right now models are
not showing much more than 1020 mph gusts. Highs will largely
be in the 40s and lows in the upper 20s and 30s.

Looking further ahead: Tuesday into the end of next week, i.e.
Thanksgiving into Friday, models are show the potential for
some lowland snow instead of a rain/snow mix. There is about a
20-40% chance of measurable snow (>=0.1 inch) Tuesday and then
another increased potential is indicated by models toward
Thursday night (Thanksgiving night) into Friday when the chance
of measurable snow is around 30-60% that time frame. So some
wintry weather may come in to the lowland as the Thanksgiving
holiday is ending, though at the moment it looks light and
temperatures may not support much accumulation on road surfaces.
As for the passes, the chance for additional moderate snow will
also be found around the mountain passes Tuesday and Thursday
night into Friday. With all this said, given the lack of clear
consistency even prior this time frame, these details are likely
to change. However some might want to start thinking of what
might be possible for the holiday, especially if there is
travel. It may not be that impactful, but the first potential
snow in the lowlands is at least somewhat noteworthy. /Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: A push of drier air in the boundary layer is evident
over Central WA with clearing skies as downslope west winds off
the Cascades develop. The latest HREF guidance shows this drier
air continuing to push east this morning with VFR conditions
expected to penetrate east into KGEG/KSFF/KPUW/KLWS by 14z, and
KCOE near 18z. For tonight a weak mid level trough passing
through will bring extensive mid level cloud cover which should
help limit the formation of fog and stratus with VFR conditions
expected to continue. The cool, dry advection will also lead to
gusty winds this morning to near 20 kts at KGEG/KSFF/KPUW.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions through the TAF period for
KEAT/KMWH. Moderate confidence regarding the timing of
improvement to VFR for the eastern TAF sites (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW)
this morning. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  30  46  30  47  30 /  30  10   0   0  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  45  32  46  32  48  33 /  60  20   0  10  10  10
Pullman        44  29  47  32  48  31 /  30  10   0  10  10  10
Lewiston       50  34  49  36  51  35 /  20  10   0   0  10   0
Colville       47  29  46  27  48  27 /  50  20  10  10  10  10
Sandpoint      46  31  45  31  46  32 /  90  30  10  10  10  20
Kellogg        45  33  47  35  51  36 /  80  20  10  10  20  20
Moses Lake     47  29  49  31  48  27 /  10   0   0  10   0   0
Wenatchee      48  33  46  36  50  34 /  10  10   0  10   0   0
Omak           48  31  46  33  48  32 /  20  10   0  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$