618
FXUS64 KOUN 071746
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1146 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

 - A significant cold front brings below-average temperatures to
   the area on Sunday and Monday, with a hard freeze Monday
   morning.

 - Dry conditions persist for at least the next seven days.

 - Elevated fire weather possible Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Surface high pressure will build over Oklahoma this afternoon into
the overnight hours.  This will bring light and variable winds by
the early evening hours.  Drier air behind a front last night into
this morning is not overly dry, therefore, some shallow ground fog
is possible by early Saturday morning, especially across south
central and southeastern Oklahoma.  Otherwise, temperatures will
fall into the 40s by sunrise Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A shortwave trough will move from the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest
Saturday into Saturday night.  This will push a decent front through
the area during the daylight hours on Saturday. Cold air advection
behind the front will keep northern and parts of western Oklahoma a
little cooler Saturday afternoon.  Areas along and southeast of
Interstate 44 will likely not feel the cooler air until late
afternoon/early evening.

Surface winds will gusts up to 30+ mph Saturday afternoon,
especially across northwestern and west central Oklahoma.  As
afternoon humidity approaches 20-25 percent, elevated fire weather
conditions may develop for a few hours.

Even stronger cold air advection is expected Saturday night into
Sunday, as another system moves across the northern Plains and upper
Midwest.  A northerly wind will remain strong enough Saturday night
that only far northern Oklahoma may see freezing temperatures by
sunrise Sunday.  However, with a breezy northerly wind it will
certainly add a chill to the air.

A 1040 mb surface high, centered over the Dakotas, will build
southward Sunday into Sunday night.  By early Monday morning the
surface high is expected to be across southern Oklahoma into
northern Texas.  This should result in nearly ideal radiational
cooling for at least the second half of Sunday night.  A hard freeze
is anticipated for much of the area with temperatures ranging from
the lower 20s across northern Oklahoma to the upper 20s across
northern Texas far southern Oklahoma.  The duration of the freeze
will also be several hours, especially across the northern half
of Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

The surface high will settle over the area Monday, bringing another
day of cooler temperatures to the region. Temperatures will then
rebound substantially on Tuesday as a downslope-warmed airmass
advects into the region off the High Plains, with highs reaching
into the upper 60s to mid 70s by the afternoon. Above normal
temperatures are then favored to continue through the remainder of
next week as upper ridging builds over the region. No
precipitation is forecast during this period.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 953 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions will persist through the period.

Northerly winds today will shift back to the south after sunset,
while remaining weak. A stronger cold front will move into the
area shortly after sunrise on Saturday. Winds behind this front
are expected to be gusty.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  73  46  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         76  43  72  39 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  79  46  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           70  42  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     72  43  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         81  48  78  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13