613
FXUS64 KOUN 162323
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

  - Showers and thunderstorms are possible late Friday into
    Saturday. A few strong to severe storms are possible.

  - Above average temperatures and mainly dry conditions are
    expected late Saturday into early next week.

  - Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday and Monday

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A PV anomaly, located across southern Texas, will lift northward
into the Arklatex by early Friday morning. This will result in an
increase in mid and high clouds, especially the eastern half of
Oklahoma. The increase in cloud cover may shave a few degrees off
afternoon highs, but most areas will still warm well in the 80s.

Late this evening and overnight, a strong low-level jet will develop
across the Panhandles and will gradually veer and weaken as sunrise
approaches Friday.  There still appears to be a slight chance of
isolated showers across mainly west central and northwestern
Oklahoma, mainly after midnight.  Surface winds will be a little
stronger tonight, so overnight lows will be several degrees warmer
compared to lows this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Isolated showers will remain possible across mainly northern
Oklahoma through mid to late morning Friday.  This will mainly be
associated with scattered to broken mid-level clouds.

Early Friday morning will feature a mid and upper low lifting into
southern parts of Canada, with a positively-tilted trough
extending southwest into the central Rockies/southwestern U.S. As
rather strong mid and upper flow approaches the Pacific Northwest,
this trough will shift eastward and approach western Oklahoma by
early Saturday morning. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary will
approach and move into parts of northwestern Oklahoma late Friday
afternoon and evening. As lift increases ahead of the approaches
trough, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop with better chances across western and northern Oklahoma
overnight. Modest elevated instability around 750-1500 J/kg and
increasing cloud-layer shear may result in a few strong to severe
storms overnight, with hail the main concern.

Scattered showers and a few storms may continue to develop and move
across Oklahoma after sunrise Saturday. As the trough shifts
eastward, most of the precipitation should be confined to eastern
parts of the state. With the low-level flow veered, much drier air
will advect into the western third/half of Oklahoma during the
morning and afternoon. By early to mid afternoon, a stronger cold
front will enter northern Oklahoma and will move quickly to the
south. Moisture pooling near the front, could result in isolated
showers/storms with a better chance across southeastern Oklahoma,
where upper 60 dewpoints may remain. This area will likely have
the best chance of seeing a few strong to severe storms mainly
during the late afternoon early/mid evening. Much drier air will
overspread all of Oklahoma and northern Texas by late evening.
This will bring more fall-like temperatures for early Sunday
morning and day.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Much cooler temperatures, albeit still above average, are
expected Sunday behind the frontal passage.

Warmer temperatures will return on Monday as the surface high
shifts to the east and lee troughing along the Rockies promotes
warm air advection. This return flow is expected to remain
relatively dry, so we will keep an eye out for fire weather
concerns across the area, especially with 15-25 mph sustained wind
gusts expected by the afternoon.

Beyond Monday, a pattern shift will support temperatures still
above average, but below 80 across much of the area. As of right
now, no major precipitation chances are expected with this
upcoming pattern.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions will continue with southerly winds becoming gusty
once again after sunrise on Friday. A cold front will slowly move
into northwest Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon which will result in a
wind shift to the N/NW at KWWR before 00Z 18 Oct. Scattered
thunderstorm development is expected over parts of north and
western Oklahoma late evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  82  63  86  67 /   0   0   0  30
Hobart OK         85  62  87  63 /   0   0  10  30
Wichita Falls TX  86  63  89  67 /   0   0   0  10
Gage OK           81  60  84  55 /   0  20  10  30
Ponca City OK     84  63  87  63 /   0   0  10  70
Durant OK         85  64  87  69 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...06
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...01