438
FXUS63 KPAH 190459
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Almost daily storm chances will be highest this weekend during
  peak heating. Locally heavy rains repeating over the same
  areas causing flooding, frequent lightning, and gusty winds
  from an isolated stronger storm will be the primary storm
  hazards.

- A more prolonged and increasingly dangerous heatwave is
  expected next week with daily heat indices of 105 to 115.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

The surface boundary is still identifiable as it lays across the
heart of the PAH FA. It serves as a potential focusing mechanism
for updrafts to get going with diurnal heating. Satellite shows
lower clouds hanging tougher on the cool side of the boundary.
Storms thru the weekend will all have more or less the same
ingredients of high volume moisture availability with weak
overall shear, and instability may be or become high at times,
most likely during peak heating. As a result, we anticipate more
of the same...heavy rain potential from storms but flooding
should be localized where storms repeat or hover over the same
areas, esp areas that have had more rain recently. Frequent
lightning and isolated gusty winds are also potential storm
hazards.

Pattern metamorphosis heading into and thru next week will
project to us as an increasingly hot and humid time period with
daily storm chances gradually diminishing toward a drier overall
regime as the week wears on. This prolonged duration of high
heat and humidity will ultimately need headlines, but pending
completion of collaboration, it appears some whitening of its
timing eyes here may be preferred at this writing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Outside of isolated to widely scattered convection overnight,
light MVFR fog is expected to develop around daybreak. Additional
thunderstorm activity is possible during the morning hours, but
a better chance will be during the afternoon hours at MVN, EVV,
and OWB. CGI and PAH will have lower, but not zero,
convection risks. Storm coverage will again diminish after 24z
and the loss of daytime heating. Light and variable winds will
pick up from the SW around 5-10 kts Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DWS