560
FXUS63 KPAH 110808
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
308 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool temperatures linger one more day, as early morning lows
  in the upper 40`s to upper 50`s only rise to the upper 70s to
  near 80 today.

- Heat and humidity arrive the second half of the week through
  the weekend with highs in the 90s.

- Aside from a slight chance of rain in the far north Thursday
  night, dry weather is expected through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Clear skies and calm winds under high pressure have led to low
dew points and temperatures likely to fall to around 50 in the
Evansville Tri-State early this morning, with localized spots in
the 40s. Below normal temperatures continue today with highs
only reaching the upper 70s to near 80. Today will have the
driest conditions of the forecast period, with afternoon
humidity dropping below 30% in Southwest Indiana.

Upper troughing moves further east today allowing for a more
zonal pattern aloft to emerge with increasing 500 mb heights. As
a result, temperatures warm to the mid-80s on Wednesday as
high pressure covers the southeast. Southerly flow Thursday
sends temperatures surging to around 90.

There is some uncertainty Thursday night into Friday as ensemble
members bring a cold front southward towards the Quad State.
Most ensemble members have the precipitation diminish with this
system on approach even as the front makes it at least partially
through the Quad State. A few ensemble members linger showers
and a rumble or two of thunder in the north, with the NBM
showing a slight chance north of I-64. Temperatures are more
uncertain Friday as any sort of cold air intrusion would at
least slow the warming trend so the highs were nudged a bit
lower relative to the NBM for Friday.

Saturday brings renewed ridging over the Mississippi River
Valley and southeasterly flow as a system developing in the
Central Plains moves northeastward towards the Upper Midwest.
The front reverses course, lifting back north of the Quad State,
allowing the warming trend to resume. Sunday currently appears
to be the warmest in the forecast with highs in the mid-90s and
heat indices around 100, slightly below the NBM initialization.
Southerly flow pulls in moisture from the Gulf, which may lead
to rain early next week. A rainy system, especially one
originating in the Gulf, would likely lead to cooler
temperatures with higher dew points keeping heat indices
elevated.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1051 PM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions with light winds expected through this TAF
issuance as high pressure remains in control of the weather
across the Quad State.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ATL
AVIATION...KC