506
FXUS63 KPAH 252003
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
203 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds and much colder temperatures are forecast
  Wednesday, and a Wind Advisory has been issued for a small
  part of southeast Illinois and southwest Indiana.

- Chilly but mostly sunny weather is forecast for Thanksgiving
  and Friday.

- An active weather pattern is forecast to arrive this weekend
  into early next week, with multiple chances for precipitation
  and below normal temperatures.

- Forecast confidence is very low, but some minor snow
  accumulations cannot be ruled out Saturday and again Sunday
  night into Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Surface low pressure that has brought plentiful cloud cover,
fog, and drizzle has exiting the area to the east. This will
bring clearing skies and dry conditions overnight. However, a
cold front associated with strong and deepening surface low over
the Upper Great Lakes will push through the region early
Wednesday morning. This will bring a push of much cold air into
the area for Wednesday as well as blustery gradient winds from
the W-NW. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 40s,
about 10-15 degrees colder than Tuesday`s high temperatures.

Across our far northern/northeastern tier of counties in SE IL
and SW IN, wind gusts will meet or exceed Wind Advisory
conditions (40 mph) beginning in the predawn hours through
early afternoon. Have coordinated with our neighboring offices
in Lincoln and Indianapolis to issue a Wind Advisory for this
area from 09-21z Wednesday.

Canadian high pressure will build into the Midwest for
Thanksgiving and Friday, bringing a return of plentiful sunshine
but continued chilly temperatures. High temperatures on
Thanksgiving will again reach the middle to upper 40s. On
Friday, H5 troughing will deepen across the eastern CONUS, and
temperatures will be a bit colder, in the upper 30s to lower
40s.

The forecast for Saturday into early next week remains
incredibly convoluted, and confidence has actually decreased
since yesterday. There has been a trend towards a more
suppressed, much drier and colder outcome for this period, and
it has resulted in a downshift in forecast temperatures and much
lower QPF. Ensemble guidance is all over the place with the
timing and placement of systems and just how deep and entrenched
the cold dome over the eastern CONUS will be.

As is typical, the NBM is smushing together all the cold air and
precipitation chances, yielding extended periods of rain, snow,
or a mix of both. It is really difficult to suss out exactly
when the precipitation chances will be collocated with sub-
freezing temperatures.

At this time, the latest forecast does have minor snow
accumulations of a few tenths up to 1" mainly Saturday morning
across the area. However, temperatures will warm above freezing
as they day progresses, so it is unclear if there will be
significant travel impacts. A second window for additional light
wintry precipitation will be Sunday night into Monday, but
confidence is even lower on this potential (and precipitation
types). The best thing to do will be continue to check for
updates as we go through the next couple of days until things
become clearer.

QPF for this period has been cut by a half or more with this
forecast, with most areas standing to see about 0.75 to 1.25" of
rain or liquid equivalent. Such a large change does not inspire
a lot of reassurance that additional major chances are still in
store with later forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Low clouds, fog and drizzle will lift and diminish from west to
east this afternoon and early this evening as an area of low
pressure centered over the region exits to the east. This will
bring a return of VFR conditions by late tonight. However, a
powerful cold front will push through the region between 06-12z,
and winds will increase from the W-NW, sustained at 12-18 kts
with gusts around 24-30 kts through the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM CST Wednesday for ILZ076>078.
MO...None.
IN...Wind Advisory from 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ to 3 PM CST /4 PM EST/
     Wednesday for INZ081-082.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS