174
FXUS63 KPAH 021813
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1213 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect early this
  morning for a light wintry mix, including minor snowfall
  accumulations that may induce hazardous travel conditions as
  temperatures remain at or below the freezing mark.

- Cold, winter-like temperatures hold thru the entire week with
  lows each night falling into the teens and 20s. Single digit
  wind chills are forecast late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri
  and southern Illinois.

- It`s mostly dry after this system departs, despite small
  precipitation chances this weekend and again early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Our system will effectively complete its sweep early this morning as
the surface reflected low shoots east and the deformation zone
phased with the broader warm sector overrunning pcpn soon follows
its departure. So far, it looks like a good swath of 1-2"
occurred/is occurring within the more heavily banded pcpn, with
lesser amounts outside of that...esp north and west. Surface temps
are all now at freezing or below, so even as snow melt has occurred,
still slushy roads may also have some icy slick patches develop at
times as well...especially bridges/overpasses and the like. And
even with some afternoon sunshine, temps will struggle to get
much above freezing today, with highs only in the 30s
everywhere. It will essentially be a `how to deal with what`s
fallen` start to the day as the precipitating aspect of the
event, for all practical purposes, looks like it will be done
by 10-11z, perhaps earlier with current trending.

After a 1021 mb surface high ridges across the FA and TN Valley
later today and tonight, another high about 10 mb stronger comes in
and helps blast a reinforcing surge of arctic cold air across the FA
Wednesday night-Thursday. So after a cool night tonight with around
20 degree lows, we recover into the 40s Wednesday as the first high
shifts east, before plunging again into the 20s Wednesday night,
with some upper teens in our northern reaches; north winds hold
close to 10 mph, dropping wind chills into the single digits in our
northwest counties on our CWA borders for parts of SEMO/SWIL. The
cold sticks around thru the day Thursday with highs in the 20s
north, and struggling to top the freezing mark south. And even with
some air mass modification with time, below normal temps more
winter-like with 30s/40s for highs and teens/20s for lows holds
right on thru the weekend. There are some glancing blows for
pops in the slight chance range but it`s generally a dry period
save for these spotty chances early weekend, late weekend, and
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Main questions continue to be when the MVFR cloud deck scatters
outs. Bufr soundings would suggest the clouds will scatter out
by the evening for CGI/PAH/MVN but may stick around through the
night at EVV and OWB. By Wednesday morning, skies should clear
out across the entire area. Light winds expected tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$