879
FXUS63 KPAH 081117
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
517 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog will continue to impact parts of southeast
  Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky through the
  mid-morning hours.

- A cold front will bring a chance of light rain showers
  tonight, mainly east of the Mississippi River.

- A brief shot of bitter cold air will impact the region Sunday
  through Tuesday. Morning wind chill values will fall into the
  teens and 20s. A few flurries or light snow showers are also
  possible east of the Mississippi River.

- A major warmup and dry conditions are expected for the rest
  of the work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of dense fog continue to impact parts of southeast
Missouri, southern Illinois, and western Kentucky early this
morning. Expecting the fog to persist through the mid-morning
hours as calm winds and low-level saturation will be difficult
to dislodge. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 15z.

Ahead of another approaching cold front, today will be mild with
a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will range from
65-72F from north to south. Tonight, isolated to scattered light
rain showers will develop just ahead of the frontal passage. At
this time, the best forcing for any rain looks to be east of the
Mississippi River. Any rain that does fall will be light,
generally 0.10" or less.

Following the passage of the cold front, a wave of bitter Arctic
air will move into the region from Sunday through Tuesday. Winds
Sunday will be blustery from the northwest, sustained at 10-15
mph with gusts of 20-30 through the day. Temperatures at 850 mb
will fall to -9 to -12C by Monday, which is the 1st percentile,
for this time of year. This will bring high temperatures about
15 to 20 degrees below normal Sunday and Monday. High
temperatures Sunday will only reach the middle to upper 40s, and
low temperatures Monday morning will dip into the lower to
middle 20s.

Wind chill values Monday morning will be bitter, only 10-20F.
High temperatures Monday will only reach the upper 30s to lower
40s. Northerly flow will bring lake effect clouds into the
region off Lake Michigan, and there could be a few areas of
flurries or light snow showers, especially in southwest
Indiana.

The early taste of winter will be short-lived, and as H5 height
rise from west to east, temperatures will quickly start to
rebound back to normal values beginning Tuesday. By Wednesday,
temperatures will actually be slightly above normal, in the
lower to middle 60s, and this will continue through the end of
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

LIFR/VLIFR fog impacting PAH and OWB will gradually dissipate by
15z ahead of an approaching cold front. The rest of the morning
and afternoon will see mainly high cirrus clouds with steady
W-SW winds around 4-7 kts. Tonight, this cold front will pass
through the region, brining lower cloud bases to MVFR conditions
and a chance of showers invof MVN/EVV/OWB through 06-12z Sunday.
Winds will shift to the NW and increase, sustained at 10-15 kts
with gusts of 20-25 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ILZ086>094.
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MOZ087-
     110>112-114.
IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for INZ088.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...DWS
AVIATION...DWS