600
FXUS63 KPAH 231932
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog, possibly widespread expected tonight into
  early Monday.

- Rain is expected Monday through Tuesday with amounts of a
  quarter inch to 1 inch.

- Dry and colder temperatures are expected Wednesday through
  Friday.

- Another round of rain possible this weekend, mainly late
  Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows overcast skies over much
of the forecast area. Portions of southeast Missouri, and
western Kentucky are starting to see some clearing however. The
low stratus and fog is due to moisture trapped beneath a strong
inversion just above 950mb. Areas beneath the cloud cover have
seen nearly steady to slight temperature rises into the mid to
upper 40s while areas that have cleared are seeing temperatures
to almost 60 degrees. Model soundings and planviews suggest
overcast skies will continue into tonight. Multiple guidances
sources suggest fog development is likely again tonight. While
confidence in placement for a potential dense fog advisory is
still low at the current time, will continue to carry mention of
dense fog in the NDFD and HWO.

Short term attention turns to the shortwave lifting out of the
plains Monday. Precipitation associated wtih this system will
expand northeast across the area beginning likely later in the
day Monday for most areas. There has been a continued trend to
see precipitation moving into SEMO earlier in the morning.
Looking at forecast soundings and planviews there isn`t much
sign of instability and chances for thunderstorms will likely be
pretty low. The forecast will continue to forgo the mention of
thunder. Rain will continue through Monday night before coming
to an end west to east Tuesday morning. The previous discussion
mentioned some guidance continues rain chances into Tuesday
night and there are still signals of this in the guidance. There
may be periods of moderate to heavy rain Monday night tied
strengthening low level convergence. Northwest portions of the
forecast area are only expected to see QPF amounts of a quarter
to half an inch while three quarters to 1 inch is expected for
much of the rest of the area.

The cold front passage Tuesday night is expecting to bring dry
conditions back to the area Wednesday through Friday. The dry
airmass will also come with colder temperatures. High
temperatures Wednesday will only warm into the upper 40s to
lower 50s and low 40s to near 50 on Thanksgiving and Friday.
Temperatures fall into the 20s Wednesday and Thursday night.

The weekend will bring a return to southerly flow and
increasing temperatures while troughing becomes established
across the western half of the country. Models are still in
disagreement on the potential timing of individual waves of
energy that eject from the base of this trough. The forecast
continues to suggest rain chances making a return to the area as
early as Saturday morning with the higher chances late Saturday
through Sunday. Early Saturday, it may be just cold enough
aloft for a mix of rain and snow across portions of southern
Illinois before it changes over to rain. High temperatures will
slowly rise into the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday and low
to mid 50s Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Poor flight conditions are expected to continue today and
tonight although confidence is still somewhat low. Most of the
dense fog has now lifted, but most terminals are still seeing
IFR to LIFR ceilings. Recent satellite trends show some
improvements in cloud cover although at this point, overcast
skies remain at the terminals. While some scattering is
forecast, there remains the possibility that broken to overcast
skies rule. Low ceilings are expected tonight, again IFR to
LIFR. Guidance continues to be aggressive in fog development
yet again and the TAFs represent that with dense fog prevailing
at most sites. Some sites may bounce around but would expect
visibility restrictions to continue. Late in the period Monday,
some limited improvements to cigs are possible with PROB30s for
rain mainly after 15Z for CGI/PAH.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...AD