359
FXUS64 KOUN 072346
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
546 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

 - Cooler day today behind a front before dry and seasonable
   weather into the middle of this week.

 - A strong cold front Thursday may bring a return to chilly
   below-normal temperatures heading into next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A cool/cold and low-impact weather day is underway across the area.
Our prolonged episode of wintertime fog has finally come to a
close, as a drier airmass continues to settle across the area.

Midday satellite reveals a shield of stratus entrenched across
portions of northern and central Oklahoma. As a result, today
will likely be a "what you see is what you get" type of day when
it comes to afternoon and early evening temperatures here. Gradual
erosion on the western periphery of the cloud bank is ongoing and
expected into the afternoon, allowing for temperatures to trickle
into the 50s across portions of western Oklahoma and western-noth
Texas.

The overnight period looks to be rather cold, with temperatures
dipping into the low-20s across western and northern Oklahoma,
especially in valleys/low spots. Patchy fog will also be possible
here towards daybreak Monday, though no widespread or prolonged
visibility reductions are currently anticipated.

Ungar

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Monday continues to trend ever so cooler, as the forecast area
will still feel influence from a slowly departing surface high.
Combined with a signal for at least scattered/broken coverage of
low clouds towards midday across central and eastern portions of
the area, afternoon temperatures may end up remaining in the
upper-40s here. Further west, where a warmer mid-level airmass
will begin to arrive, a few 60 degree readings are likely.

Sensible conditions will be notably warmer by Tuesday, as the
previous synoptic system and surface reflection become more removed
from the area. A gusty south-southwesterly wind appears probable by
the afternoon, as a surface pressure gradient strengthens
coincident with another upper system emerging east of the
Rockies. This system looks to push a (weak) trailing surface front
through the area beginning late Tuesday evening. The chance for
precipitation is nil with this feature.

Ungar

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 1236 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

The extended forecast continues to be dry with persistent
northwesterly flow aloft and embedded shortwaves with rounds of cool
Canadian air digging into the CONUS. The midweek will feature
above seasonable temperatures. A shortwave with a strong jet to
our north will bring a front through Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across the forecast area with much of the colder air
keeping to the north. Another shortwave will bring a front through
Thursday, but this time a strong jet streak of 150 knots up to
250mb will give way to deep cold air pushed southward into much of
the eastern half of the CONUS by the weekend. Temperatures Friday
could be nearly 20 degrees colder than Thursday and persist
through the weekend. Ensemble guidance continues to show a large
spread in temperatures for Friday from the mid 30s to lower 50s.
Cluster analysis reveals about 50 percent of the models lie near
the 50th percentile of the NBM (current forecast). Meanwhile, the
other 50 percent is split with one cluster having a strong warm
signal with temperatures leaning closer to the 90th percentile of
NBM, while the other cluster is slightly cooler and leaning
towards the 25th percentile of the NBM. With still a wide
variation of outcomes with the ensembles, a lot is likely to
change given Friday is still five days out. Trends will continue
to be monitored for a unified solution.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Expecting the overcast stratus across central Oklahoma to
eventually being scattering by 03Z with terminals KOKC & KOUN
improving to a VFR category and perhaps an hour later for terminal
KDUA. Terminals KPNC & KSWO will likely remain in a MVFR category
through 07Z then improve to a VFR category between 07-11Z when
the stratus scatters there. Patchy freezing fog from radiational
cooling will be possible toward 12Z across central & western OK
which could degrade a few of our terminals to an MVFR category
while denser fog more localized with lower visibilities could
result in further degradation to an IFR category. With
temperatures falling below freezing, any denser fog could freeze
on surfaces. Any radiational fog that develops is expected to
have burned off by 15Z. Beyond 15Z all terminals will remain in a
VFR category through the end of the forecast period. Surface
winds are expected to light & variable tonight but shift out of
the south by 17Z at 5-10 kts through Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  27  50  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         25  53  30  63 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  28  53  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           26  56  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     24  48  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         30  50  34  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...09
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...68