672
FXUS63 KPAH 152320
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
620 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The rest of the work week will be warm and dry.

- Showers and thunderstorm chances return this weekend, with the
  best chances at some point on Saturday. There is some
  potential for strong to severe storms in the afternoon and
  evening. Considerable uncertainty remains in Saturday`s
  forecast.

- Cooler weather is expected Sunday into next week, and a
  slight chance of showers returns for Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure aloft will progress steadily eastward across the
Quad State through Friday, while surface high pressure continues
to nose westward into the region. This will result in a
continuation of warm and dry conditions.

By Friday night, south winds will return and surface dewpoints
will begin to climb into the lower 60s by Saturday morning. If
the Quad State is unmuddled by morning convection, those south
winds could gust 20-30 mph with mixing on Saturday.

A strong storm system is still expected to move eastward from
the Plains into the Mississippi Valley from Saturday into
Saturday night. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty in
how convection will evolve with this storm system, but showers
and thunderstorms are a good bet at some point over all portions
of the Quad State.

There is still potential for a round of sub-severe showers and
maybe a few thunderstorms moving east across the area Saturday
morning. If this occurs and is late enough, enough instability
could develop ahead of it over the Kentucky Pennyrile region to
support some strong to near-severe storms there. Shear at this
time will be increasing, but will be marginal at best to support
severe storms.

The best chance of severe storms will be in the late afternoon
and most likely the evening hours over southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois, as the main storm system and cold front
approach and eventually move through the region. Instability
will be the main limiting factor in this time frame, as 0-3km
and 0-6km shear become favorable for severe storms. The storm
mode is also uncertain, but given the limited instability,
damaging winds will likely be the primary concern, regardless of
mode.

Stormtotal QPF is now down in the 1-1.5" range and that may be
overdone. Only if areas get two significant rounds will those
higher end numbers be likely, and at this point that looks to
be rather isolated.

The front may hold up over west Kentucky into Sunday morning, so
some chances of showers may linger, especially near the
Tennessee border. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected Sunday
through Monday with noticeably cooler air. With a nearly zonal
flow pattern aloft, another storm system may impact the Quad
State at some point Monday night through Tuesday. There is quite
a range of possibilities in the medium range guidance, anywhere
from a dry cold front, to something similar to Saturday`s
system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through this TAF cycle, aside from the
possibility of some late night fog around KCGI. Primarily clear
skies through the period as well, with the exception of a band
of BKN 5-10kft clouds that may sink into the EVV/OWB areas
overnight into the morning tomorrow. Light easterly winds
tonight will increase to around 6-8 kts during the day on
Thursday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...SP