273
FXUS63 KPAH 231138
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
538 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread dense fog over much of the Quad State early this
  morning will linger well after daybreak before dissipating. A
  Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 9 AM CST.

- Another round of rain is expected Monday through Tuesday.
  Rainfall amounts between a third of an inch and one inch are
  expected.

- Temperatures trend 5 to 10 degrees below normal for Wednesday
  through Friday, including Thanksgiving.

- The holiday weekend will start out dry, but showers are
  expected to overspread the Quad State mainly mainly Saturday
  night through next Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As we speculated yesterday, dense fog has indeed developed and
a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for most of the Quad State.
Areas near and north of I-64 may stay out of the Advisory. A
solid area of low clouds over southeast Missouri is making it
difficult to determine how far west of the Mississippi River the
dense fog exists, but for now the Mississippi River counties
either have METARs, webcams, or satellite imagery indicating
dense fog in those areas. As the low clouds continue east of the
River, the ceilings will basically be at the ground with dense
fog.

The biggest questions for the fog are how long it will take to
burn off and will it lift into a pesky layer of low clouds. The
NBM and NAM indicate that possibility. Of course, this would
hold down heating. We have already come down a few degrees,
especially over the eastern half of the area, but further
downward adjustments may be necessary later today. The 15Z
expiration for the Advisory looks good, so there are no changes
to be made to the Advisory at this time.

Our next round of rain will arrive on Monday as expected. There
continue to be some differences in how quickly it will arrive
over southeast Missouri Monday, but it will spread over the
entire area quickly in the late afternoon and evening. As for
trends, a bit earlier onset is indicated Monday, and the rain or
showers may linger longer through Tuesday in the east. Some
guidance even keeps some light QPF in the east until the front
arrives Tuesday night. QPF is now 0.75"-1.00" over most of the
region, with amounts dropping off rather dramatically to the
northwest. Areas from Perryville Missouri to Fairfield Illinois
may not see more than a quarter inch.

The cold front is still expected to pass Tuesday night. This
will push any lingering light showers east of the area, leaving
dry conditions over the Quad State Wednesday through at least
Friday. Temperatures will drop around 5 degrees below normal by
Wednesday, and closer to 10 degrees below normal for
Thanksgiving and Friday.

Guidance continues to show significant spread with respect to
the arrival of our next chance of rain. In general, the 00Z
guidance is a bit faster than 24 hours ago, so we have some low
chance PoPs spreading east over the region through the day
Saturday. The better chances will hold off until late Saturday
night through next Sunday. The NBM QPF is well over an inch in
this time period, but there is currently no thunder mentioned.
The 00Z ensembles indicate that there could be some instability
reaching the area next Sunday night into next Monday. Although
the details need to be ironed out, the holiday weekend is likely
to end on a wet note.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A combination of dense fog and LIFR ceilings will impact all
sites through the morning, although it may take an hour or two
for the low ceilings to reach KEVV and KOWB. Confidence in how
long these lowered conditions will last is low. Leaned heavily
on the LAMP guidance which is very pessimistic, holding onto the
low ceilings through the entire forecast period at KCGI and
KPAH. Elsewhere, while conditions may become VFR this afternoon,
redevelopment of IFR or lower ceilings is expected tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ081>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ076-087-
     111-112.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for INZ085>088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...DRS