321
FXUS66 KOTX 061832
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1032 AM PST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Moderate to heavy mountain snow through Saturday at the
  Cascade crest and the Idaho Panhandle mountains.

- Increased potential for rises along small creeks and streams
  and rock slides next week due to a very wet and warm pattern
  moving through.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A very active weather pattern will continue to impact the area
and bring winter and wind impacts through Saturday. Sunday into
next week, a series of very wet and warm systems will move
through. This will result in warmer than normal temperatures,
mountain snow, rain, and strong wind gusts.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Sunday through Wednesday: The active weather pattern will continue
well into next week with a series of atmospheric rivers impacting
the forecast area. PWATs will drop to right around 100% of normal
for some of the day Sunday, but this drop will be very brief. Late
Sunday morning, the first surge of warm, moist air will move through
and raise PWATs back to 150-200% of normal. Snow levels will start
out around 4000 feet and increase steadily through the week, which
will result in mainly rain for the lowland areas and heavy snowfall
for the mountains. By early Monday morning, NBM probabilities of 24-
hour rainfall give Spokane, CdA, Deer Park, Sandpoint, and Pullman a
60 percent chance and above of 0.25 inches of rain. The second surge
of moisture will move through Monday night into Tuesday, bringing
PWATs even higher, to 200-250% of normal. A similar increase in
PWATs will occur Wednesday through Thursday as well. While in the
extended period at this point, long-range models are indicating the
series of systems next week to have a significant impact on the
area. The Extreme Forecast Index shows very anomalously high QPF,
wind/wind gusts, and temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. All
clusters show strong lower heights moving into the area with
embedded shortwaves. The Climate Prediction Center`s 6-10 Day
Outlook indicates increased chances of higher than normal
temperatures and precipitation.

With snow levels being so high, it is looking more and more like
hydrological impacts may occur alongside wintry travel conditions
and high winds. A Hydrologic Outlook has already been issued for
next week indicating rises on small creeks and streams due to low
elevation snowmelt. Any moderate or high impact burn scars will
continued to be monitored closely for any potential impacts.
Additionally, there will be an increased risk for mud and rock
slides in areas of steep terrain. We will be keeping a very, very
close eye on this series of systems next week due to the potential
for multiple weather headlines and impacts. /AS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs:The influx of relatively drier are and breezy
conditions this morning has improved all TAF sites to VFR.
Smaller terminals across sheltered valleys in northeast
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle valleys remain the exception
with IFR and MVFR conditions. Models depict the main band of
rain and snow currently located over far northeast Washington
and the Idaho Panhandle to move east into Montana by 0Z. Breezy
west to southwest wind gusts 20-30 knots (25-40 knots for
KPUW/KLWS) will continue through the mid afternoon before
gradually decreasing this evening. 35-45kt winds 2000 feet AGL
across central Washington may result in a few hours of LLWS,
particularly at KEAT, as the boundary layer decouples and the
surface winds decrease after sunset.

Behind the main band of precipitation, steepening low to mid
level lapse rates will increase instability this afternoon. Hi
res models are showing isolated showers developing primarily
after 21/22Z across far eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle. Confidence in showers moving over a specific TAF
site is overall low, with the best chances (30-40%) for
KCOE/KPUW/KLWS through 03/04Z.

Models generally have TAF sites remaining VFR through the day,
though isolated showers could bring intermittent MVFR
conditions. The next round of precipitation will move in from
the south Sunday morning with a warm front. Precipitation will
begin first to KEAT/KMWH around 14/15Z, spreading north into the
rest of the area through the morning. Models have moderate to
high confidence for at least widespread MVFR conditions
redeveloping after 08Z for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW and after 15Z for
KLWS/KMWH/KEAT. KGEG/KSFF/KCOE also carry moderate confidence
for IFR conditions after 12Z.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence for VFR conditions over the TAF sites for the
next 12 hours, with the exception of sites that see showers this
afternoon and evening. Moderate to high confidence in the return
of widespread MVFR conditions Sunday morning. Moderate
confidence for IFR conditions at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        44  35  43  38  49  41 /  40  10  90  60  90  80
Coeur d`Alene  43  35  43  38  49  40 /  70  40 100  80  90 100
Pullman        44  37  44  40  49  44 /  60  30  90  80  90 100
Lewiston       51  40  48  43  54  45 /  50  30  80  70  80  90
Colville       41  28  38  33  46  35 /  50  10 100  60  90  90
Sandpoint      39  34  40  37  44  39 /  90  50 100  90 100 100
Kellogg        39  37  41  40  46  40 / 100  70 100 100 100 100
Moses Lake     50  35  47  38  52  43 /  10  10  80  20  60  60
Wenatchee      49  37  45  39  51  42 /  20  30  90  40  80  80
Omak           43  32  40  34  43  36 /  20  10  80  30  80  80

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Western
     Chelan County.
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$