329
FXUS64 KOUN 060542
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

  - Rain returns to the forecast this morning thru Tuesday (mainly
    northwest/northern OK).

  - A cold front brings cooler temperatures on Tuesday.

  - Warm and dry weather then returns for the second half of the
    week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Showers and a few thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the
panhandles into Kansas associated with a cold front making its
way slowly south and eastward. Expect this activity to move into
northwest Oklahoma through the morning, with chances for scattered
showers and storms continuing in these areas through tonight.
Highs today will once again reach into the upper 80s to near 90
across much of the area, with the exception being northwest
Oklahoma where clouds and rain will keep highs in the upper 70s to
low 80s.

Ware

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

The cold front will surge southward Tuesday morning as a shortwave
traverses southern Kansas. Forcing from this wave will quickly shift
eastward during the day Tuesday, with rain chances across northern
Oklahoma dwindling through the day as it does so. The temperature
forecast is a little tricky, as there is likely to be a decent north-
south gradient across the area. The NAM in particular is much colder
with highs Tuesday only in the mid to upper 50s across the northern
half of the area vs. mid 60s to mid 70s on most other guidance.
Nudged highs down slightly compared to NBM but didn`t go as far as
the NAM at this point. Much warmer temperatures are expected
further south, with highs in the mid to potentially upper 80s for
areas near the Red River.

Can`t rule out a few light showers Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning across western OK within weak WAA regime, otherwise expect
dry conditions during the day Wednesday. Temperatures will rebound
quickly by Wednesday afternoon as sunshine returns and upper ridging
builds into the area. Highs should return to the 70s and 80s with
light east or southeast winds.

Ware

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Above average temperatures are forecast late week into the
weekend as the upper ridge expands across the southern Plains,
with highs running about 10 degrees above average across much of
the area. No fronts are forecast during this period and
precipitation chances look slim underneath the ridge. Some
ensembles suggest we could see a breakdown of the ridge towards
early next week and a return of rain chances, but model spread
increases by this time so confidence is low on this scenario.

Ware

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected at most TAF sites through the period.
A wind shift is expected tomorrow evening after sunset as a cold
front begins to move into the area late tomorrow night. Showers
will be possible through much of the morning at KWWR. As the cold
front moves in towards the end of the period, MVFR ceilings will
be possible. Highest confidence for MVFR ceilings within this TAF
period is at KWWR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  87  61  76  58 /   0  10  10   0
Hobart OK         89  59  77  57 /   0  10  10  10
Wichita Falls TX  89  62  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           80  53  66  53 /  30  50  30  10
Ponca City OK     88  59  72  54 /  10  20  10   0
Durant OK         88  66  87  63 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...13