408
FXUS64 KOUN 101803
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1203 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Breezy conditions and elevated fire weather Tuesday.

 - Warmer weather this week. Near-record temperatures possible later
in the week.

 - Storm chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

This morning recorded the coolest temperatures since late February
across many places in the forecast area as the 1037 mb surface
high moved into Oklahoma. This high will move southeast toward
Louisiana/Mississippi tonight while lee troughing develops across
the High Plains, so south/southwesterly winds will increase
overnight. Temperatures will generally remain above freezing
except perhaps in some sheltered areas across north central and
southeastern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Breezy conditions and elevated fire weather expected Tuesday
afternoon.

Winds will continue to increase from the southwest on Tuesday as
the surface high moves away and the developing surface trough
over the High Plains deepens. This will bring downslope winds and
warm, dry conditions tomorrow. Temperatures will be well above
average with highs generally in the 70s. The bias-corrected
components to forecast guidance seems to pull NBM toward lower
winds and higher dewpoints which will likely not apply in this
pattern, so have adjusted dewpoints (and therefore humidity) lower
and winds a little higher than NBM with this forecast. Combined
with the drying fuels across the area, the warm and dry weather is
expected to bring elevated fire weather conditions from western
sections of north Texas into southwest and central Oklahoma
Tuesday afternoon where the strongest winds are expected. Wind
speeds in northwest Oklahoma may not be as strong as the surface
trough approaches or moves into northwestern Oklahoma and relaxes
the pressure gradient. Based on the hourly forecast grids, the
elevated fire weather conditions could develop as early as 9 to 10
AM on Tuesday, but should decrease quickly around sunset as winds
decrease and humidity begins to recover.

The surface trough moving into northwest Oklahoma Tuesday afternoon
will continue to move southeast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Warm
temperatures will continue, but winds will be much lighter and
humidity is not expected to be as low on Wednesday afternoon
compared to Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1228 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

More of the same on Thursday, as mid-level flow becomes more zonal
and allows deep lee troughing to develop. Everywhere should see
highs well into the 70s and our Texas counties are likely to get
into the 80s. The primary limiting factor for fire weather will be
the return of a partially modified Gulf airmass with dewpoints
ranging from the mid-40s to low 60s. A deeper trough will reach the
western US during the day on Friday. Mass response in advance of
that trough will bring in even more modified Gulf air to our eastern
counties. West of the sharpening dryline, wind gusts of 30+ mph and
near-record heat are expected.

The next pattern break looks to arrive this weekend as the western
trough swings eastward into the Great Plains. This will bring our
first chance of rain and storms in quite some time. Some
uncertainties regarding timing of the trough/Pacific frontal passage
remain, but ensembles all agree that there will be a warm sector
favorable for convection ahead of the trough`s passage.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Southerly
winds will increase and become gusty by early Tuesday morning,
with stronger winds expected toward the end of the forecast.

Smith

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  37  69  41  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  75  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  41  75  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           40  75  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     32  69  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         36  69  46  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...15