


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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221 FXUS64 KOUN 091145 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 645 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 631 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 - Patchy fog may develop early this morning, mainly west of I-35. - Warm and dry weather expected through the weekend. - Low (20-30%) chance for rain/storms to return across portions of northwest Oklahoma early next week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 An upper ridge will become centered over western Texas as it amplifies along a north-south axis across the Rockies through the day today. The 700mb ridge will be centered over southern Oklahoma and the surface high will be extending westward with a return to weak south-southeasterly surface flow. A surge of low-level moisture as the ridge extends southwestward will bring a potential for a stratus deck of low clouds to develop across west-central Oklahoma early this morning, mostly along or west of the I-35 corridor. A few localized areas of patchy to dense fog may develop, but overall widespread fog is unlikely. Any low clouds should break through the afternoon hours with temperatures rising into the 80s and approaching the lower 90s. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 A gradual warming trend is expected into the weekend as the upper ridge begins to slide eastward over the Plains while the next trough axis moves into the Pacific Northwest. Warm air advection and subsidence will give way to a hot and dry start to the weekend. Despite temperatures being nearly 10 degrees above normal, record temperatures are not expected. Records for this time of year at all three climate sites still remain about 10 degrees above the forecast highs, which are in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Lee cyclogenesis will develop across eastern Colorado Saturday with an increased pressure gradient over the forecast area. Expect warm breezy south winds Saturday, which may graciously give some relief to the heat. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Sunday will feature some of the warmest temperatures in the forecast period as the low-level thermal ridge is pushed eastward over Oklahoma and high temperatures rise into the lower to mid-90s. The trough over the Pacific Northwest will swing across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains Sunday. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will bring the return of Pacific moisture to the Southern and Central Plains. Widespread breezy south winds will persist through the day before a cold front Sunday night into Monday morning. There remains some uncertainty with how far south the front will push and ensemble guidance generally brings the front about halfway through Oklahoma with cooler post-frontal temperatures in the upper 70s Monday and warm 80s to lower 90s ahead of the front. Upper level lift and moisture Sunday afternoon may generate some afternoon showers and storms with additional low chances overnight Sunday into Monday across northern Oklahoma with the passing cold front. The remainder of the week will feature a longwave trough across the western half of the CONUS with several embedded shortwaves phasing eastward into the Plains. Thus, mid-level moisture will continue to be present with southwesterly flow continuing aloft. Model variations in how far east the upper ridge builds next week and strength/timing/track of each wave will play a significant role in fronts (potentially cooler temperatures) and precipitation chances. Despite the pattern change, heat remains the main story at this time with above-normal temperatures to continue through much of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 Overnight fog and low ceilings have more or less played nicely over the past few hours. While some low clouds and lower ceilings have been observed sporadically across western Oklahoma and western north Texas, the lowest visibility reductions have remained in the Texas panhandle. Except for a few transient spots, most of the day will see VFR conditions. Winds will pick up a bit in northwest Oklahoma, where Woodward will see the the strongest winds, gusting to over 20 knots by the afternoon hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 83 61 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 86 62 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 87 60 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 85 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 84 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 85 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...21