396
FXUS66 KOTX 050601
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1001 PM PST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry mix Thursday into Friday may result in a slick commute.
  20-40% of 1" of snow in the northeast valleys.

- Periods of moderate to heavy mountain snow in the mountain
  passes through Saturday.

- Increased potential for rock slides next week with a mild and
  wet weather pattern.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather will trend much more unsettled Thursday through the
weekend. Temperatures look to be cold enough tonight into
Friday to support a lowland wintry mix. By Friday, temperatures
will modify and warm above normal with unsettled weather
continuing through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
...MIXED VALLEY PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND TO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS...

Thursday and through Friday: The first wave of precipitation has
moved through and the bulk of the wintry precip at this point is
south of I-90 early this afternoon. Precipitation will continue
to decrease from north to south this evening leading to a brief
break before the next wave of precipitation moves in Friday
morning. There is a minor freezing rain threat primarily on the
Waterville Plateau again early Friday morning before surface
temperatures warm above freezing. Have held off on any
additional winter weather advisories for now given uncertainty
for surface temperatures. Expecting mostly rain with this system
except the cooler northeast valleys where up to an inch of snow
will fall Friday morning.

Friday afternoon through Saturday: There will be a cold front
passage Friday evening associated with the occluded surface
low hanging back in SW BC. Snow levels will drop at the mountain
passes leading to a changeover to snow. Stevens Pass will see
around 5-10" of wet heavy snow Friday night through Saturday
evening. Lookout Pass will receive another 4-8" inches of snow
as well. Strong winds will develop in the wake of this frontal
passage around 45-60 kt in the 2-6 kft layer leading to strong
westerly winds gusting up to 55 mph. in the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau, and the Alpowa summit area Friday night into
Saturday. Peaks around 3000-6000` in the east slopes of the
Cascades have potential to gust around 55-70 mph.

Sunday through Thursday: Snow levels rise above 4000 feet
minimizing wintry impacts in the lowlands. The mountain passes
are not completely out of the woods for winter impacts just
yet, especially Stevens Pass. An active storm track will favor
rounds repeated subtropical moisture into the region next week.
Monday and Wednesday next week look particularly interesting as
models suggest PWATs anomalies could rise above a staggering
300% of normal. This pattern would bring a lot of rain to the
Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle with strong westerly flow. How
much rain? Models suggest around 5- 10" in the Cascades and
around 2-6" for the Idaho Panhandle. So concerns will shift to
mud and rock slides in steep terrain due to rain and snow melt,
and rises on rivers and small streams. At this time no flooding
is forecast in eastern WA and north ID. DB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: One round of precipitation will exit the ID Panhandle
overnight.  An abundance of IFR stratus will encompass the region
with locally dense fog due to a saturated boundary layer and
light winds.  The next system moves in Friday with a strong
upper level jet stream around 150-160 kts from west to east.
Another round of precipitation will occur with a mix of rain and
snow. Low level wind shear is shown in model soundings for
KEAT/KMWH/KLWS between 0z-6z Saturday as winds around 2k feet AGL
increase to around 40-50 kts. Stronger gusts may occasional mix
down to the surface in these areas.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence of widespread IFR and MVFR conditions across the
region into Friday. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        31  39  35  44  36  44 /  50  90  50  30  30  80
Coeur d`Alene  32  39  35  42  35  43 /  60 100  80  70  50  90
Pullman        33  44  38  43  38  44 /  90 100  80  70  60  90
Lewiston       37  50  41  51  41  49 /  90 100  80  50  40  70
Colville       31  37  33  41  32  39 /  20 100  50  40  30  90
Sandpoint      30  37  33  39  35  41 /  50 100 100  90  70 100
Kellogg        33  40  35  40  37  41 /  90 100 100 100  80 100
Moses Lake     34  42  36  51  36  48 /  20  70  10  10  10  60
Wenatchee      35  46  38  50  37  46 /  30  80  50  30  30  70
Omak           33  39  34  42  33  40 /  10  80  40  20  10  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 10 PM PST Saturday
     for Western Chelan County.
ID...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Saturday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains.

&&

$$