898
FXUS64 KOUN 011811
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
111 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 109 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

  - Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory across portions of
    northern, central and southern Oklahoma from 2 AM to 7 AM
    Sunday morning.

  - Above-average temperatures and dry conditions returning from
    Sunday onward into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

An upper-level trough to our northeast continues to depart. Our CWA
is in the northerly flow regime aloft with surface ridging sliding
overhead this evening and tonight. That will keep skies clear
through daybreak across most of the area. Relatively light northerly
winds will reach near-calm before shifting to southerly right at
daybreak. Given all of this, it`s a favorable evening for
temperatures to bottom out, especially closer to I-35 where the
surface ridge will be centered. Freeze conditions are possible in
north central Oklahoma toward the morning, and frost is possible
from central Oklahoma into the terrain-favored locations of
southeast Oklahoma.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The short-term period will be characterized by a warm-up trend and
dry weather. The impetus for this pattern will be the return of
shortwave ridging across the southern High Plains as soon as
tomorrow afternoon. Warmer temperatures will be located near the
western edge of the CWA where a stronger pressure gradient will
generate breezy southerly winds and get temperatures into the 70s.


The pattern will continue to be progressive during the day on
Monday, with a quite-strong-for-November 591 dam ridge centered over
central Texas. Because we`ll be closer to the center of the ridge,
winds will be lighter than Sunday. With that said, much warmer mid-
level temperatures will also manifest themselves in much warmer
surface temperatures - from the 70s for most of the area to
potentially the low 80s in western north Texas. Sunny skies will
continue, with overnight lows being warmer.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

The bulk of next week returns us towards unseasonable warmth and
mostly dry conditions. The background synoptic regime looks to
generally transition from quasi-zonal flow towards a more dominant
western CONUS ridge with time. While potential for weak (mainly dry)
frontal intrusions exists, mainly during the midweek, a pronounced
southerly flow regime and advecting warm airmasses from higher
western terrain will likely promote +10-25 degree daytime
temperature departures throughout this period. This includes
potential for multiple days with highs in the 80s across southern
portions of the forecast area.

Ungar

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025

North to northeast winds will become light and variable late this
afternoon and evening. The wind will become southerly on Sunday
and will be breezy by afternoon. VFR conditions will prevail
through the period with mid clouds decreasing across southern
Oklahoma this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  64  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         35  70  45  77 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  39  71  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           35  70  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     32  63  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         38  66  44  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ006>008-
     011>013-017>020.

     Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 7 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ025-026-
     028>032-040>043-046>048.

TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...06