136
FXUS63 KPAH 111143
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will moderate closer to normal values today, but
  winds from the southwest will be breezy at times.

- From Wednesday through the weekend, temperatures will trend
  well above normal, with high temperatures in the lower 70s
  forecast this weekend.

- Other than a slight chance of rain early Friday morning, the
  next chance of widespread rain is forecast Sunday into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

After a chilly start with low temperatures in the lower to
middle 20s this morning, temperatures will begin to moderate
closer to normal this afternoon. As surface high pressure
approaches from the west, southwest gradient winds will be
breezy at times, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph possible.

As the deep Canadian trough begins to shift to the east, H5
heights will rise from west to east today through the end of
the week as the region transitions into northwest baroclinic
flow. By Friday, the trough will become centered over the area
through this weekend. Temperatures will warm to 5-10 degrees
above normal Wednesday and Thursday, then 10-15 degrees above
normal Friday through this weekend. In fact, the current
forecast high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s Friday and
Saturday, will be approaching record values.

A weak passing trough will bring a small chance of rain early
Friday morning, but the next chance of widespread rain showers
is forecast Sunday into early next week. Confidence in the
forecast during this time has decreased since yesterday.

Some ensemble guidance (like the GEFS) still brings a surface
low across the region on Sunday, but the ECMWF ensemble has
trended much slower breaking down the H5 ridging. This would
keep the region dry until Monday or Tuesday next week. The NBM
initialization has chance PoPs through this entire period (not
atypical behavior), but it is probable that times with dry
conditions will be added to the forecast during this period as
the timing comes into better focus.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 542 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Gradient winds from the southwest will increase and become gusty
at times from late morning through this afternoon, sustained
around 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts before relaxing to 6-10
kts tonight. As winds relax, low-level wind shear will be an
issue tonight, with 40-50 kts of shear in the lowest 2000ft.
Cloud cover will be limited to passing high cirrus.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS