787
FXUS64 KOUN 171754
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1254 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

  - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Isolated showers across north central Oklahoma have dissipated
this morning, and the associated mid-level cloud cover has
eroded. Otherwise, a weak frontal boundary has moved across the
Oklahoma Panhandle this morning, and this front should continue a
slow movement into parts of northwest Oklahoma this
afternoon/evening. Unsure if there will be enough
convergence/forcing along this boundary for an isolated storm this
afternoon/evening, but if a storm can form it will dissipate
by sunset.

A relatively strong low-level jet will develop this evening and
overnight.  Model guidance is in decent agreement of develop at
least widely scattered storms on the nose of this jet, especially
after midnight.  Storms that form will be elevated and should move
rather quickly to the northeast around 40-45 mph (or similar to the
700 mb flow).  Model soundings and some CAM guidance suggest
elevated instability may approach the 1500-2000 J/kg range with
effective shear around 50 knots.  If this environment is realized,
some larger size hail is possible (perhaps half dollars +). If this
occurs it will likely be with the initial development of storms and
mainly concentrated over north central Oklahoma.  The strong low-
level jet axis is expected to shift eastward during the overnight,
which should focus additional develop across eastern Oklahoma.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Around sunrise Saturday, a trough will begin to move across West
Texas with the entrance region of a 80-100 knot jet overspreading
parts of western north Texas.  Model guidance is fairly similar in
developing showers and some storms across West Texas during this
time with further development into western north Texas and
southwestern Oklahoma. With rather strong mid and upper level
forcing and a veered low-level flow, instability will be limited,
but perhaps enough for embedded thunder. Soundings suggest a
rather dry sub-cloud layer which may result in strong wind gusts
as the precipitation advances eastward during the morning.

It possible better forcing will overspread parts of south central
and southeastern Oklahoma before better instability across this area
weakens.  If this occurs, strong to perhaps severe storms may
develop during the late morning and early afternoon hours.  Strong
winds and hail will be the main concern.

A much stronger cold front will enter northwestern Oklahoma before
noon.  This front will move quickly south, especially during the
late afternoon/evening. It`s possible the front may encounter enough
boundary-layer moisture for a few robust thunderstorms across
northern Oklahoma through mid afternoon.

Much drier air will overspread the southern Plains Saturday night
and Sunday which will bring a decent taste of fall-like temperatures
Sunday morning.  Overnight lows across northwestern Oklahoma should
drop into the upper 30s. October 15th-22nd (on average) is when
northwestern Oklahoma experiences a first freeze during the fall.
Perfect weather is expected Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high
shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes
warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain
relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather
concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind
gusts expected by the afternoon.

Beyond Monday, a pattern shift will support temperatures still
above average, but below 80 across much of the area. As of right
now, no major precipitation chances are expected with this
upcoming pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Storms are expected to develop late this evening across northwest
OK and move east into Saturday morning, with additional storms
possible across southeast OK late Saturday morning. Strong winds
are possible near thunderstorms. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions
for much of the area, though ceilings could approach MVFR
thresholds Saturday morning. Gusty westerly winds are expected as
well Saturday morning across western into central OK behind a
pacific front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  65  78  48  70 /  20  60   0   0
Hobart OK         61  83  47  74 /  20  50   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  65  83  49  73 /  20  60   0   0
Gage OK           52  77  41  72 /  10  10   0   0
Ponca City OK     62  78  44  70 /  60  40   0   0
Durant OK         70  80  52  73 /  10  70  20   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...08