332
FXUS63 KPAH 011120
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
520 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix will impact the region Monday evening into
  Tuesday morning, with Winter Weather Advisories for portions
  of the Quad State for snow and wintry mix concerns, which may
  have impacts lingering into the Tuesday morning commute.

- Temperatures will remain below normal through the entire week
  with lows each night falling well into the 20s and even upper
  teens in some locations.

- Dry weather will return for the middle of the week, followed
  by another chance of precipitation Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

On the synoptic scale, fairly zonal flow is positioned to the
east as high pressure is moving through the Midwest. A
positively tilted mid-level trough is positioned over the Front
Range this morning with a mid-level disturbance quickly
crossing the Central Plains today. Low pressure is organizing
off the Texas coast with moisture from this system pulled into
the Deep South. Locally, low clouds ahead of the Plains system
are tracking through early this morning.

The main weather feature for the week remains the wintry mix
event this evening through early Tuesday. The Plains system
approaches northern portions of SEMO/SIL late this afternoon
with snow. Also late afternoon, moisture from the south is
pulled northeastward into southern portions of SEMO and far SW
Kentucky initially as mostly rain. A 150 kt jet streak
approaches and is positioned such that the Quad State is in the
left exit region this evening, favoring development. Many models
fill in the gap between the two areas of precipitation during
the evening hours. Areas near the Ohio River and to the south
have potential for mixing of sleet and freezing rain (with
limited ice accumulation) in the evening hours. With the greater
potential for some mixing of ice, which can prove treacherous
even in small amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory remains for
most of Western Kentucky and nearby portions of SEMO/SIL. A
Winter Weather Advisory was added for SWIN due to greater
potential to reach 2 inches of snow as the trough has more time
to phase and produce higher totals by then. An SPS was continued
for SIL due to greater uncertainty in snowfall, as multiple
models produce dry air subsidence that sharply limits QPF.
Several models produce a SW to NE oriented line of greater
frontogenetical forcing that can produce a quick burst of an
inch an hour rates in the evening, but confidence is limited in
positioning of this feature.

Models have sped up departure of this system, with
precipitation ending before sunrise. Lingering impacts can
remain through the Tuesday morning commute. High pressure moves
through on Tuesday with any areas with snow cover struggling to
reach freezing. Southerly flow Wednesday lifts temperatures to
near 40 which should help clear up snow cover. A cold frontal
passage moves through Wednesday night with the parent low way to
the northeast, likely keeping conditions dry locally.

Models are still rather divided as to a late week system which
has a bit of similarity to the early week system as a mid-level
trough moves across the Plains and a system is off the Gulf
Coast bringing rain to the Deep South. At the moment the
forecast is a bit warmer than the early week system and the NBM
begins the system as a wintry mix Friday changing to rain later
in the day, but ensemble spread is very high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 521 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR clouds cover much of the Quad State but are pulling back
from the east as drier air pushes in. Cigs improve to VFR
midday. Winds are fairly light through the forecast period. A
wintry mix is projected with snow moving in from the west and a
mix of rain, freezing rain, and sleet from the south this
evening. Vsby drops accompany heavier precipitation and cigs
down to IFR are projected for the evening/overnight hours.
Freezing rain/sleet mixing are more likely along a line from
roughly Sikeston, Missouri to Madisonville, Kentucky.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for ILZ087-091.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for ILZ090-094.
MO...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for MOZ112-114.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ this evening
     to 9 AM CST /10 AM EST/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Tuesday for KYZ007>011-013>016-018>021.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST
     Tuesday for KYZ001>006.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ATL
DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...ATL