502
FXUS66 KOTX 021747
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
947 AM PST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weather remains active through the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Relatively drier conditions return Sunday, then several storm
systems will impact the region through the week, each bringing
valley rain and high mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today and tonight: Limited shower chances and breezy conditions
are in the forecast, with seasonal temperatures. The Inland NW
will remain in a fast zonal flow with a 150kt jet over the top
of the region and this will carry a weak middle to upper wave by
the area this morning. At the surface weak high pressure builds
in, with a steady west to southwest flow. With a decent amount
of rain over southeast WA/lower ID (over a quarter inch in
spots) the boundary layer is decently moist. In combination with
that mid-level impulse some lower to mid clouds are expected to
expand over southeast WA and lower ID this morning, potentially
lifting northward to southern Spokane and Kootenai county. Most
guidance keep the deeper cloud cover south of there. With all
there models paint of shower chances around the Idaho Panhandle
and southeast WA, with the best chances east of CdA and south to
the higher Palouse into the Central Panhandle. I did expand the
PoPs a little more than than the NBM, which largely keeps it in
the central Panhandle Mountains. Other precipitation is
expected near the Cascades in the onshore flow. All of these
precipitation chances will be highest this morning, before
decreasing this afternoon. Snow levels will be around 3-4kft,
lowest near the Cascades and Canadian border, so some light
accumulations are forecast for places like Stevens, Washington,
and Lookout Pass. Stevens Pass has the best chance of seeing 1-2
inches, while other areas are forecast to see an inch or less.
Tonight the next system starts to nose in, increasing clouds
across the region and bringing some limited precipitation
chances late overnight and toward Monday AM. Temperatures will
be in the upper 40s to low 50s this afternoon. Winds will be at
around 10-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph through the afternoon.

Monday through Saturday: The pattern turns more active with a
series of frontal waves pushing by. The first and coolest system
moves by Monday, with the main warm front lifting into the
southern and low skimming by the southern third of WA and lower
ID. This will bring limited lowland rain and mountain snow
chances to the area Monday morning, with the better chances
shifting to southeast WA/lower ID in the afternoon. Snow levels
will between 2.5-3kft, except toward southeast W/lower ID where
they are forecast to be between 3-5kft.

Then Monday night into Tuesday a more robust system moves in,
with a stronger low and supporting upper trough. This will
expand higher precipitation chances across the area, with likely
PoPS over near Cascade crest and southeast half of WA and much
of the central and southern Panhandle. Snow levels are forecast
to be between 3000 to 3500 feet over the Cascades and northern
mountains and 3500-6000 feet from central and southeast WA to
the central and southern Panhandle. This bring another chance
for accumulating snow around the passes; early forecast shows
1-2 around Stevens, 1 inch around Washington and less than an
inch at other passes. In the lowlands, rain amounts are forecast
to be highest over southeast WA and central and southern ID,
with 0.20-0.40 inches, while around 0.10 to 0.20 toward the
Spokane/CdA area and less than 0.10 inches elsewhere.

Wednesday to Friday another two systems track in, with
Wednesday and Friday having the highest precipitation potential,
with Thursday and then Saturday the drier days as the risk for
precipitation does not end but the higher risk retreat to the
mountains. Snow levels rise to around 6-8kft for the Wednesday
system, then start to trend down Thursday into Friday so that by
Friday into Saturday snow levels are around 4-5.5kft, locally
toward 3.5 Friday night into Saturday AM. So the midweek system
look like mostly rain and high mountain snow, except around
Washington Pass where some light to moderate accumulations are
forecast. while the Friday system looks more lowland rain and
mountain snow, with potential impacts in the passes. It is still
several days out, but models continue to suggest some moderate
to heavy accumulations around Washington Pass, light to moderate
around Stevens Pass and lighter accumulations elsewhere. These
look like wet systems for the lowlands too, with between 0.10 to
0.50 with each system, with local higher around the mountains
/Solveig

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected over much of the Inland
Northwest today. High clouds will increase and thicken tonight.
Very light precipitation in the form of flurries or sprinkles
may fall in the Cascades and northern mountains by Monday
morning, but not expected to bring much in the of impacts to
airports as any precipitation won`t moisten the boundary layer
up much. Short term ensembles are showing potential low level
cloud development across the Inland Northwest for early Monday
morning.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence
remains high for VFR conditions today. There`s a 40% chance for
broken stratus producing a cloud deck between 1,000-3,000 ft
agl. between 16-20Z Monday morning for all TAF sites excluding
LWS. /JDC

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        51  33  48  35  48  38 /  10  10  20  60  40  60
Coeur d`Alene  49  33  46  35  48  38 /  10  10  20  60  50  60
Pullman        48  33  45  37  50  39 /  20   0  30  70  50  50
Lewiston       56  38  50  42  55  45 /  10   0  20  70  40  40
Colville       51  27  46  27  47  28 /  10   0  20  40  30  60
Sandpoint      48  32  44  32  46  33 /  10  10  20  60  50  70
Kellogg        47  34  46  37  48  40 /  40  10  50  70  70  70
Moses Lake     55  36  50  35  51  39 /  10  10  20  50  30  80
Wenatchee      53  38  48  37  48  40 /  10  10  30  50  30  90
Omak           52  34  48  33  48  36 /  10  10  20  30  20  70

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$