516
FXUS66 KOTX 150837
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1237 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mountain snow Sunday into Monday. Minor travel impacts
  expected.

- Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues throughout
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The Inland Northwest will continue to have showers into
Saturday morning. Light snow is expected over mountain passes. A
brief break between weather systems on Saturday. Then another
weather system Sunday into Monday will bring additional light
precipitation including more light snow to mountain passes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday and Sunday: Satellite and radar are showing a more
westerly-zonal flow as precipitation continues to fall across
the northern counties in Washington and Idaho. The Cascades are
also receiving the brunt of the precipitation as the system
transitions perpendicular to the mountain range. The above
normal precipitable water content with this system will lose
some of that moisture Saturday into Sunday, and as such we`ll
see a break in the valley rain for many low-land areas Saturday.
Sunday the next upper level trough swings in from the
northwest, brining another round of precipitation to the Inland
Northwest. This time, the amounts look light and with higher
snow levels, any snow should remain at the higher mountain
ridges. This weather system will again remain mild with
temperatures overnight in the 40s and during the daytime in the
50s.

Monday through Friday: The upper level weather system will move
through the region and begin to introduce cooler air aloft.
There remains quite differing solutions through the week, more
notable for Tuesday and again by Friday, as far as the strength
of the cooler air mass and the precipitation (type and amount).
Relying on the ensemble suite of models, there is good consensus
Tuesday and Wednesday before differences arise Friday with the
placement and strength of the Low moving into the West. The
cooler air mass will bring lower snow levels through the week,
though remaining around 3000-4000 feet. Periods of precipitation
through the week will be common, as has seemed to be common the
last few weeks. Most of the Inland Northwest (outside of Grant
County) will have greater than 50% chance of seeing more than
half an inch of precipitation by Friday. North Idaho, from St
Maries to Bonners Ferry has greater than 60% chance of seeing
more than three-quarters of an inch of precipitation, and the
Cascade Crest (western Chelan and Okanogan counties) has greater
than 75% chance of seeing over 1.25 inches of precipitation.
Periods of precipitation look to be light in intensity so more
beneficial and low impact through the week. /Dewey

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: The wet weather system will continue pushing east and
exit the region on Saturday. The surface gradient will gradually
relax after 19-21z Saturday allowing surface winds to relax.
Until then, breezy southwest winds will prevail for most air
fields which will also limit some MVFR Vis/Cig conditions.
However, cool overnight temps and a moist air mass in place will
bring MVFR conditions Saturday morning as the winds begin to
taper. After 22z Saturday, conditions should improve to VFR.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to
high confidence for MVFR ceiling conditions. Low confidence in
reaching IFR ceiling conditions. /Dewey

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        52  45  56  42  55  42 /  70  60  20  20  30  60
Coeur d`Alene  51  45  54  42  53  43 /  80  90  50  30  30  70
Pullman        52  44  56  41  53  42 /  80  40  50  10  40  80
Lewiston       59  48  61  44  55  47 /  60  20  30   0  50  80
Colville       49  37  54  38  52  38 /  90  80  30  50  50  60
Sandpoint      48  41  50  40  52  41 /  90 100  80  60  50  70
Kellogg        49  45  50  43  54  45 /  90 100  90  30  40  90
Moses Lake     57  44  60  43  57  42 /  20  20   0  20  20  30
Wenatchee      55  46  60  47  55  45 /  40  50  10  30  20  40
Omak           52  42  55  43  53  44 /  60  40  10  20  30  30

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$