146
FXUS64 KOUN 271629
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1029 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1027 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

- Cool and dry through Friday with highs in the 50s.

- A significant cold front crosses the area Saturday, bringing
falling temperatures during the afternoon and gusty north winds.

- Below normal temperatures persist into early next week, with low
  chances (20-30%) for wintry precipitation Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Today we are thankful for a sunny thanksgiving with seasonably cool
temperatures (50s) and light winds.

As warm air advection begins to ramp up, we`ll see clouds invade
from the southwest tonight with lows in the low to mid 30s.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Friday and Saturday`s weather will be marked by an approaching
trough and associated warm air advection.

Friday`s temperatures will be much like previous days, but with
increasing clouds and breezy winds. Some drizzle or light showers
will be possible in parts of southern Oklahoma and north Texas by
afternoon, with rain chances increasing from the south overnight.

By Saturday, rain chances will have reached 60-80% over much of
central and eastern Oklahoma before gradually ending west to east.
Southern parts of the forecast area will see some warming due to the
southerly fetch of warm, moist air while northwest Oklahoma will see
highs cut off in the 40s as a strong cold front moves through.
Expect falling temperatures and gusty north winds behind the front.

Precipitation should be ended by the time freezing temperatures make
their way in behind the front. Saturday night will be quite cold
with air temperatures dropping into the teens and 20s and wind
chills into the single digits / teens.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Ensemble solutions continue to come into better agreement concerning
the early week synoptic setup and Sunday/Monday`s potential winter
weather. I`ll address the two potential impacts (cold and wintry
precipitation) in turn:

Cold: Confidence in very cold temperatures is high for Sunday and
Monday. Ensemble guidance shows lows in the teens and 20s both
mornings and highs in the 30s and 40s. It`s not extreme cold, but
enough of a sharp drop to be impactful.

Wintry Precipitation: Forecast is trending later with slightly
reduced PoPs, keeping Sunday and Sunday evening mostly dry with
precipitation chances increasing to 20-30% starting early Monday
morning. Snow chances will be highest in the northwest (30% chance
of 1"+), decreasing southeast. Freezing rain chances have come down
to less than 10%. A reasonable worst case scenario (90th percentile)
would have up to 4 inches of snow in northwest Oklahoma down to 0.5
inches along the I-44 corridor.

Tuesday, things begin to warm back up as the upper system departs.
Another trough is forecast to deepen across the western US later
next week, but model spread becomes quite large by this time so
impacts (if any) to our area remain unclear.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1027 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions and light/variable winds continue this afternoon
and into tonight. Expect winds to shift predominantly to the south
and become gusty on Friday morning with increasing stratus
(~5-7kft).


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  36  53  45  57 /   0  10  40  60
Hobart OK         36  54  46  60 /   0  10  20  20
Wichita Falls TX  38  56  48  67 /   0  20  50  40
Gage OK           33  54  40  48 /   0   0  10  10
Ponca City OK     31  53  43  52 /   0  10  50  70
Durant OK         36  57  45  63 /   0  10  90  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...01