858
FXUS64 KOUN 092251
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
451 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 433 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - Below-average temperatures through Monday with a hard freeze
   Monday morning.

 - Dry conditions persist through at least Saturday with elevated
   fire weather Tuesday.

 - A notable storm system will influence our weather next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold surface high pressure will build southward into the southern
Plains tonight into Monday morning.  This will bring a period of
relatively light winds, especially during the overnight period.
With a very dry airmass in place and good to excellent radiational
cooling, a hard freeze will occur over much of Oklahoma and western
north Texas.  Record low temperatures for Monday, November 10th:

20 degrees at OKC
21 degrees at Lawton
22 degrees at Wichita Falls

Although we are not expecting to tie or establish new record lows,
it does indicate this is rather cold air for early November. No
changes will be made to the current Freeze Warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

With a lee trough developing early Monday, a decent pressure
gradient will develop across far western Oklahoma by mid to late
afternoon.  This will result in a moderate breeze with mainly a
light wind elsewhere during the daylight hours.   Afternoon highs
will remain on the cool side with afternoon humidity around 30
percent.

The surface pressure gradient will continue to increase and expand
across Oklahoma and northern Texas Monday night.  This will result
in a brisk wind at times, especially during the overnight hours.
With a dry airmass in place, only fair to good humidity recovery
will occur by Tuesday morning (on average about 50% RH).

With a strongly veered low-level flow (downslope), temperatures
will warm into upper 60s to upper 70s Tuesday afternoon. A weak
surface trough is expected to bring a wind shift and lighter winds to
parts of northwestern and west central Oklahoma by mid afternoon.

However, stronger transport winds are expected from western north
Texas into central Oklahoma during peak warming. With only a modest
increase in dewpoint temperatures afternoon humidity will
approach 20-25 percent most areas. This will result in elevated to
perhaps near- critical fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1221 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Attention in the long term will focus on the approach of a strong
upper air trough/low which is anticipated to influence our weather
next weekend. Ensemble guidance reveals that notable uncertainty
remains with regard to the exact nature this system and its impact
on Oklahoma/western north Texas. The spread in outcomes will be
dependent on the exact speed and depth of the upper air
trough/low. The official forecast is favored by more than 40% of
the ensemble members in cluster analysis, with only 17% of the
members not resolving the feature of interest well at all. NBM
currently indicates 20-30 percent PoPS favoring eastern Oklahoma
by late Saturday. However, nearly 50% of the ensemble members
appear to indicate at least 0.01 inches of rainfall over a
majority of the forecast area. Meanwhile, NBM probabilities for
surface winds exceeding 25 mph are also in the 25% range,
indicating that the jury is still out whether this system will
actually be a rain or wind producer, or both. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through 00Z Tuesday.
Other than scattered high clouds across western Oklahoma a clear
sky is expected. A breezy northerly wind diminish near 00Z this
evening with light and variable winds expected during the
overnight hours. A southerly wind will return to western Oklahoma
Monday morning, and other sites by late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  24  49  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         24  56  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  27  55  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           23  56  39  75 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     21  47  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         27  53  36  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...06