169
FXUS64 KOUN 081103
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
503 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

 - A significant cold front brings below-average temperatures to
   the area on Sunday and Monday, with a hard freeze Monday
   morning.

 - Dry conditions persist for at least the next seven days.

 - Elevated fire weather possible this afternoon and Tuesday
   afternoon.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Some high cloud cover tonight as the jetstream moves more directly
overhead, especially north of I-40. Otherwise expecting clear and
mostly calm conditions with winds gradually aligning from the south.

The long-awaited cold front that will bring us a taste of real fall
weather arrives during the day today. Its arrival will coincide with
a belt of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow from the northwest on the periphery
of a shortwave trough across the central Plains. Such strongly
forced fronts often arrive ahead of schedule and sweep through
rapidly. Thus, we`ll have to watch closely for any need to adjust
timing, but right now it does look like the cold front will reach
northwest Oklahoma a little after daybreak and will take most of the
day to clear through our full area.

The prefrontal airmass will continue to be unseasonably warm with
highs reaching near 80 along the Red River. The postfrontal airmass
will be cooler (albeit not all that cold - afternoon temperatures
will likely remain above 60 at all spots) - but also breezier, with
wind gusts from the north of about 25-35 mph.

Northerly winds will continue overnight. The reservoir of true
continental polar air that is currently constrained within Canada
will finally start to work southward into the area with steadily
falling temperatures through daybreak. Partly cloudy conditions will
continue.

Meister

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Monday night)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Steady cold advection during the day on Sunday in addition to clear
skies and a fresh northerly breeze - you really can`t ask for more
canonically fall-like weather than this. Our current forecast shows
highs failing to reach 50 degrees along and north of a line from
Woodward to OKC. For Oklahoma City, this would be the first colder-
than-50 high we have seen since March 8. Wind chills will drop into
the 30s around sunset in northern Oklahoma.

In a classic bit of cold-air good-news, bad-news, the wind will
slack off tomorrow night with an impressive 1036 mb high stretching
across the entirety of the Great Plains from Texas to North Dakota.
The good news is that the weakening of winds will prevent wind
chills from dropping into the single digits or colder. However, such
clear, calm conditions are favorable for temperatures to bottom out,
and that is what we expect Monday morning. Widespread lows in the
20s will occur, and cold-prone spots in northern Oklahoma have a
good chance of getting their lows into the teens.

This is about the point that the troughing regime across the Great
Lakes will maximize in strength, with an intense 525 dam low across
Michigan during the day on Monday. Subsequently, as this low becomes
more vertically stacked, it will start to feel the presence of the
next jet streak in the sequence coming across southern Canada. That
kickout will see us remain within the northwest flow regime during
the day on Monday, but with significant height rises. A rapid return
to lee troughing across the High Plains will occur with temperatures
downsloping into the upper 50s there, and the low 50s closer to I-35.

Meister

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 1237 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

As quickly as fall is going to sweep in here, by Tuesday it will be
nothing but a memory as anomalous warmth builds back in for the
remainder of the week. The driver for the warmth will be a return of
highly amplified ridging across the western half of the country with
the jet migrating northward during the day on Tuesday. It looks like
the main weather story on Tuesday besides the rapid warm-up will be
winds as we end up in a fairly sharp pressure gradient between the
departing surface high and the lee trough. This will also likely
lead to elevated fire weather in newly dormant fuels.

After that, we enter back into the same old pattern of northwest
flow, the jet remaining to our north, and daily oscillations between
southerly winds and weak cold fronts without any cold source airmass
to our north. We continue to see no chance of rain through next
Friday at least.

Meister

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours. A cold front
is currently located across northwest Kansas and will arrive in
northwest Oklahoma by about 14-15Z. Frontal passage will occur
through the entire CWA by 0Z. Behind it, there will be a period of
gusty northerly winds lasting through late afternoon. Peak gusts
will be in the 25 knot range. Winds will drop to at or a little
above 10 knots from the north tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  69  39  49  25 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         71  39  55  25 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  77  42  57  28 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           64  33  51  23 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     67  35  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         78  45  56  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     OKZ004>048-050>052.

TX...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...04