902
FXUS66 KOTX 240621
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1021 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow returns to the mountain passes Sunday evening and
  night.

- Gusty winds with a cold front passage Sunday night through
  Monday.

- High degree of uncertainty for valley snow potential Tuesday
  night into Wednesday and Wednesday night into Thursday. Light
  to Moderate snow on the mountain passes.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move in tonight, with some mountain
snow and lowland rain chances. Gusty winds also develop tonight
into Monday. Snow will impact the mountain passes again Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The midweek systems will bring the
potential for light snow in the lowlands and moderate snow over
the mountains but carries high uncertainty.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Sunday through Tuesday afternoon: The bulk of the remaining
rain with a weak atmospheric river moving through the region
will be concentrated in southeast Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle this evening and tonight. Models show a marginal
increase in precipitable water anomalies (160 percent to nearly
200 percent of normal) there ahead of an incoming cold front
passage. The mountain passes can expect to see some light snow
amounts from this front passage this evening and tonight
(Stevens: 2-3", Washington: 1-2", Lookout: 2-4") as well.
Southwest winds will increase in the lowlands of eastern WA and
north Idaho as the front passes and cold advection continues
through Monday morning with sustained speeds around 10-20 mph
gusting up to 35 mph on the Palouse. Southwest winds will
continue through the early afternoon Monday but slowly subside
in the evening hours as the shortwave trough departs. Light snow
(snow levels around 2500`) will continue in the Cascades and
Idaho Panhandle mountains Monday with strong west/northwest flow
aloft. The lowlands will be dry Monday with highs in the 40s.
Monday will be a good travel day. Monday night will be cold with
lows in the low 20s to low 30s as drier air and fairly minimal
cloud cover initially will allow for strong radiational cooling.
Tuesday morning into the early afternoon will be a good day for
travel ahead of incoming weather system under the influence of
a weak ridge.

Tuesday night through Thursday: There is still a high degree of
uncertainty regarding the lowland snow potential in this timeframe.
One could argue there is even less clarity than yesterday. Models
show the moisture plume is further south and looks too far displaced
from the warm front passage Tuesday evening into Wednesday.
Ensembles still indicate a small potential (5-25% chance) for
lowland snow Wednesday morning of at least a dusting. This is a
notable trend down from what was seen even yesterday for the
lowlands.

Mountain pass chances of 6+" 4 PM TUE - 4 PM WED:
Stevens: 50%
Washington: 30%
Snoqualmie: 25%
Lookout: 15%

As the low approaches the northwestern US/southern BC coast (also
low confidence where this ends up) Wednesday night into Thursday,
precipitation will increase inland. This round of potential lowland
snow is starting to look more interesting as the moisture and
dynamics have better potential for overlap. There is still large
disagreement on the strength/position of the mid-level shortwave
trough amongst the models which will be a determining factor for
where wintry precipition is and how heavy it could be. Overall the
message remains the same... continue to monitor the forecast
closely from Tuesday to Thursday.

Friday onward: Ensemble clusters are indicating the potential for
unsettled conditions to continue into next weekend but the more
noteworthy mention at this point in the forecast is the potential
for well below normal temperatures. There is good agreement in the
clusters of a very strong ridge forming in the Gulf of Alaska, which
would favor much cooler air than what we have recently seen to
filter into the region from the north. /DB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: A cold front will contoinue to push across the area
this evening into early Monday, with areas of rain potentially
mixing with some snow overnight/early Monday AM but the
precipitation is expected to decrease after 12-15Z. Expect
MVFR/IFR conditions tonight, except near LWS where primarily VFR
conditions are expected. Other sites are expected to see
improvement heading through the morning to midday, with all
sites improving to VFR. Winds will also increase late tonight
into Monday, with gusts near 15-30kts possible before decreasing
in the late afternoon to evening Monday.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for IFR cigs to develop in eastern WA and north Idaho this
evening and last until around 13z. Possible more rapid
improvement at EAT/MWH tonight, with only moderate confidence in
precise timing. High confidence is improvement to VFR conditions
through Monday, moderate confidence on timing.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        33  43  25  40  31  38 /  70  30   0   0  50  60
Coeur d`Alene  34  42  26  40  31  38 /  90  50  10   0  60  70
Pullman        33  41  25  40  31  38 / 100  50  10   0  60  70
Lewiston       40  47  29  43  36  44 /  90  50   0   0  50  60
Colville       29  45  21  39  24  38 /  60  40   0   0  60  50
Sandpoint      33  41  25  38  29  38 /  90  60  20  10  60  70
Kellogg        34  40  27  39  32  38 / 100  80  20  10  60  80
Moses Lake     30  48  24  40  31  39 /  40   0   0   0  50  50
Wenatchee      34  47  29  40  33  38 /  20   0   0  10  60  50
Omak           31  45  26  38  31  39 /  20   0   0   0  50  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$