180
FXUS66 KOTX 012249
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
349 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty southwest winds Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Weather remains active through the week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong gusty southwest winds through the early evening.
Otherwise areas of rain into the evening across far eastern
Washington and north Idaho. Dry conditions return on Sunday then
several storm systems will impact the region through next week,
each bringing valley rain and high mountain snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Sunday: Light rain associated with modest low-
level warm air advection will taper off this afternoon as a cold
front, currently in central Washington, progresses eastward
through the region this afternoon. As of 2PM, SPC Mesoanalysis
shows strong 850mb southwesterly winds (~45-50 kt) for the
Columbia Basin into the Spokane/CdA area, positioned over a
stable boundary layer per the 18Z OTX sounding. High confidence
exists for these stronger winds to mix to the surface with the
cold frontal passage over the next couple hours. NBM
probabilities remain high (70% or greater) for maximum wind
gusts greater than 40 mph for the mountains, Columbia Basin,
Spokane/Coeur dAlene area, Washington/Idaho Palouse and for the
higher elevations for north Idaho. For maximum wind gusts
greater than 45 mph, the highest probabilities (70% or greater)
are found primarily in Lincoln/Adams counties into the West
Plains of Spokane and across the mountains. Behind the front,
winds will remain breezy through the evening with a strong
pressure gradient in place (7-9mb from PDX-GEG), but will
gradually decline through the night. On Sunday, breezy
conditions persisting into the morning should limit fog
potential to sheltered valleys. Temperatures will be noticeably
cooler, with highs 5-10 degrees cooler than Saturday (low to mid
50s for most locations across the southern half of eastern
Washington and north Idaho. The drier airmass behind the front
will yield mostly clear skies with a beautiful end to the
Halloweekend.

Monday through Friday: An active pattern is expected through
the work week with high confidence for multiple systems to pass
through. For Monday into Tuesday, model guidance diverges
significantly on the development of a surface low off the Oregon
coast. The ECMWF ensemble suite strongly supports this low,
which would advect moisture northward, supporting widespread
precipitation across the Inland Northwest. Conversely, the GEFS
and GEPS show minimal support, a solution that would result in a
much drier scenario, confining precipitation chances primarily
to far southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle.
Ensemble agreement improves for Tuesday through Wednesday. An
upper ridge is projected to build over the northern Rockies as a
deep upper- level low approaches the coast. This pattern
supports an atmospheric river event with a deep south-to-
southwest flow. This would support widespread preciptiation,
with the NBM showing a greater than 50% chance for 0.25 inches
of precipitation on Wednesday for most of the region, with the
exception of the L-C Valley due to rain shadowing off the Blue
Mountains.

Guidance remains in good agreement for another frontal system
Thursday into Friday, likely having a more westerly trajectory. This
would favor precipitation in the Cascades, far eastern
Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle (60% chance of greater than 0.25
inches), with lower amounts for the lee of the Cascades (30% chance
for 0.25 inches) due to rain-shadowing off the Cascades. This system
will introduce the lowest snow levels of the period, bringing
potential for moderate to heavy snow to the Cascades. Stronger winds
are also possible, with a 30-50% probability of gusts exceeding 45
mph from the Basin into the Spokane area.

Probabilistic NBM guidance for 24-hour snow accumulation Thursday
into Friday:

Snowfall Threshold       Stevens Pass        Washington Pass
>2 inches                      50%                  90%
>4 inches                      30%                  80%
>8 inches                      0%                   50%
>10 inches                     0%                   40%

/vmt

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: Back end of rain band is currently located along a line
from Bonners Ferry to Washtucna as a cold front moves through the
Inland Northwest. Expect this line to continue progressing to the
east between 00-03z. Ceilings have improved to VFR for all TAF Sites
and are expected to remain VFR through the period. The exception
will be for KPUW where HREF/LAMP probabilities show MVFR ceilings 02-
04Z. Strong southwest winds are expected with the cold front passage
00Z-03Z with potential for gusts of 30-40 kts at KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-
KPUW. Winds will gradually decrease overnight though should be
strong enough to inhibit fog from developing at TAF sites.

.FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for
VFR conditions at most TAF sites through the period. Exception is
for KPUW where there is a 50% chance for MVFR ceilings between 02-
04Z.

-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        35  51  32  47  33  50 /  30   0   0  10  50  30
Coeur d`Alene  35  49  32  47  34  48 /  60  10   0  20  50  40
Pullman        36  49  32  46  35  51 /  70   0   0  30  60  50
Lewiston       42  56  37  50  41  54 /  80   0   0  20  60  40
Colville       24  51  23  47  23  48 /  10   0   0  10  30  30
Sandpoint      32  47  28  44  29  46 /  70  20   0  30  50  40
Kellogg        38  46  34  46  37  48 /  90  30   0  40  60  60
Moses Lake     33  55  33  51  33  51 /   0   0   0  10  40  20
Wenatchee      36  54  37  49  36  48 /  20   0   0  10  40  20
Omak           31  52  32  49  31  48 /  10   0   0  10  20  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield
     and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper
     Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse.
ID...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-
     Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$