294
FXUS63 KPAH 271858
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1258 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...


- A potent disturbance will impact the area Saturday. The
  precipitation will begin as snow or a rain/snow mix in the
  morning before changing to all rain Saturday afternoon.

- Light snow accumulations are possible, particuarly across
  areas near Interstate 64 Saturday. Significant travel impacts
  remain but isolated impacts cannot be ruled out.

- Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue into early
  next week. Another system may bring additional chances for
  wintry precipitation Monday night into Tuesday, but forecast
  confidence remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1258 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Main focus today remains on the Saturday system with a fairly
strong shortwave trough spinning up a cyclone that passes to our
northwest. A strong warm-advection and DCVA combination provide
ample lift over surface air that is at or just above freezing
but quite dry. Precip looks to begin in our western counties
between midnight and 3 am or so Saturday morning, expanding
eastward through sunrise and lasting until a cold front sweeps
through in the afternoon.

This setup is somewhat climatologically unusual as the warm
side of a cyclone is rarely the locale of wintry precip in the
region, particularly in November. The system depends on wet-
bulb, and perhaps dynamical cooling, aloft to generate
snow/sleet in the morning changing over to rain during the day.
Deterministic GFS runs are about 3 degrees too cold today with
dewpoints and the overall current airmass, where the ECMWF is
closer. Resultingly the ECMWF has a slightly faster changeover
to rain as temperatures warm during the day. The
challenges/concerns at the moment:

1) Snow in warm-sector/warm advection regime is a little unusual
for us and makes us a touch skeptical despite the guidance. It
would take very little overachieving of the warm advection
compared to what is currently modeled to result in an all-rain
event.

2) The lift is going to be fairly phased and strong which could
result in stronger dynamical cooling aloft (which the
deterministic GFS seems to show if you dig into 850-700 mb
temps) as well as releasing some convective instability. If you
get a pocket of pseudo-convective snow with high rates in the
morning hours the potential for localized travel impacts will be
there - on one of the busier travel days of the year. It looks
like the potential is maximized for that north of our area, but
it doesn`t appear to be zero in our northwest.

3) With the warm-advection forecast aloft I think the potential
for a little sleet mix-in is higher than currently modeled and
that would eat at totals of course.

In all keeping the general message of the forecast intact with
light snow accumulations possible across much of the area. The
totals are a little lower than the previous cycle across parts
of SEMO. Borderline advisory level snow is forecast across our
northern counties and if there is sufficient snow for some
degree of travel impact it will likely be along and north of a
line from Perryville, MO northeastward to about Princeton, IN.
It is too early/confidence is too low for an advisory right now
but it is possible one will become necessary in the coming
hours.

A deeper trough develops a storm system over the southeastern US
Monday. This system generates precip, likely a mix of freezing
rain and snow based on the current modeling, that might be
sufficient for impacts over parts of southwestern Kentucky. The
exact shape of the parent trough as it moves through has been
shuffling a bit run-to-run and model-to-model and this will have
a big impact on what, if anything, ultimately comes of it. A
front then swoops through and keeps us in a below normal
temperature regime for the remainder of the forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A swatch of clouds at around 3000 ft over southwest Indiana and
southern Illinois should continue to dissipate as the afternoon
progresses. VFR conditions are forecast for the remainder of the
period with gusty northwest winds becoming lighter and more
northerly overnight. &&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&


$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...JGG