042
FXUS66 KOTX 290852
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1252 AM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder temperatures over weekend into early next week.

- Light snow Monday night into Tuesday, especially in the
  Central Panhandle Mountains. Minor impacts for the Tuesday
  morning commute possible.

- Modifying temperatures and a transition of rain to snow late
  next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures cool to below normal over the weekend. A weather
system on Monday night will bring light snow mainly to the Idaho
Panhandle and extreme Eastern Washington. Temperatures will
modify and warm above normal late next week. Unsettled late next
week as well with snow transitioning to rain in the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Thursday: There will be an amplified upper level
pressure pattern with ridge of high pressure in the eastern Pacific
and trough of low pressure over the Rockies to central U.S. This
will place the Northwest region under northwest flow, which is a
colder flow pattern and that is apparent with the below average
temperatures through the weekend. Snow levels will be lower as well
and precipitation that comes will most likely fall as snow in the
lowlands. There will be couple weather disturbances that swing
across that will bring that potential for snow.

The first disturbance currently pushing south across the BC
coastline will be lacking sufficient moisture for much precipitation
to fall across the region. We`ll see mid to high level cloud cover
through the day today, but any measurable precipitation will most
likely occur over western Washington and across Oregon. A surface
low will spin up and take this general path as well with light
easterly winds this morning backing north to northeast by tonight.

The second shortwave disturbance arrives Monday night. This
disturbance will track across as an open wave and will be supplied
with a better plume of moisture. Precipitation typically favors the
Central Panhandle in a Northwest flow regime, and model guidance
supports this. Total snow Monday night into Tuesday morning looks to
range between 1 to 3 inches in the valleys of Central Idaho with the
higher elevations above 3,000 feet seeing the potential of 3 to 5
inches. Lookout Pass will more likely see the potential of around 3
inches with a 50% probability off of the NBM. Accumulations closer
to 5 inches are more likely for the mountains south of I-90 in the
Panhandle. The Idaho Panhandle in general will see a 50-80% chance
for at least an inch of snow aside from Lewiston (too warm) and
Bonners Ferry (lack of moisture). Chances for at least an inch of
snow between Spokane and Pullman will be between 20-40% with the
higher probability expected near Pullman. Minor impacts may occur
for the Tuesday morning commute and travel over Lookout Pass. Light
snow is also expected over the Camas Prairie with minor impacts
possible for travel along U.S. 95.

Thursday night through Sunday: This is when the model ensembles
begin to diverge a bit. The general consensus is that the ridge of
high pressure over the eastern Pacific will flatten a bit, but there
is uncertainty with how quickly that will occur. The flattening of
the ridge will result in a less amplified pressure pattern and a
more zonal storm track. This would result in a sub-tropical
moisture plume to be directed into the Northwest with a wetter
pattern at least away from the shadow area in the lee of the
Cascade Mountain Range. Temperatures will see a modification and
warm above normal. Precipitation would see a transition from
snow to rain in the low lands, and even mountain passes may see
a switch over to rain as well. It`s also not out of the
question that we see a little bit of freezing precipitation as
the first round of precipitation moves in with warm air
advection Thursday night into Friday morning. /SVH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFs: Patchy low stratus cover with low IFR conditions lingers
at KPUW this evening. Drier easterly winds picking up around
midnight (08Z) will push the low clouds of this terminal. An
upper level weather disturbance will also bring mid to high
clouds across the Inland Northwest through Saturday. The
increasing cloud cover will limit radiational cooling and
additional low clouds from forming. Breezy east to northeast
winds sustained between 10-15 kts at KCOE and KPUW on Saturday.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in the low stratus clearing out of KPUW tonight and VFR
conditions prevailing at all TAF sites thereafter. There is a
20-30% chance that the moisture producing the low stratus at
KPUW moves into KMWH and KEAT with a period of MVFR ceilings
overnight into Saturday morning. /SVH

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        36  21  35  25  36  28 /   0   0   0   0   0  50
Coeur d`Alene  35  21  34  25  37  29 /   0   0   0   0  10  70
Pullman        38  26  35  24  37  29 /   0  20  10   0   0  70
Lewiston       41  31  39  28  41  33 /   0  20   0   0   0  60
Colville       37  17  35  19  35  22 /   0   0   0   0  10  50
Sandpoint      32  18  32  22  34  27 /   0  10   0   0  20  80
Kellogg        35  21  35  25  37  32 /   0  10   0   0  10  80
Moses Lake     40  23  38  24  37  27 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Wenatchee      38  28  39  29  38  32 /   0  10   0   0   0  20
Omak           37  23  37  25  36  27 /   0   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$