


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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494 FXUS63 KPAH 181143 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through late tonight. Damaging wind gusts, a brief tornado or two, and localized flooding issues will be the main threats. - Breezy, dry and, cooler conditions are forecast Sunday. Northwest winds gusts of 25 to 35 mph are forecast during the afternoon. - A return of mainly dry and seasonably mild conditions are expected most of next week, with a small chance of rain forecast late in the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 257 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Ongoing low-end severe thunderstorm forecast for today looks on track from previous forecasts. Expecting an H5 trough phase over the region tonight into Sunday with surface low pressure deepening as it moves as it moves across MO and IL Saturday moving northeastward. Strong WAA will allow high temperatures to climb into the middle to upper 80s this afternoon (near or at record high values) along with dew point temperatures rising into the lower to middle 60s. This will yield about 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE by the afternoon across southeast MO into southern IL, with lesser values further to the east. Expecting a prefrontal trough to kick off isolated to widely scattered storms in this area by mid-afternoon, with the activity quickly growing upscale into an MCS by late afternoon/early evening. The storm complex will push eastward and weaken as instability wanes during the late evening hours, eventually exiting the region by Sunday morning. SPC has maintained the slight risk over nearly the entire forecast area. While instability will be limited and falling with the loss of diurnal heating, increasing upper- level wind support and a low- level jet developing should compensate a bit. The main risks look to be isolated damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two along the leading edge of the MCS during the late afternoon and evening hours. The initial storm development could also produce some marginally severe hail. Folks with outdoor plans should stay aware of the latest forecast information and have place to see shelter should lightning or severe thunderstorms threaten. Event total rainfall amounts have stayed steady around 0.75-1.50", with locally higher amounts over 2.0" possible over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Given the recent dry conditions, am not too concerned about flash flooding, but some minor flooding issues cannot be ruled out where the heaviest totals occur. The cold front will push through the area Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, bringing drying conditions and clearing skies. Winds from the NW may become gusty at times Sunday afternoon (25 to 35 mph). Temperatures will return to near or slightly below values Sunday, with this trend continuing through much of next week. A couple of passing weak disturbances will bring small rain chances Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Quiet conditions this morning will give way to increasing thunderstorm coverage from west to east this afternoon through late tonight as a cold front moves through the area. Cigs and vsbys will be VFR outside of thunderstorm activity through the afternoon, but heavy thunderstorms elements could bring MVFR or IFR restrictions. MVFR low stratus will trail the post-frontal precipitation through the remainder of the forecast period. Gradient winds will increase from the S-SW, sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of 18-24 kts this afternoon through the overnight. Very late in the period, winds will become veer to the WSW. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DWS DISCUSSION...DWS AVIATION...DWS