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FXUS63 KPAH 082009
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
209 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will moderate back to near normal values Tuesday
  and Wednesday.

- A couple weak disturbances will bring small precipitation
  chances of the Evansville Tri-State Wednesday morning and
  again Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Precipitation will be liquid on Wednesday morning, but may
  begin as a rain/snow mixing Thursday night before changing to
  rain. No accumulation is expected.

- A period of very chilly temperatures are forecast this weekend
  into early next week. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees below
  normal, and single digit wind chill values are possible during
  the morning hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Persistent H5 troughing over the eastern CONUS will briefly
transition to a more active and milder W-NW zonal pattern. This
will bring a moderation in temperatures back to near normal
values on Tuesday into Wednesday. Two weak disturbances within
this flow will bring schc to chc PoPs to the EVV Tri-State on
Wednesday morning and again Thursday night into Friday morning.
Thermal profiles will be supportive of just light rain on
Wednesday. However, precipitation may start as a light rain/snow
mix Thursday night before switching to all rain Friday morning.
As of this time, no accumulating snow is expected.

We will transition back to very chilly conditions Friday through
next weekend as lobe of very dry Arctic air becomes dislodged
and swings through the northern Great Plains and Great Lakes
region. Latest model guidance has backed off on having the
region see the full brunt of this cold air mass. It now looks to
be more of glancing blow. Forecast temperatures this weekend,
while still forecast to be 10-15 degrees below normal, have
trended up about 5-10 degrees from yesterday`s forecast values.
This brings this high temperatures in the upper 20s to lower
30s this weekend with overnight lows in the teens. Morning wind
chill values will still fall into single digits over much of the
region as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

MVFR low stratus will continue to gradually erode from west to
east this afternoon, with clearing expected at EVV and OWB
between 20-22z. VFR conditions are expected thereafter for the
rest of the forecast period. As high pressure briefly centers
over the region, ongoing NW winds around 4-8 kts will will
become light and variable after 00z Tuesday. By 06-12z, winds
will shift to the southwest as return flow increases, sustained
at 8-12 kts with gusts up to 15-20 kts possible after 12z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS