874
FXUS66 KOTX 011156
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
456 AM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Moderate to heavy rain over the Cascade Crest and Idaho
  Panhandle Mountains.

- Periods of light rain regionwide.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty southwest winds today. Otherwise areas of rain into
the evening. Dry conditions return on Sunday then several storm
systems will impact the region through next week, each bringing
valley rain and high mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday: A plume of subtropical moisture is draped across the
region with heavy cloud cover this morning with steady
precipitation falling across the Cascades. Lighter rain has been
falling over Eastern WA and far North Idaho at times but a
pronounced dry layer noted on the Friday afternoon sounding
between 530 mb and the surface has taken some time to saturate
though the 06z sounding is indicating this dry air is near
eroded. Consequently, light rain will continue to fill in across
the region today and become enhanced with the passage of a cold
front expected to cross the Cascades late morning and slowly
work east to southeast exiting the southern Idaho Panhandle
Saturday evening. Rainfall amounts have not changed much in the
latest model runs with upwards of a quarter to half inch in the
rising terrain of NE WA and N ID, tenth to quarter of inch for
Wenatchee, Omak, Spokane, Coeur D Alene, and Pullman and less
than a tenth in the lower Basin and L-C Valley. The Cascade
crest remains forecast to receive around two inches of liquid
with local amounts near three inches. Rises are forecast on the
Stehekin River but expected to remain below bankfull as recent
high elevation snows remain unripe and should be able to absorb
the incoming rain. Washington Pass is still at 30F suggesting
either freezing rain or snow is falling at the immediate pass
level and motorists should be prepared for winter travel
conditions over this pass.

The second and more impactful component of this storm system
will be strong winds. There is high confidence for a low-level
jet of 50-55kts to develop 2000-3000 feet above the ground
level. Initially, these winds will remain off the surface with a
stable environment in place. As the cold front presses through,
there is increasing confidence for stronger winds to mix down
to the surface, especially over the higher benches and
ridgetops. HREF has a 80-90% chance for gusts > 40 mph
stretching from Ritzville to Coeur D Alene and into the Idaho
Panhandle mainly south of Sandpoint and north of St Maries in
the afternoon before these probabilities sag southeast into the
Palouse and southern Shoshone County into the early evening.
Events of this nature are challenging and would not rule out
pulses of strong winds vs a consistent wind as the lower
boundary layer wavers from stable to briefly mixed during the
frontal passage. Once the front goes through, the pressure
gradients will remain strong with gusty winds but the threat for
gusts over 45 mph will decrease.

Sunday: A strong westerly jet of 150kts will be over the region
Sunday with continued breezy conditions but despite the strong
winds aloft, surface winds will be trending lower throughout the
day. Drier air will settle into the region delivering mostly
sunny skies and great end to the weekend.

Monday-Friday: An active weather pattern is in store for the PacNW
next week with several frontal systems poised to move through
the Western US. The first will be a quick hitter on Monday with
little to no precipitation. This will be quickly followed by a
wetter storm system Tuesday night into Wednesday with ties to
another plume of subtropical moisture. The trajectory of this
system supports lower snow levels for the Northern Cascades and
potential for moderate snows at Washington Pass and potential
for a wintry mix for several of the upper river valleys. Sherman
Pass will be another spot susceptible to winter travel
conditions. As this system tracks out of the region, another
bout of winds will stir up with gusts of 30 mph or stronger.
Potential for one to two more systems, each starting to trend
cooler and increased potential for snow in the mountains and
maybe some valleys. This is looking nearly 7 days out so stay
tuned! /sb

&&

.AVIATION...

.LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TRANSITIONING TO STRONG SURFACE WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

12Z TAFS: A plume of subtropical moisture draped across the
region will result in thick cloud cover with persistent
precipitation along the Cascades and periodic rain for most
terminals along and north of I-90. Rain chances will increase
region-wide with the passage of a cold front which crosses the
Cascades around 20z and slowly migrates through SE WA and
southern Idaho pushing through between 00-03z. MVFR to VFR
ceilingsbetween 2,500-5,000 feet expected across extreme
eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle with rain today. A
more significant aviation concern will be for low level wind
shear with a low level jet developing ahead of the cold front
with winds 40-50kts 2000-4000 ft AGL. Cold front passage will
then produce strong surface winds with potential for gusts of
30-40 kts.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Moderate to high confidence for LLWS. Biggest uncertainty will
be how strong persistent and strong wind gusts will be along and
behind the cold front. HREF has a 80-90% for gusts greater 35
kts and would not rule out isolated gusts around 45 kts. There
is moderate confidence with a 30-50% chance for ceilings between
2,000-3,000 ft agl at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW between 20-03Z. /SVH

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        58  34  50  32  48  35 /  90  30   0   0  20  60
Coeur d`Alene  56  35  50  32  47  35 / 100  60  10   0  20  60
Pullman        60  35  49  31  47  35 /  70  70   0   0  30  70
Lewiston       65  41  57  37  52  41 /  50  70   0   0  20  70
Colville       52  24  50  23  46  24 / 100  20   0   0  20  50
Sandpoint      51  33  48  28  45  31 / 100  70  20   0  30  60
Kellogg        55  37  47  34  47  38 /  90  90  30   0  40  70
Moses Lake     63  34  55  33  50  33 /  70   0   0   0  10  50
Wenatchee      58  37  53  37  49  36 /  90  20   0   0  20  50
Omak           52  32  52  33  49  33 /  90  10   0   0  10  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake
     Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this
     evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene
     Area-Idaho Palouse-Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$