208
FXUS64 KOUN 122255
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
455 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

 - Unseasonably warmer temperatures will persist through early
   next week.

 - Warming trend peaks Friday into Saturday which could tie or
   break temperature records for both days.

 - Rain chances return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

A weak cold front stretching down from a system moving across the
Great Lakes Region is expected to wash out later this afternoon
in southern Oklahoma. Mild yet above average temperatures for
today in the lower 70s before a warming trend. Northwest flow
aloft will continue to increase dense Cirrus through tonight
across our area all originating from dirty ridging across the
Western United States. Southerly winds will gradually make a
return tonight along with increasing gulf moisture. Although light
across most of our area, the south-southeasterly surface winds
may be ample to produce advection fog by mid-morning across parts
of our southern CWA. Latest DESI ensemble runs project near 50%
probability for fog across southeast Oklahoma where moisture
advection and winds may be strongest to a 20-30% across the
remaining aforementioned areas. For this forecast will add patchy
fog mainly across southcentral through southeast Oklahoma toward
mid-morning Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

Weak upper ridging in the tropical jet out west will be building
in over the Southern Plains while increasing southerly low-level
flow will be starting a warming trend on Thursday into Friday. By
Friday we could see widespread highs in the lower to mid 80s
across all but northern Oklahoma and could potentially tie or
break a few temperature records for that date.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1157 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

We continue to trend toward a slower trough/cutoff low ejection late
this weekend into early next week. In practical terms, this has
decreased the chance for precipitation across our area and also
means that Saturday is looking like another day of potential record
heat. In fact, our gridded forecast now shows Saturday to be the
warmest day of the upcoming period. We may even push 90 degrees in
parts of western north Texas. Once again, most of the area should
reside within the moist sector, so fire weather concerns are
mitigated. With that said, we will have to watch the dryline`s
progression.

Forecast models are coming into increasing agreement in showing the
upper-level low being completely sheared apart before it even
arrives in our area. This has produced the somewhat comical trend
over the last several days where operational guidance has faded from
considering a possible heavy rain/flood event over the weekend in
southern Oklahoma to an event where our gridded forecast fails to
exceed a 30 percent chance of rain anywhere in our area. While rain
chances over the weekend have decreased, there also is not much of a
sign of a Gulf-scouring cold front, so we`ll continue to monitor the
middle to latter portions of the month for potential storm chances.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 455 PM CST Wed Nov 12 2025

VFR conditions will continue areawide this evening before some
(low) potential for lowered category across portions of
central/southern Oklahoma and north Texas towards daybreak on
Thursday morning.

In the meantime, generally light southeast surface winds and
passing areas of high clouds are expected to continue. After ~10Z
Thursday, coincident with modest moisture advection across the
Red River Valley, areas of fog and stratus may emerge. Highest
confidence currently resides at KDUA, though at least near-MVFR
conditions are possible as far north/west at the Interstate 44
corridor. This potential will be closely monitored at forthcoming
updates.

Prevailing conditions by Thursday afternoon will feature clear
(or clearing) skies and occasionally gusty southerly surface
winds.

Safe travels!

Ungar

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  48  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         44  78  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  48  81  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           40  76  41  79 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     43  75  51  77 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         52  79  60  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...68
SHORT TERM...68
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...09