534
FXUS66 KOTX 071838
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1038 AM PST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds through Friday.

- Drier weather this weekend.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy winds are expected today with localized gusts of 30 to
40 mph. The weekend into the first half of next week will bring
a break in the wet weather with continued mild temperatures for
November.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Friday: An occluded front, evident on water vapor and
microphysics satellite imagery, is tracking east across the
Inland Northwest early this morning. Precipitation ahead of the
front will clear from west to east, followed by much drier air
as high pressure builds in. Strong winds aloft (40-45 kt at 850
mb) will mix down to the surface with the front and produce
gusts of 30-45 mph. Breezy conditions will persist through
Friday afternoon, supported by a 5-7 mb PDX-GEG surface pressure
gradient and steep low-level lapse rates, before diminishing
Friday evening.

Friday night through Sunday: Models are in strong agreement on
a high amplitude upper-level ridge building over the West Coast
this weekend. Clearing skies will permit temperatures to drop
sharply Friday night. However, significant uncertainty exists in
the temperatures with fog and stratus development.
Strengthening inversions under the ridge combined with ample
residual boundary layer moisture following the previous week of
wet weather creates a favorable environment for fog/stratus.
Should persistent fog/stratus become trapped in the valleys
(especially northeast WA and the ID Panhandle), high
temperatures will be significantly cooler than the current
forecast.

Monday through Thursday: The ridge flattens early next week as
systems track across northern British Columbia. This pattern
limits the highest precipitation chances (30-60%) to the
Cascades and Idaho Panhandle mountains, with lower chances
(15-30%) for far eastern Washington. Ensemble guidance diverges
by mid-week regarding the evolution and timing of a low pressure
system digging in the eastern Pacific. Widespread precipitation
chances begin to increase on Thursday and Friday, but model
uncertainty is currently too high to dive into the specifics.
/vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Winds will remain breezy through this afternoon
before relaxing tonight. Northern ID and the WA Cascades will
see cloud cover, but most locations will remain VFR. Calmer
winds and a moist boundary layer is expected to result in areas
of fog across the valleys of northeast Washington and the Idaho
panhandle Friday night. KGEG, KSFF, KCOE are anticipated to have
the greatest chances at our TAF sites for fog by Saturday
morning.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence remains high for VFR conditions at airports today
into this evening; however, stratocumulus cover today is
expected to result in mountain obscurations in the Cascades and
in the Idaho Panhandle.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        49  29  48  30  52  34 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  48  31  48  32  51  36 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        47  29  49  33  54  37 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       56  34  54  37  57  41 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       49  24  48  24  50  28 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      47  29  46  29  49  33 /  50  10  10   0   0   0
Kellogg        44  33  48  34  54  41 /  40  30  10   0   0   0
Moses Lake     53  28  51  32  53  33 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      52  33  49  36  52  39 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           52  31  48  33  51  35 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$