560
FXUS63 KPAH 030353
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
953 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly cloudy and cold tonight with the potential for areas
  of freezing fog to develop.

- Cold, winter-like temperatures hold thru the entire week with
  lows each night falling into the teens and 20s. Single digit
  wind chills are forecast late Wednesday night into early
  Thursday morning for northern portions of southeast Missouri
  and southern Illinois.

- A couple chances for low end precipitation chances are
  possible later this week and late weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

The latest model guidance has trended in a more aggressive
direction with the freezing fog development overnight across the
Ozark Foothills. The worst period of the fog looks to be between
3 and 9 AM. Coordinated with our neighbors at NWS Springfield to
issue a Freezing Fog Advisory for this strip across
southern/southeast Missouri beginning at midnight through 9 AM
CST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Surface high pressure is settling across the region this
afternoon after the passage of our winter storm system that
brought some wintry precipitation to the area. Satellite imagery
still indicates cloud cover blankets the region with some
breaks in the clouds now being seen in SEMO. Gradual clearing is
expected later this afternoon and into the overnight at least
west of the MS river, but it may be awhile longer before areas
east of the river clear out. Low temperatures in the lower 20s
will be common tonight with upper teens possible across the
north. Areas of freezing fog is possible tonight into Wednesday
morning.

Surface high pressure breaks down and translates eastward
Wednesday before a weak dry front moves across the region. Can`t
rule out a brief snow flurry or two north of I-64. Behind the
front, high pressure plunges across the Midwest and moves into
the Ohio Valley by late in the week. Highs Thursday may struggle
to get to freezing across much of the area but quickly rise
into the upper 30s to 40s Friday and through the weekend. Lows
in the 20s will be common much of this week with upper teens
expected Thursday night. Wind chills may get into the single
digits late Wednesday night into Thursday morning for northern
portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Much of
the rest of the forecast is generally dry although we still
watch for the potential for another system or two that may bring
light wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday morning,
and again on Sunday although a lot of uncertainty still exists
on moisture availability.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will be the rule until they aren`t. Guidance is
not handling them well. The LAMP guidance has been the best by
far, so decided to follow it closely for clearing. Clearing is
not likely until the afternoon, and should progress from
northwest to southeast. In addition, the ceilings are likely to
descend into IFR levels in the 09Z-15Z period, before lifting
back to MVFR. Latest satellite imagery does show a slight
eastward progression for the west edge of the clouds, but figure
that will cease shortly. If it were to clear KCGI, dense
freezing fog may develop.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for MOZ100-
     107>109.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DRS