195
FXUS63 KPAH 301917
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
117 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning. Portions of southeast Missouri, southern
  Illinois, and western Kentucky are now under a Winter Weather
  Advisory for up to an inch of snow/sleet and a light glaze of
  ice. The Tuesday morning commute will likely be impacted.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week
  with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper
  teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed
  by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.
  Uncertainty remains high in the precipitation type.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A 1038 mb sfc high pressure over the Dakotas will build downstream
tonight, ushering in even colder and drier air across the FA.
Nighttime lows are progged to fall well into the 20s despite an
increase in cloud cover. While most of Monday will also remain
dry, the main focus is a winter storm system that will bring
minor impacts to portions of the FA Monday evening through
Tuesday morning as a 500 mb shortwave trough over Nevada/Utah
ejects east across the Plains. By Monday evening, a positively
tilted trough becomes more neutral and phases with northern
stream energy. Robust PVA combined with upper level diverge
associated with the left exit region of a 150 kt jet max at 250
mb will cause an influx of moisture, supporting a light mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

Unlike the previous system, cold air will already be in place
favoring frozen pcpn. The one caveat remains far southeast
portions of western Kentucky where pcpn will start off as
primarily plain rain, ending as a brief wintry mix. With that
said, there still remains some model uncertainty as a 3 hour
difference in the northern and southern stream phasing will
have major implications on pcpn type and spatial coverage. The
12z GFS and ECMWF have trended colder/wetter, now favoring a
brief wintry mix transitioning to all snow along a narrow axis
that runs from far southeast Missouri into northeast portions of
western Kentucky due to dynamic cooling associated with
frontogenesis. If correct, the burst of snow would be short in
duration around midnight as saturation does not last long in
the DGZ, favoring more rimming with 7:1 to 10:1 SLRs. Meanwhile,
the NAM and RGEM are slower with the phasing, favoring more
freezing rain and sleet in this region, with an axis of snow
focused more north across the I-64 corridor. In between, dry
air and subsidence results in very little QPF due to scattered
disorganized pcpn, especially across most of SEMO and far
southern Illinois. Both scenarios would result in a axis of 1 to
2 inches of snow/sleet, but marginal temperatures would mean
significantly less on paved surfaces.

While some forecast questions still need to be worked out, have gone
ahead and issued a Winter Weather Advisory Monday night into Tuesday
morning for portions of southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and
western Kentucky where confidence is the highest for a glaze of ice
and up to an inch of snow/sleet. The main concern is the potential
for roads to become slick, especially on colder elevated surfaces
such as bridges and overpasses that will impact the Tuesday morning
commute. Sidewalks are also likely to become slippery if left
untreated. Any pcpn is progged to quickly taper off around
daybreak, but brief patchy freezing drizzle cannot be ruled out
in a few locations with model soundings still indicating some
residual low-level moisture.

The flow aloft turns more zonal through the middle of the week with
another sfc high pressure building across the FA, keeping temperatures
below normal with lows each night ranging from the upper teens
to mid 20s. Another disturbance is progged to approach Thursday
night into Friday, but confidence is low in precipitation type
as model guidance currently shows a large spread in the track.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

As surface high pressure translates eastward from the central
Plains to eastern Great Lakes, surface winds will veer from the
W/NW this afternoon, to the N overnight to the E by Monday
morning. Winds this afternoon will be sustained at 8-12 kts with
gusts of 15-20 kts before relaxing to 4-8 kts overnight into
Monday morning.

SCT-BKN decks with passes around 2500-3500ft will impact most
terminals through this afternoon, with lingering MVFR
restrictions expected through 04-08z near MVN, OWB, and MVN. As
drier easterly flow arrives, cloud bases will lift to 7-10kft
after 12-15z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for ILZ090-094.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for ILZ091.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for MOZ112-114.
IN...None.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for KYZ001>006.
     Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Monday night to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for KYZ007>011-013>016-018>021.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DWS